State-Level Effects of Transitional Justice: What Do We Know?

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Of the 15 comparative works, seven were fully or partly qualitative.

“Of these, seven were fully or partly qualitative.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There appears to be a selection bias in much of the transitional justice literature.

“There also appears to be a 'selection bias' in much of the TJ literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Although most studies maintain that transitional justice processes have helped specific countries, others suggest transitional justice has been ineffectual or even harmful.

“Although most studies maintain that TJ processes have helped specific countries, others suggest TJ has been ineffectual or even harmful.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

An emphasis is emerging on more systematic qualitative and quantitative analysis, including new efforts at cross-national data collection.

“Importantly, an emphasis is emerging on more systematic qualitative and quantitative analysis, including new efforts at cross-national data collection.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

The existing empirical transitional justice literature has helped elucidate the analytical challenges to be tackled.

“Like early contributions to other nascent research programmes, the existing empirical TJ literature has helped elucidate the analytical challenges to be tackled.”

May combine two claims.

The existing literature tends to analyse short-term transitional justice outcomes, often using overly narrow criteria for success.

“Finally, the existing literature tends to analyse short-term TJ outcomes, often using overly narrow criteria for success.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The literature on the state-level effects of transitional justice is still young and relatively small.

“The literature on the state-level effects of TJ is still young and relatively small, and we found more relevant studies on some of these outcomes than on others.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Most transitional justice scholarship seems to have assumed rather than problematized the effects of accountability processes.

“Most TJ scholarship seems to have assumed rather than 'problematized' the effects of accountability processes.”

May combine two claims.

Scholars tend to assert the need for transitional justice and list purported strengths and weaknesses of different mechanisms while paying less attention to careful impact analysis.

“More precisely, scholars tend to assert the need for TJ and list the purported strengths and weaknesses of different TJ mechanisms while paying less attention to careful impact analysis.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The best studies reviewed are cautious about their claims, specifying the conditions under which they are likely to apply.

“The best studies we have reviewed are cautious about their claims, specifying the conditions under which they are likely to apply.”

May combine two claims.

Cross-national studies have turned up contradictions and unclear results.

“Similarly, cross-national studies have turned up contradictions and unclear results.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Barahona de Brito et al. find that TJ policies are more likely to advance democratization when linked to wider institutional reforms, which in turn depend on a range of institutional and political conditions.

“Similarly, Barahona de Brito et al. find that TJ policies are more likely to advance democratization when linked to wider institutional reforms, which in turn depend on a range of institutional and political conditions.”

• cites Barahona de Brito et al.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Scholars and practitioners have made strong causal claims for both positive and negative state-level TJ effects, but these have not been substantiated by other studies.

“Scholars and practitioners have made strong causal claims for both positive and negative state-level TJ effects, but these have not been substantiated by other studies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Lie et al. find that only trials appear to have a positive effect on peace, but that military victories may provide a stronger alternative explanation for this effect.

“Lie et al., however, find that only trials appear to have a positive effect on peace, but that military victories may provide a stronger alternative explanation for this effect.”

• cites Lie et al.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Some cases in Sikkink and Walling's trials dataset did not fit the study's stated TJ definition, and the dataset had coding errors and inconsistencies.

“Some cases were included in the data even when they did not seem to fit the study's stated TJ definition, and there were coding errors and inconsistencies.75”

• cites [75]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Kim and Sikkink control for other factors and find that countries that hold trials are less repressive afterwards, even in the context of civil war.

“For instance, Kim and Sikkink control for other factors and find that countries that hold trials are less repressive afterwards, even in the context of civil war.”

• cites Kim and SikkinkNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Snyder and Vinjamuri consider intervening factors such as the strength of democratic forces and spoilers and the level of institutional development.

“Snyder and Vinjamuri, for instance, consider the role of intervening factors, such as the strength of both democratic forces and spoilers and the level of institutional development.”

