The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
Open accessAbstract
In advanced economies, a century-long, near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This “financial hockey stick” coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and financial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.
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Cites
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
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Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.2.1029 · Cited by 2,647
Self-citationA Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector
Brunnermeier, M. K., & Sannikov, Y. (2014) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.104.2.379 · Cited by 1,969
Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?
McConnell, M. M., & Perez-Quiros, G. (2000) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.90.5.1464 · Cited by 1,867
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Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation
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Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach*
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An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates
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Cited by
Finance, discipline, and the labour share in the long-run: France (1911–2010) and Sweden (1891–2000)
Gouzoulis, G. (2021) · British Journal of Industrial Relations · doi:10.1111/bjir.12576 · Cited by 31
What do indebted employees do? Financialisation and the decline of industrial action
Gouzoulis, G. (2023) · Industrial Relations Journal · doi:10.1111/irj.12391 · Cited by 21
Metadata
- Authors
- Jordà, Ò., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M.
- Venue
- NBER Macroeconomics Annual
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 213-263
- ISSN
- 0889-3365 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-2642
- OpenAlex
- W3123381758
- Cited by
- 486
- References
- 24
- FWCI
- 70.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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