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Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq

Open access
Berman, Eli, Shapiro, Jacob N., Felter, Joseph H.·2011·Journal of Political Economy

Abstract

We develop and test an economic theory of insurgency motivated by the informal literature and by recent military doctrine. We model a three-way contest between violent rebels, a government seeking to minimize violence by mixing service provision and coercion, and civilians deciding whether to share information about insurgents. We test the model using panel data from Iraq on violence against Coalition and Iraqi forces, reconstruction spending, and community characteristics (sectarian status, socioeconomic grievances, and natural resource endowments). Our results support the theory’s predictions: improved service provision reduces insurgent violence, particularly for smaller projects and since the “surge” began in 2007.

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Metadata

Authors
Berman, E., Shapiro, J. N., & Felter, J. H.
Venue
Journal of Political Economy
Published
2011-08
Volume
119
Issue
4
Pages
766-819
ISSN
  • 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-534X
OpenAlex
W2891952862
Cited by
694
References
2
FWCI
240.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
gold

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1086/661983
The paper
Berman, E., Shapiro, J. N., & Felter, J. H. (2011). Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/661983

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.