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How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?

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O’Gorman, P A, Muller, C J·2010·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207
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Abstract

The factors governing the rate of change in the amount of atmospheric water vapor are analyzed in simulations of climate change. The global-mean amount of water vapor is estimated to increase at a differential rate of 7.3 % K − 1 with respect to global-mean surface air temperature in the multi-model mean. Larger rates of change result if the fractional change is evaluated over a finite change in temperature (e.g., 8.2 % K − 1 for a 3 K warming), and rates of change of zonal-mean column water vapor range from 6 to 12 % K − 1 depending on latitude. Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is directly evaluated using an invariant distribution of monthly-mean relative humidity, giving a rate of 7.4 % K − 1 for global-mean water vapor. There are deviations from Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of zonal-mean column water vapor in the tropics and mid-latitudes, but they largely cancel in the global mean. A purely thermodynamic scaling based on a saturated troposphere gives a higher global rate of 7.9 % K − 1 . Surface specific humidity increases at a rate of 5.7 % K − 1 , considerably lower than the rate for global-mean water vapor. Surface specific humidity closely follows Clausius–Clapeyron scaling over ocean. But there are widespread decreases in surface relative humidity over land (by more than 1 % K − 1 in many regions), and it is argued that decreases of this magnitude could result from the land/ocean contrast in surface warming.

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  • The thermodynamic contribution in these simulations is close to what would be expected from scaling of precipitation extremes with surface specific humidity, and this implies a lower rate of increase than scaling with column water vapor.

    “The thermodynamic contribution in these simulations is close to what would be expected from scaling of precipitation extremes with surface specific humidity, and this implies a lower rate of increase than scaling with column water vapor [60].”

    From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [60]

    The Conclusions (section 6; page unavailable) say that, under specified assumptions, precipitation rates can roughly scale with surface specific humidity, and that this would imply a lower rate of increase than scaling with column water vapor. The paper does not report that the thermodynamic contribution to precipitation extremes in its simulations actually follows that scaling; its simulations compare changes in water vapor. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Authors
O’Gorman, P. A., & Muller, C. J.
Affiliations
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
ORCID
Muller, C J
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2010-04
Volume
5
Issue
2
Pages
025207
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207
OpenAlex
W2149701235
Cited by
326
References
33
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 8
FWCI
10.10
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords
Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, atmospheric water vapor, climate change simulation, column water vapor, surface relative humidity, land-ocean contrast, surface warming, relative humidity distribution, troposphere

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