Current changes in tropical precipitation
Open accessAbstract
Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.
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Global climate models are unable to simulate the interannual variability in tropical precipitation extremes when compared to observations.
“or to simulate the interannual variability in tropical precipitation extremes when compared to observations [2, 3]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [3]
Section 3, “Precipitation extremes in the tropical ocean wet region” (page not provided), reports differences between modeled and observed interannual variation, and an ensemble response to warming smaller than observed. But it also finds that the model ensemble reproduces the association between warm El Niño years and more frequent heavy rain, while several individual models capture the observed response. The categorical claim that global climate models are unable to simulate this variability overstates the paper’s findings. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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- Authors
- Allan, R. P., Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W., & Good, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Reading (GB)
- University of Miami (US)
- Met Office (GB)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2010-04
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 025205
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2136381431
- Cited by
- 275
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 15.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Office of Science
- Natural Environment Research Council (earth010002, NE/D012287/1, GA 01101, ncas10009, jwcrp01002, NE/G015708/1, NE/C51785X/1)
- National Centre for Earth Observation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, GPCP, SSM/I, climate model simulation, precipitation frequency, tropical ocean warming
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