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Cited by 11,386Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementGlobal Health and EpidemiologyHealthcare Systems and Public Health

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

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Mathers, Colin D, Loncar, Dejan·2006·PLoS Medicine
DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442PMC PMC1664601
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. CONCLUSIONS: These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

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  • The global burdens of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and obesity are increasing and cause large losses of life and disability-adjusted life-years in both developed and developing countries.

    “The global burdens of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), and obesity are rising, producing enormous losses of life and disability-adjusted life-years in both developed and developing nations.1”

    From Components of a Cardioprotective Diet: New Insights (2011) · cites this paper as [1]

  • Cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and adiposity produce tremendous burdens of deaths, lost quality of life, and economic disruption globally.

    “Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus, and adiposity produce tremendous burdens of deaths, lost quality of life, and economic disruption globally.1,2”

    From Population Approaches to Improve Diet, Physical Activity, and Smoking Habits: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2012) · cites this paper as [1]

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  1. Murray CJL Lopez AD 1996 Alternative visions of the future: projecting mortality and disability, 1990–2020 Murray CJL Lopez AD The global burden of disease Cambridge (Massachusetts) Harvard University Press 325 397

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Authors
Mathers, C. D., & Loncar, D.
Affiliations
World Health Organization (CH)
Corresponding author
Mathers, Colin D
ORCID
Mathers, Colin D
Venue
PLoS Medicine
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2006-11-28
Volume
3
Issue
11
Pages
e442
ISSN
  • 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
  • 1549-1676
DOI
10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442
PMC
PMC1664601
OpenAlex
W2054931962
Cited by
11,386
References
33
Citations by year
2026: 205 · 2025: 373 · 2024: 586 · 2023: 646 · 2022: 671 · 2021: 738 · 2020: 801 · 2019: 833 · 2018: 855 · 2017: 787 · 2016: 796 · 2015: 844 · 2014: 709 · 2013: 627 · 2012: 490
FWCI
592.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • World Health Organization
  • Strong
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Global Health and Epidemiology
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
Keywords
disease burden, non-communicable diseases, HIV mortality, communicable disease mortality, child mortality, economic development scenarios, age distribution of deaths, body mass index, human capital, income and mortality, death registration data
MeSH terms
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Developing Countries, Epidemiology, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Mortality, Smoking, Global Health, HIV Infections

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