The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Open accessAbstract
Background: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. Methods: We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. Results: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9–2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5–4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1–26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS). Conclusions: A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.
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During the COVID-19 outbreak, the local government of Wuhan suggested that all its residents stay isolated at home to protect themselves and reduce the spread of the disease.
“During the COVID-19 outbreak, the local government of Wuhan suggested that all its residents stay isolated at home to protect themselves and reduce the spread of the disease (Lau et al., 2020).”
From The Online Strength-Informed Acceptance and Commitment Therapy Among COVID-19-Affected Adolescents. (2022) · cites this paper as Lau et al., 2020
The Introduction says Wuhan residents were subject to home quarantine to contain COVID-19 spread. But it describes an imposed, rigorously enforced lockdown—not a suggestion by the local government—and does not specifically state that the measure was intended to protect residents themselves. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Cites
Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
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“(6) Green line: approximated growth curve for COVID-19 cases under new diagnostic criteria”
Background
Flagged first, then by citations
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Ayouni, I., Maatoug, J., Dhouib, W., Zammit, N., Fredj, S. B., Ghammam, R., & Ghannem, H. (2021) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-021-11111-1 · Cited by 418 · see citing works
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Impact of COVID-19 lockdown policy on homicide, suicide, and motor vehicle deaths in Peru.
Calderon-Anyosa, R. J., & Kaufman, J. S. (2020) · doi:10.1101/2020.07.11.20150193 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
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Using Smartphones and Wearable Devices to Monitor Behavioral Changes During COVID-19
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The Online Strength-Informed Acceptance and Commitment Therapy Among COVID-19-Affected Adolescents.
Duan, W., Kong, Y., Bu, H., Guan, Q., Chen, Z., Luo, Q., & Zhang, J. (2022) · Research on Social Work Practice · doi:10.1177/10497315211067270 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“During the COVID-19 outbreak, the local government of Wuhan suggested that all its residents stay isolated at home to protect themselves and reduce the spread of the disease (Lau et al., 2020).”
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“…megacities in India namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai have experienced the vibrant modifications in terms of the toxic air pollutants concentration including O3 during the lockdown phase (Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) 2020; Sharma et al. 2020; Lau et al. 2020; Bera et al. 2020).”
Background
- Authors
- Lau, H., Khosrawipour, V., Kocbach, P., Mikolajczyk, A., Schubert, J., Bania, J., & Khosrawipour, T.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn (PL)
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland
- Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences (PL)
- Corresponding author
- Khosrawipour, Tanja
- Venue
- Journal of Travel Medicine
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2020-03-17
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 3
- ISSN
- 1195-1982 (ISSN-L)
- 1708-8305
- PMC
- PMC7184469
- OpenAlex
- W3011800583
- Cited by
- 1,294
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 133 · 2022: 242 · 2021: 462 · 2020: 350
- FWCI
- 47.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- Journal of Travel Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- University of California, San Diego
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown, Wuhan, Hubei Province, epidemic growth rate, doubling time, domestic air traffic, international air travel, diagnostic criteria, non-pharmaceutical interventions, epidemic containment
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Aircraft, China, Humans, Pneumonia, Viral, Quarantine, Travel, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics
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