The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints
Open accessAbstract
In our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries' capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce on their own territory the crop products that they currently import from other countries. Scenarios of increased crop productivity and water use, cropland expansion (excluding areas prioritized for other uses) and population change are accounted for. We found that currently 16% of the world population use the opportunities of international trade to cover their demand for agricultural products. Population change may strongly increase the number of people depending on ex situ land and water resources up to about 5.2 billion (51% of world population) in the SRES A2r scenario. International trade will thus have to intensify if population growth is not accompanied by dietary change towards less resource-intensive products, by cropland expansion, or by productivity improvements, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Up to 1.3 billion people may be at risk of food insecurity in 2050 in present low-income economies (mainly in Africa), if their economic development does not allow them to afford productivity increases, cropland expansion and/or imports from other countries.
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Cites
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People
Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S. M., & Toulmin, C. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1185383 · Cited by 11,943
Solutions for a cultivated planet
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Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000
Ramankutty, N., Evan, A. T., Monfreda, C., & Foley, J. A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002952 · Cited by 1,942
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Resource-Conserving Agriculture Increases Yields in Developing Countries
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Pawlak, K., & Kołodziejczak, M. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12135488 · Cited by 988
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
Gerten, D., Heck, V., Jägermeyr, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Fetzer, I., Jalava, M., Kummu, M., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Schaphoff, S., et al. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1 · Cited by 677
Self-citationNational food production stabilized by crop diversity
Renard, D., & Tilman, D. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1316-y · Cited by 623
A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005
Siebert, S., Kummu, M., Porkka, M., Döll, P., Ramankutty, N., & Scanlon, B. R. (2015) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015 · Cited by 519
Metadata
- Authors
- Fader, M., Gerten, D., Krause, M., Lucht, W., & Cramer, W.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2013-03-01
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 014046
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2139844307
- Cited by
- 335
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 27.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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