• cites Snyder and VinjamuriNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Snyder and Vinjamuri find potentially negative effects of trials and truth commissions, while Sikkink and Walling find no harmful effects of trials.

“Snyder and Vinjamuri find potentially negative effects of trials and truth commissions, but Sikkink and Walling find no harmful effects in the case of trials.”

• cites Snyder and VinjamuriNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Sikkink and WallingNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The new cross-national studies are addressing issues of causal analysis and scope conditions, but their overall findings are still inconsistent.

“Yet, while the new cross-national studies are addressing issues of causal analysis and scope conditions, their overall findings are still inconsistent.”

May combine two claims.

The review found only 10 cross-national studies focusing specifically on trials and/or truth commissions, plus two more covering broader postconflict policies.

“We found only 10 cross-national studies focusing specifically on trials and/or truth commissions (and two more that covered broader postconflict policies).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Olsen et al. find that TJ has positive effects for democracy and human rights in some of their analyses.

“Olsen et al. also find that TJ has positive effects for democracy and human rights in some of their analyses.”

• cites Olsen et al.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The field of survey-based TJ studies in postconflict settings is still in its infancy.

“The field of survey-based TJ studies in postconflict settings is still in its infancy, but initial results are intriguing, including those of surveys conducted in northern Uganda, Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

One recent trend in the literature on postconflict peacebuilding focuses on disentangling the contradictions between a peacebuilding enterprise's different goals.

“One recent trend in the literature on postconflict peacebuilding focuses on disentangling the contradictions between a peacebuilding enterprise's different goals.86”

• cites [86]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

An increasing number of researchers is working on TJ, there have been several recent large data collection efforts, and the first analyses of these new datasets are beginning to appear.

“An increasing number of researchers is working on this issue, there have been several recent large data collection efforts and we are beginning to see the first analyses of these new datasets.”

May combine two claims.

Surveys conducted in northern Uganda, Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia demonstrate widespread support for TJ, although in at least one important case respondents favour amnesty over prosecutions.

“These studies demonstrate widespread support for TJ, although in at least one important case, respondents favour amnesty over prosecutions.81”

• cites [80]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [81]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

Prior levels of conflict and cooperation, along with EU actions, were statistically significant and had stronger effects on societal peace than ICTY actions.

“Instead, prior levels of conflict and cooperation, along with EU actions, were statistically significant and had stronger effects.”

• cites [48]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Akhavan's study's major weaknesses are that the evidence is anecdotal and that the author does not sufficiently consider other factors or explanations.

“Its major weaknesses are that the evidence is anecdotal and that the author does not sufficiently consider other factors or explanations.”

• cites [47]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The ICTY and ICTR have done a poor job of boosting local support for accountability and justice, and Kosovo's mixed trials have garnered little local legitimacy.

“Both the ICTY and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda have done a poor job of boosting local support for accountability and justice, and Kosovo's mixed trials have garnered little local legitimacy.”

• cites [49]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

These findings may reveal a great deal about the managerial talents of truth commission administrators, but they tell us little about the deeper social, political or institutional changes that such processes seek to achieve.

“These findings may reveal a great deal about the managerial talents of truth commission administrators, but they tell us little about the deeper social, political or institutional changes that such processes seek to achieve.”

May combine two claims.

International trials help marginalize perpetrators but are less successful in local judicial capacity building and in demonstrating the importance of legal accountability to domestic audiences.

“Although international trials help marginalize perpetrators, they are less successful in local judicial capacity building and in demonstrating the importance of legal accountability to domestic audiences.”

• cites [49]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Stromseth, Wippman and Brooks' study finds mixed, complex and unclear effects of international tribunals and mixed or hybrid trials on the rule of law and domestic justice capacity.

“It finds mixed, complex and unclear effects.”

• cites [49]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The prevailing ambiguity surrounding transitional justice impacts can be significantly reduced through further and more careful research.

