Cited by 141Human Mobility and Location-Based AnalysisViral Infections and Outbreaks ResearchData-Driven Disease Surveillance

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Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data

Open access
Peak, Corey M, Wesolowski, Amy, zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth, Tatem, Andrew J, Wetter, Erik, Lu, Xin, Power, Daniel, Weidman-Grunewald, Elaine, Ramos, Sergio, Moritz, Simon, Buckee, Caroline O, Bengtsson, Linus·2018·International Journal of Epidemiology

Abstract

Background: Travel restrictions were implemented on an unprecedented scale in 2015 in Sierra Leone to contain and eliminate Ebola virus disease. However, the impact of epidemic travel restrictions on mobility itself remains difficult to measure with traditional methods. New 'big data' approaches using mobile phone data can provide, in near real-time, the type of information needed to guide and evaluate control measures. Methods: We analysed anonymous mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) from a leading operator in Sierra Leone between 20 March and 1 July in 2015. We used an anomaly detection algorithm to assess changes in travel during a national 'stay at home' lockdown from 27 to 29 March. To measure the magnitude of these changes and to assess effect modification by region and historical Ebola burden, we performed a time series analysis and a crossover analysis. Results: Routinely collected mobile phone data revealed a dramatic reduction in human mobility during a 3-day lockdown in Sierra Leone. The number of individuals relocating between chiefdoms decreased by 31% within 15 km, by 46% for 15-30 km and by 76% for distances greater than 30 km. This effect was highly heterogeneous in space, with higher impact in regions with higher Ebola incidence. Travel quickly returned to normal patterns after the restrictions were lifted. Conclusions: The effects of travel restrictions on mobility can be large, targeted and measurable in near real-time. With appropriate anonymization protocols, mobile phone data should play a central role in guiding and monitoring interventions for epidemic containment.

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Crossref · 10.1093/ije/dyy095

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Figures

Figure 1 Temporality of Ebola virus disease, interventions, and available mobile phone data. The timespan of available mobile phone data (green) includes: the late stage of the national epidemic curve (bars); Operation Northern Push (blue); and one of the two national lockdowns (red).
Figure 1 Temporality of Ebola virus disease, interventions, and available mobile phone data. The timespan of available mobile phone data (green) includes: the late stage of the national epidemic curve (bars); Operation Northern Push (blue); and one of the two national lockdowns (red).CC BY-NC · PubMed Central
Figure 2 Travel anomalies during the elimination phase of Ebola in Sierra Leone. (A) The daily number of trips between Freetown and Magbema, the largest chiefdom in the northern district of Kambia, reveal significant negative anomalies during the 2015 national lockdown (light grey) and suggest a downward trend during Operation Northern Push (darker grey). (B) The daily number of positive (grey) and negative (black) travel anomalies detected between all chiefdom pairs with an average of at least 10 trips per day.
Figure 2 Travel anomalies during the elimination phase of Ebola in Sierra Leone. (A) The daily number of trips between Freetown and Magbema, the largest chiefdom in the northern district of Kambia, reveal significant negative anomalies during the 2015 national lockdown (light grey) and suggest a downward trend during Operation Northern Push (darker grey). (B) The daily number of positive (grey) and negative (black) travel anomalies detected between all chiefdom pairs with an average of at least 10 trips per day.CC BY-NC · PubMed Central
Figure 3 District heterogeneity in lockdown impact. Reduction in travel by users from each district during the national lockdown ranges from over 70% (dark red) to nearly 30% (light red). Each dot represents 10 cumulative Ebola cases reported in each district between May 2014 and 26 March 2015, before the lockdown. Districts with larger Ebola case counts (italicized numbers adjoining to districts) tended to have larger changes in mobility during the lockdown. Dashed border outlines Magbema chiefdom, discussed in Figure 2a. Thick grey borders outline the districts targeted during Operation Northern Push.
Figure 3 District heterogeneity in lockdown impact. Reduction in travel by users from each district during the national lockdown ranges from over 70% (dark red) to nearly 30% (light red). Each dot represents 10 cumulative Ebola cases reported in each district between May 2014 and 26 March 2015, before the lockdown. Districts with larger Ebola case counts (italicized numbers adjoining to districts) tended to have larger changes in mobility during the lockdown. Dashed border outlines Magbema chiefdom, discussed in Figure 2a. Thick grey borders outline the districts targeted during Operation Northern Push.CC BY-NC · PubMed Central

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Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), 2014, Ebola: Quarantine Can Undermine Efforts to Curb Epidemic
  2. National Ebola Reponse Centre (NERC), 2015, Zero Ebola Campaign 3 Days Stay At Home—Operational Overview
  3. National Ebola Reponse Centre (NERC), 2015, FAQs—National Zero Ebola Campaign
  4. National Ebola Response Centre (NERC), 2015, Surge Operation Order

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Metadata

Authors
Peak, C. M., Wesolowski, A., zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Tatem, A. J., Wetter, E., Lu, X., Power, D., Weidman-Grunewald, E., Ramos, S., Moritz, S., Buckee, C. O., & Bengtsson, L.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Johns Hopkins University (US)
  • Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Flowminder Foundation (SE)
  • Asian Institute of Management (PH)
  • Central South University (CN)
  • Ericsson (Sweden) (SE)
  • Karolinska Institutet (SE)
Corresponding author
Buckee, Caroline O
Venue
International Journal of Epidemiology
Published
2018-06-26
Volume
47
Issue
5
Pages
1562-1570
ISSN
  • 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
  • 1464-3685
OpenAlex
W2811210701
Cited by
141
References
29
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 10
FWCI
25.06
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U54GM088558)
  • National Research Service Award (T32AI007535–16A)
  • Wellcome Trust Sustaining Health (106866/Z/15/Z)
  • Swedish Research Council (D0313701)
  • Burroughs Wellcome Fund
  • Natural Science Foundation of China (71522014)
  • National Institutes of Health
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Transportation › Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
Keywords
Ebola virus disease, travel restrictions, human mobility, mobile phone data, call detail records, epidemic containment, anomaly detection, chiefdoms, spatial heterogeneity, disease surveillance, Sierra Leone
MeSH terms
Humans, Population Dynamics, Retrospective Studies, Sierra Leone, Travel, Incidence, Infection Control, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Cell Phone, Epidemics

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