Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050
Open accessAbstract
Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops-maize, rice, wheat, and soybean-that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.
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Globally, for many agricultural systems, historical realized rates of improvement of on-farm crop productivity have been estimated to be slower than the targets set for future global food security.
“globally for many agricultural systems the historical realized rates of improvement of on-farm crop productivity have been estimated to be slower than the targets set for future global food security (Fischer et al., 2014;Ray, Mueller, West, & Foley, 2013).”
From Integrating genetic gain and gap analysis to predict improvements in crop productivity (2020) · cites this paper as Ray, Mueller, West, & Foley, 2013
A continuation of current yield trends until 2050 will not suffice to meet the rising global food demand without further growth of cropland areas.
“A continuation of current yield trends until 2050 will not suffice to meet the rising global food demand without further growth of cropland areas [42].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [42]
Yield increases on existing croplands will be an essential component to increased food production, but by themselves will not suffice.
“Yield increases on existing croplands will be an essential component to increased food production, but by themselves will not suffice (Godfray et al., 2010;Hubert, Rosegrant, van Boekel, & Ortiz, 2010;Ray, Mueller, West, & Foley, 2013).”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ray, Mueller, West, & Foley, 2013
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- Authors
- Ray, D. K., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C., & Foley, J. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ray, Deepak K.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-06-19
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e66428
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3686737
- OpenAlex
- W2114891756
- Cited by
- 3,415
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 222 · 2025: 277 · 2024: 313 · 2023: 337 · 2022: 442 · 2021: 397 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 289 · 2018: 230 · 2017: 184 · 2016: 151 · 2015: 129 · 2014: 87 · 2013: 20
- FWCI
- 137.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- PepsiCo
- General Mills
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
- Keywords
- crop yield trends, global crop production, food demand projections, maize, rice, wheat, soybean, food security, biofuels, land use change, agricultural statistics
- MeSH terms
- Crop Production, Agriculture, Food Supply, Humans, Population Growth, Crops, Agricultural
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