Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
Abstract
Releases of greenhouse gases (GHG) from indirect land-use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This article analyzes these releases for maize ethanol produced in the United States. Factoring market-mediated responses and by-product use into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72% from the land used for the ethanol feedstock. Consequently, the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is 800 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule (MJ); 27 grams per MJ per year, over 30 years of ethanol production, or roughly a quarter of the only other published estimate of releases attributable to changes in indirect land use. Nonetheless, 800 grams are enough to cancel out the benefits that corn ethanol has on global warming, thereby limiting its potential contribution in the context of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
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The estimate of LUC GHG emissions for corn ethanol has decreased substantially compared to earlier studies.
“However, the estimate of LUC GHG emissions for this fuel has decreased substantially compared to earlier studies [1,2,11,12,36].”
From Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
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The representation of landscapes in global scale assessments of environmental change
Verburg, P. H., van Asselen, S., van der Zanden, E. H., & Stehfest, E. (2012) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9745-0 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Norström, A. V., Dannenberg, A., McCarney, G., Milkoreit, M., Diekert, F., Engström, G., Fishman, R., Gars, J., Kyriakopoulou, E., Manoussi, V., et al. (2014) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-06602-190308 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Pingoud, K., Ekholm, T., & Savolainen, I. (2011) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9331-9 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates
Taheripour, F., & Tyner, W. (2013) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app3010014 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
On the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Sources
Edenhofer, O., Seyboth, K., Creutzig, F., & Schlömer, S. (2013) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-051012-145344 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Consensus and Contention in the Food-Versus-Fuel Debate
Rosegrant, M. W., & Msangi, S. (2014) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-031813-132233 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
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Dandres, T., Gaudreault, C., Seco, P. T., & Samson, R. (2011) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2011.04.004 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Welfare Impacts of Alternative Biofuel and Energy Policies
Cui, J., Lapan, H. E., Moschini, G., & Cooper, J. (2011) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/ajae/aar053 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Laborde, D., & Valin, H. (2012) · Climate Change Economics · doi:10.1142/s2010007812500170 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Carbon intensity of corn ethanol in the United States: state of the science
Scully, M. J., Norris, G. A., Falconi, T. M. A., & MacIntosh, D. L. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abde08 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
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Biofuels : Markets, Targets And Impacts
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Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework
Hertel, T. W. (2013) · Handbook of computable general equilibrium modeling · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-59568-3.00012-2 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationLand use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastics
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Galik, C. S., & Abt, R. C. (2015) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12273 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Geography Matters: International Trade Patterns and the Indirect Land Use Effects of Biofuels
Villoria, N. B., & Hertel, T. W. (2011) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/ajae/aar025 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Self-citationWeng, Y., Chang, S., Cai, W., & Wang, C. (2018) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.024 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models
Hertel, T. W., West, T. A. P., Börner, J., & Villoria, N. B. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d33 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationA life cycle assessment of biopolymer production from material recovery facility residuals
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Hassan, S. N., Sani, Y. M., Raman, A. A. A., Sulaiman, N. M. N., & Daud, W. M. A. W. (2014) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2014.09.050 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Kling, C. L., Arritt, R. W., Calhoun, G., & Keiser, D. A. (2017) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-033533 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Implications of market-mediated emissions and uncertainty for biofuel policies
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Hertel, T. W., Golub, A. A., Jones, A. D., O'Hare, M., Plevin, R. J., & Kammen, D. M.
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2010-03
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 223-231
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2042467966
- Semantic Scholar
- 1711415b8f00f64c8855c6364d4157fd312a433f
- Cited by
- 554
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 70 · 2012: 49
- FWCI
- 59.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
- Keywords
- indirect land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, biofuels, cropland conversion, CO2 emissions, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, climate policy, energy security
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