The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Open accessThe claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Many of the world's poorest regions are poised to be most adversely affected by rising average temperatures, aridity, and water stress, as well as through increasingly severe extreme weather events like drought or flooding; some feel this is already occurring.
“Many of the world’s poorest regions are poised to be most adversely affected by rising average temperatures, aridity, and water stress, as well as through increasingly severe extreme weather events like drought or flooding; in fact some feel this is already occurring (97–99).”
From Food Consumption and its Impact on Cardiovascular Disease: Importance of Solutions Focused on the Globalized Food System (2015) · cites this paper as [97]
Increasing sodium intake well beyond physiological requirements increases BP and CVD mortality.
“Increasing sodium intake well beyond physiological requirements increases BP (241–243) and CVD mortality (95–97).”
From Food Consumption and its Impact on Cardiovascular Disease: Importance of Solutions Focused on the Globalized Food System (2015) · cites this paper as [97]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398 · see citing works
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0906865106 · Cited by 3,420 · see citing works
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B. C., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, R., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W., Laprise, R., et al. (2007) · Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) · Cited by 3,177 · see citing works
Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., & Naylor, R. L. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152339 · Cited by 3,105 · see citing works
Self-citationParry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., de Strihou, J.-P. V. Y., & Palutikof, J. P. (2007) · Cited by 2,783 · see citing works
Global food security under climate change
Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0701976104 · Cited by 2,128 · see citing works
Potential impact of climate change on world food supply
Rosenzweig, C. E., & Parry, M. L. (1994) · Nature · doi:10.1038/367133a0 · Cited by 1,911 · see citing works
Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations
Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Nösberger, J., & Ort, D. R. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1114722 · Cited by 1,503 · see citing works
The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models
Jones, R. W. (1965) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/259084 · Cited by 1,305 · see citing works
Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080
Fischer, G., Shah, M. M., Tubiello, F. N., & van Velhuizen, H. (2005) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1744 · Cited by 1,041 · see citing works
Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country
(2007) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.45-2135 · Cited by 941 · see citing works
The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055
JONES, P., & Thornton, P. K. (2003) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00090-0 · Cited by 900 · see citing works
Food, fibre and forest products
Easterling, W. E., Aggarwal, P., Batima, P., Brander, K., Lin, E., Howden, M. S., Kirilenko, A., Morton, J. F., Soussana, J., Schmidhuber, J., et al. (2007) · HAL · Cited by 831 · see citing works
Climate change and world food security: a new assessment
Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C. E., IGLESIAS, A., Fischer, G., & Livermore, M. T. J. (1999) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(99)00018-7 · Cited by 552 · see citing works
Funk, C. C., Dettinger, M. D., Michaelsen, J. C., Verdin, J. P., Brown, M. E., Barlow, M. A., & Hoell, A. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0708196105 · Cited by 508 · see citing works
How did the world's poorest fare in the 1990s?
Chien, S., & Ravallion, M. D. (2001) · Review of Income and Wealth · doi:10.1111/1475-4991.00018 · Cited by 489 · see citing works
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty
Hertel, T. W., & Rosch, S. (2010) · Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy · doi:10.1093/aepp/ppq016 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO 2 fertilization in China
Erda, L., Wei, X., Ju, H., Xu, Y., Li, Y., Li-ping, B., & Liyong, X. (2005) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1743 · Cited by 282 · see citing works
Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Ort, D. R., & Long, S. P. (2008) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02500.x · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia
Matthews, R., Kropff, M. J., Bachelet, D., et al. (1995) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-85193-3_29 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?1
Hertel, T. W. (2011) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/ajae/aaq189 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Self-citationHow Did the World's Poorest Fare in the 1990s?
Chen, S., & Ravallion, M. D. (2000) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-2409 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Alcamo, J., Dronin, N. M., Endejan, M., Golubev, G. N., & Kirilenko, A. (2007) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.006 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda
Hertel, T. W., & Winters, L. A. (2006) · World Bank Publications · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-6314-0 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Self-citationTowards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields
Tebaldi, C., & Lobell, D. B. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl033423 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Self-citationKeeney, R., & Hertel, T. W. (2005) · GTAP technical paper series · doi:10.21642/gtap.tp24 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Self-citationSchlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2006) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.7916/d89s237w · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security
Xiong, W., Lin, E., Ju, H., & Xu, Y. (2007) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9123-5 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty
Hertel, T. W. (2004) · The World Bank Economic Review · doi:10.1093/wber/lhh039 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Self-citationPoverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda
Winters, L. A., & Hertel, T. W. (2005) · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citationAssessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility
Valenzuela, E., Hertel, T. W., Keeney, R., et al. (2007) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00977.x · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Self-citationA GRAPHICAL EXPOSITION OF THE GTAP MODELPreprint
Brockmeier, M., & Brockmeier, M. (2001) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.28706 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Distributional Effects Of WTO Agricultural Reforms In Rich And Poor Countries
Hertel, T. W., Keeney, R., Ivanic, M., et al. (2006) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4060 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Dimaranan, B. V. (Ed.) (2006) Global Trade Assistance and Protection: The GTAP 6 Data Base West Lafayette, Indiana, Centre for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
- Hertel, T. W. (Ed.) (1997) Global trade analysis: models and applications, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge Univ Press.
- Lobell, D. B. & Field, C. B. (2007) Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2, 004000 (7pp).
- Tebaldi, C. & Lobell, D. B. (2008) Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08705, doi:10.1029/2008GL033423. · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security
Wheeler, T., & von Braun, J. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1239402 · Cited by 3,487 · see citing works
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2470 · Cited by 2,491 · see citing works
Self-citationThe effect of environmental change on human migration
Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001 · Cited by 1,279 · see citing works
Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., & Reinhardt, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2 · Cited by 1,037 · see citing works
Anand, S. S., Hawkes, C., de Souza, R. J., Mente, A., Dehghan, M., Nugent, R., Zulyniak, M. A., Weis, T., Bernstein, A. M., Krauss, R. M., et al. (2015) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2015.07.050 · Cited by 507 · see citing works
Social vulnerability to climate change: A review of concepts and evidence
Otto, I. M., Reckien, D., Reyer, C. P. O., Marcus, R., Le Masson, V., Jones, L., Norton, A., & Serdeczny, O. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1105-9 · Cited by 400 · see citing works
Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics
Randell, H., & Gray, C. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1817480116 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Climate change, the economy, and conflict
Koubi, V. (2017) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0074-x · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security
Godfray, H. C. J., & Robinson, S. (2015) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grv006 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., & Lobell, D. B.
- Affiliations
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lobell, David B.
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-10
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 577-585
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1997952470
- Cited by
- 487
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 48 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 23 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 37 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 24.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- ageconsearch.umn.edu
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA)
- Funders
- Rockefeller Foundation
- World Bank Group
- European Commission
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on agriculture, crop yield changes, poverty, food prices, commodity prices, economic welfare, developing countries, household income distribution, climate shocks, food security
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
