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A scenario analysis of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of a new residential area
Open accessAbstract
While buildings are often credited as accounting for some 40% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the construction phase is typically assumed to account for only around one tenth of the overall emissions. However, the relative importance of construction phase emissions is quickly increasing as the energy efficiency of buildings increases. In addition, the significance of construction may actually be much higher when the temporal perspective of the emissions is taken into account. The construction phase carbon spike, i.e. high GHG emissions in a short time associated with the beginning of the building's life cycle, may be high enough to question whether new construction, no matter how energy efficient the buildings are, can contribute to reaching the greenhouse gas mitigation goals of the near future. Furthermore, the construction of energy efficient buildings causes more GHG emissions than the construction of conventional buildings. On the other hand, renovating the current building stock together with making energy efficiency improvements might lead to a smaller construction phase carbon spike and still to the same reduced energy consumption in the use phase as the new energy efficient buildings. The study uses a new residential development project in Northern Europe to assess the overall life cycle GHG emissions of a new residential area and to evaluate the influence of including the temporal allocation of the life cycle GHG emissions in the assessment. In the study, buildings with different energy efficiency levels are compared with a similar hypothetical area of buildings of the average existing building stock, as well as with a renovation of an area with average buildings from the 1960s. The GHG emissions are modeled with a hybrid life cycle assessment. The study suggests that the carbon payback time of constructing new residential areas is several decades long even when using very energy efficient buildings compared to utilizing the current building stock. Thus, while increasing the overall energy efficiency is important in the long term, the construction of new energy efficient buildings cannot be used as a means to achieve the short term and medium term climate change mitigation goals as cities and governments often suggest. Furthermore, given the magnitude of the carbon spike from construction and its implications, the climate change mitigation strategies should set reduction targets for the construction phase emissions alongside the ones for the use phase, which currently receives almost all of the attention from policy-makers.
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“In light of medium-term climate targets and the carbon spike produced with new construction, this research shows that building new runs counter to climate targets (Säynäjoki et al. 2012).”
From Making embodied carbon mainstream: a framework for cities to leverage waste, equity, and preservation policy to reduce embodied emissions in buildings (2023) · cites this paper as Säynäjoki et al. 2012
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“A study of a new conventional residential development in Finland revealed that over the 50-year time horizon relevant to climate targets, the emissions from a comparable renovation were 35% lower.”
From Making embodied carbon mainstream: a framework for cities to leverage waste, equity, and preservation policy to reduce embodied emissions in buildings (2023) · cites this paper as Säynäjoki et al. 2012
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Principles of GHG emissions assessment of wooden building products
Häkkinen, T., & Haapio, A. (2013) · International Journal of Sustainable Building Technology and Urban Development · doi:10.1080/2093761x.2013.862512 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Säynäjoki, A., Heinonen, J., & Junnila, S.
- Affiliations
- Aalto University (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Säynäjoki, Antti
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2012-09-01
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 034037
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2081513843
- Cited by
- 147
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 9
- FWCI
- 7.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-sa
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Aaltodoc (Aalto University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Sustainable Building Design and Assessment
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building energy efficiency and sustainability
- Keywords
- construction phase emissions, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, residential buildings, energy efficiency, carbon payback time, building renovation, climate change mitigation, hybrid life cycle assessment, scenario analysis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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