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Development of life-expectancy tables for people with type 2 diabetes
Open accessAbstract
AIMS: To develop tables that report the life expectancy associated with levels of major modifiable risk factors for patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A set of tables reporting life-expectancy stratified by age-sex groups for combinations of modifiable risk was constructed based on predictions from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. This model is based on a system of parametric proportional hazards risk equations for estimating mortality and vascular complications of diabetes that have been estimated from 3642 patients from the UKPDS. The tables show substantial potential gains in life expectancy within every age group from modifying major risk factors. The estimated life expectancy of men at age of 55 years with type 2 diabetes, 5 years after diagnosis, varies between 13.2 years for a patient who smokes, has systolic blood pressure of 180 mmHg, a total:HDL cholesterol ratio of 8, and HbA(1c) of 10%, and 21.1 years for a non-smoker with SBP of 120 mmHg, total/HDL ratio of 4, and HbA(1c) of 6%. CONCLUSION: Life expectancy tables provide a potentially useful tool of conveying prognostic information to people with type 2 diabetes and suggest substantial scope for increasing longevity by improving modifiable risk factors.
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“Cardiovascular disease (CVD) accounts for 75% of all related deaths in diabetic patients and on average individuals with T2D have an increased risk of shorter life expectancy.44,45”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [45]
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“By contrast, the UKPDS-OM2 takes a completely transparent approach [6, 26], in which we have fully reported its development, the equations that determine all outcomes and the algorithm used to bring the elements of the model together.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Leal, J., Gray, A. M., & Clarke, P. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Venue
- European Heart Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2008-12-24
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 834-839
- ISSN
- 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
- 1522-9645
- PMC
- PMC2663724
- OpenAlex
- W2107098508
- Cited by
- 128
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 3.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- European Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Diabetes Australia
- Medical Research Council
- National Health and Medical Research Council (512463)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Keywords
- type 2 diabetes, life expectancy, modifiable risk factors, mortality prediction, vascular complications, smoking, systolic blood pressure, TC/HDL-C ratio, HbA1c, prognosis
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Diabetic Angiopathies, Female, United Kingdom, Health Status, Health Surveys, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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