Sea level rise and coastal flooding threaten affordable housing
Open accessAbstract
The frequency of coastal floods around the United States has risen sharply over the last few decades, and rising seas point to further future acceleration. Residents of low-lying affordable housing, who tend to be low-income persons living in old and poor quality structures, are especially vulnerable. To elucidate the equity implications of sea level rise (SLR), we provide the first nationwide assessment of recent and future risks to affordable housing from SLR and coastal flooding in the United States. By using high-resolution building footprints and probability distributions for both local flood heights and SLR, we identify the coastal states and cities where affordable housing—both subsidized and market-driven—is most at risk of flooding. We provide estimates of both the expected number of affordable housing units exposed to extreme coastal water levels and of how often those units may be at risk of flooding. The number of affordable units exposed in the United States is projected to more than triple by 2050. New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have the largest number of units exposed to extreme water levels both in absolute terms and as a share of their affordable housing stock. Some top-ranked cities could experience numerous coastal floods reaching higher than affordable housing sites each year. As the top 20 cities account for 75% of overall exposure, limited, strategic and city-level efforts may be able to address most of the challenge of preserving coastal-area affordable housing stock.
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An earlier study of NYC found that the non-Hispanic Black population in a 100-year floodplain (relative to what is expected based on population size) was nearly 60% higher in Manhattan, 40% higher in the Bronx, and nearly 100% higher in Queens, whereas the non-Hispanic White population was approximately 100% higher in the Bronx and 40% higher in Brooklyn.
“An earlier study of NYC found that the non-Hispanic Black population in a 100-year floodplain (relative to what is expected based on population size) was nearly 60% higher in Manhattan, 40% higher in the Bronx, and nearly 100% higher in Queens, whereas the non-Hispanic White population was approximately 100% higher in the Bronx and 40% higher in Brooklyn.”
From NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City (2024) · cites this paper as [151]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMany community-based environmental justice organizations may have community-based plans and initiatives for equitable climate adaptation that can be leveraged with City agencies to produce multiple benefits.
“They may also have community-based plans and initiatives for equitable climate adaptation that can be leveraged with City agencies to produce multiple benefits.151,164,168”
From NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City (2024) · cites this paper as [151]
Section 3.3 discusses community resilience investments and public-private programs for affordable housing, but does not say that environmental justice organizations have adaptation plans that City agencies can leverage. Searches for community-led plans and partnerships with city agencies found no passage addressing that claim; page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.73)
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- Authors
- Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Cushing, L., Morello-Frosch, R., Nedwick, T., & Strauss, B.
- Affiliations
- Climate Central (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- National Housing Trust (US)
- Corresponding author
- Strauss, Benjamin
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2020-12-01
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 124020
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3109544571
- Cited by
- 80
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 7
- FWCI
- 3.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Oxfam America
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Housing Market and Economics
- Keywords
- sea level rise, coastal flooding, affordable housing, home equity, low-income populations, flood risk exposure, subsidized housing, extreme water levels, building footprints, coastal cities, climate change vulnerability, housing preservation
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