Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model
Open accessAbstract
A cloud-resolving model is used to investigate the effect of warming on high percentiles of precipitation (precipitation extremes) in the idealized setting of radiative-convective equilibrium. While this idealized setting does not allow for several factors that influence precipitation in the tropics, it does allow for an evaluation of the response of precipitation extremes to warming in simulations with resolved rather than parameterized convection. The methodology developed should also be applicable to less idealized simulations. Modeled precipitation extremes are found to increase in magnitude in response to an increase in sea surface temperature. A dry static energy budget is used to relate the changes in precipitation extremes to changes in atmospheric temperature, vertical velocity, and precipitation efficiency. To first order, the changes in precipitation extremes are captured by changes in the mean temperature structure of the atmosphere. Changes in vertical velocities play a secondary role and tend to weaken the strength of precipitation extremes, despite an intensification of updraft velocities in the upper troposphere. The influence of changes in condensate transports on precipitation extremes is quantified in terms of a precipitation efficiency; it does not change greatly with warming. Tropical precipitation extremes have previously been found to increase at a greater fractional rate than the amount of atmospheric water vapor in observations of present-day variability and in some climate model simulations with parameterized convection. But the fractional increases in precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable in magnitude to those in surface water vapor concentrations (owing to a partial cancellation between dynamical and thermodynamical changes), and are substantially less than the fractional increases in column water vapor.
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In radiative-convective equilibrium, both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the updraft velocities in the middle and upper troposphere increase with warming.
“Both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the updraft velocities in the middle and upper troposphere increase with warming in RCE [56, 70]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [56]
The Model and simulations section says the control and warm simulations were run to statistical radiative-convective equilibrium, and the Conclusions report increased CAPE and greater overall updraft velocities in the warm simulation. But Section 6 says vertical velocity can increase or decrease depending on the level; it does not establish an increase throughout the middle and upper troposphere. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredFor surface temperatures near those of the present-day tropics, the precipitation extremes increase at close to the thermodynamic rate, and this is close to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling with the surface specific humidity, with relatively small contributions from changes in vertical velocities and precipitation efficiency.
“For surface temperatures near those of the present-day tropics, the precipitation extremes increase at close to the thermodynamic rate, and this is close to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling with the surface specific humidity, with relatively small contributions from changes in vertical velocities and precipitation efficiency [56, 70, 77].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [56]
Updrafts do become somewhat faster with warming when lapse rates are allowed to equilibrate rather than being imposed in simulations of RCE, although the dynamical contribution to changes in precipitation extremes is still relatively small.
“As discussed in the “Theory” section, updrafts do become somewhat faster with warming when lapse rates are allowed to equilibrate (rather than being imposed) in simulations of RCE, although the dynamical contribution to changes in precipitation extremes is still relatively small [56, 70, 77].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [56]
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- Authors
- Muller, C. J., O’Gorman, P. A., & Back, L. E.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Muller, Caroline J.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2011-06-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2784-2800
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2036679751
- Cited by
- 234
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 10.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- University of Texas at Austin
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, global warming, radiative-convective equilibrium, cloud-resolving model, sea surface temperature, vertical velocity, precipitation efficiency, tropical precipitation, water vapor, updrafts
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