The DOI matches its Crossref record; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?1
Abstract
Over the past three years, there has been a convergence of interest in the global farm and food system and its contributions to feeding the world’s population as well as to ensuring the environmental sustainability of the planet. The 2007/2008 commodity crisis underscored the vulnerability of the global food system to shocks from extreme weather events, energy and financial markets, as well as government interventions in the form of export bans and other measures designed to avoid domestic adjustment to global scarcity. We have learned that a “perfect storm” in which all these factors coincide can have a devastating impact on the world’s poor, as well as putting considerable pressure on the world’s natural resource base. As we look ahead to the middle of this century, will such commodity price spikes become more commonplace? Will the world’s agricultural resource base be up to the task of meeting the diverse demands being placed on it?
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Global Consequences of Land Use
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1111772 · Cited by 13,272
Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices
Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., & Polasky, S. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01014 · Cited by 7,957
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151861 · Cited by 4,888
The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis
Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., & Müller, C. (2010) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004 · Cited by 587 · cited 7×
“Neumann et al. (2010) also find that market influence and irrigation are critical constraints in Central America and South Asian maize production.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialHertel, T. W., Golub, A. A., Jones, A. D., O'Hare, M., Plevin, R. J., & Kammen, D. M. (2010) · BioScience · doi:10.1525/bio.2010.60.3.8 · Cited by 554
Self-citationThe poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., & Lobell, D. B. (2010) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001 · Cited by 487
Self-citationA synthesis of information on rapid land-cover change for the period 1981–2000
LEPERS, E., LAMBIN, E. F., JANETOS, A. C., DeFRIES, R., ACHARD, F., RAMANKUTTY, N., & SCHOLES, R. J. (2005) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0115:asoior]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 478 · cited 1×
“To compound matters, water, a key input into agricultural production, is rapidly diminishing in availability in many parts of the world (McKinsey & Co 2009), and many soils are degrading (Lepers et al. 2005).”
BackgroundAgricultural Research, Productivity, and Food Prices in the Long Run
Alston, J. M., Beddow, J. M., & Pardey, P. G. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1170451 · Cited by 428
People on the Land: Changes in Global Population and Croplands during the 20thCentury
Ramankutty, N., Foley, J. A., & Olejniczak, N. J. (2002) · AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment · doi:10.1579/0044-7447-31.3.251 · Cited by 249 · cited 1×
“Ramankutty et al. (2006) point out that people have”
Cited by
Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050
Ray, D. K., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C., & Foley, J. A. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 · Cited by 3,415
A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., & Chhetri, N. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2153 · Cited by 2,333
The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., & Lobell, D. B. (2010) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001 · Cited by 487
Self-citationvan Asselen, S., & Verburg, P. H. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12331 · Cited by 411
Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply
Fukase, E., & Martin, W. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954 · Cited by 384
Metadata
- Authors
- Hertel, T. W.
- Venue
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-01
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 259-275
- ISSN
- 0002-9092 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-8276
- OpenAlex
- W1944604366
- Cited by
- 203
- References
- 9
- FWCI
- 17.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?1. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1093/ajae/aaq189
- The paper
- Hertel, T. W. (2011). The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?1. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaq189
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.