Electrocardiographic Biomarker Based on Machine Learning for Detecting Overt Hyperthyroidism

Abstract

Aims: Although overt hyperthyroidism adversely affects a patient’s prognosis, thyroid function tests (TFTs) are not routinely conducted. Furthermore, vague symptoms of hyperthyroidism often lead to hyperthyroidism being overlooked. An electrocardiogram (ECG) is a commonly used screening test, and the association between thyroid function and ECG is well known. However, it is difficult for clinicians to detect hyperthyroidism through subtle ECG changes. For early detection of hyperthyroidism, we aimed to develop and validate an electrocardiographic biomarker based on a deep learning model (DLM) for detecting hyperthyroidism. Methods and results: This multicentre retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent ECG and TFTs within 24 h. For model development and internal validation, we obtained 174 331 ECGs from 113 194 patients. We extracted 48 648 ECGs from 33 478 patients from another hospital for external validation. Using 500 Hz raw ECG, we developed a DLM with 12-lead, 6-lead (limb leads, precordial leads), and single-lead (lead I) ECGs to detect overt hyperthyroidism. We calculated the model’s performance on the internal and external validation sets using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The AUC of the DLM using a 12-lead ECG was 0.926 (0.913–0.94) for internal validation and 0.883(0.855–0.911) for external validation. The AUC of DLMs using six and a single-lead were in the range of 0.889–0.906 for internal validation and 0.847–0.882 for external validation. Conclusion: We developed a DLM using ECG for non-invasive screening of overt hyperthyroidism. We expect this model to contribute to the early diagnosis of diseases and improve patient prognosis.