“Given the complexity of TJ processes, foolproof policy formulas cannot and never will be developed; still, the prevailing ambiguity surrounding TJ impacts can be significantly reduced through further and more careful research.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In an earlier version, the ordered TJ measure has a significant and positive effect on the rule of law after five years, as measured by the World Bank's Governance Indicators dataset.

“In an earlier version of the study, the authors also found that the ordered TJ measure has a significant and positive effect on the rule of law after five years, as measured by the rule of law indicator in the World Bank's Governance Indicators dataset.”

• cites [65]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Supplementary descriptive statistics show that only trials are associated with higher rule of law scores, and that all other TJ policy choices are negatively associated with the rule of law.

“Their supplementary descriptive statistics, however, show that only trials are associated with higher rule of law scores, and that all other TJ policy choices are negatively associated with the rule of law.”

May combine two claims.

Botha's analysis controls statistically for level of repression and the presence of free and fair national elections, and all her indicators rely on news-based event counts.

“Botha's analysis also controls statistically for level of repression and the presence of free and fair national elections, and all her indicators rely on news-based event counts.”

May combine two claims.

While truth commissions have a positive effect in combination with trials and amnesties, on their own truth commissions (and not amnesties) have a statistically significant and negative effect on human rights conditions.

“Surprisingly, while truth commissions have a positive effect in combination with trials and amnesties, on their own truth commissions (and not amnesties) have a statistically significant and negative effect on human rights conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Snyder and Vinjamuri argue that properly designed and enforced amnesties have done a better job than trials and truth commissions of ending civil wars and encouraging human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

“The authors argue that properly designed and enforced amnesties have done a better job than trials and truth commissions of ending civil wars and encouraging human rights, democracy and the rule of law, as measured by Freedom House and Polity IV indicators.”

• cites [66]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Wiebelhaus-Brahm's statistical analysis finds that, on average, truth commissions had a negative effect on subsequent respect for human rights, but no statistically discernable and significant effect on the level of democracy.

“His statistical analysis examines the impact of truth commissions in 78 countries within a global sample of more than 150 countries from 1981 to 2006, and finds that, on average, they had a negative effect on subsequent respect for human rights, but no statistically discernable and significant effect on the level of democracy.”

• cites [60]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

While some 44 percent of the South African population is at least somewhat reconciled, this result is much lower for the black community.

“Moreover, while some 44 percent of the South African population is at least somewhat reconciled, the study indicates that this result is much lower for the black community.”

• cites [52]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Wiebelhaus-Brahm finds little positive or negative impact on democratization otherwise.

“Otherwise, he finds little positive or negative impact on democratization.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Acceptance of the TRC's version of events is associated with reconciliation at the individual level.

“Gibson also finds that acceptance of the TRC's version of events is associated with reconciliation at the individual level.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Call volume finds no clear link between 'justice for past abuses and the quality and accessibility of justice in the future.'

“Interestingly, the study finds no clear link between 'justice for past abuses and the quality and accessibility of justice in the future.'”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Racial identity is a significant factor in shaping individual attitudes toward the rule of law in South Africa, and suspicion of the law amongst blacks drives the national average.

“Racial identity is found to be a significant factor in shaping individual attitudes, and suspicion of the law amongst blacks drives the national average.”

• cites [52]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Kenney and Spears find a positive TJ effect using multivariate regression to assess the effect of truth commissions on democratization in 16 postauthoritarian Latin American countries from 1979 to 2003.

“Similarly, findings of a positive TJ effect appear in an unpublished paper by Charles Kenney and Dean Spears, who use multivariate regression to assess the effect of truth commissions on democratization in 16 postauthoritarian Latin American countries from 1979 to 2003.”

• cites [57]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

El Salvador is now more respectful of human rights, due in large part to police and military reforms.

“Wiebelhaus-Brahm finds, however, that El Salvador is now more respectful of human rights, which is due in large part to police and military reforms.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Botha uses collective protests as a proxy for regime legitimacy, arguing that more protests should signal lower legitimacy.

“Whereas most other research measures regime legitimacy through individual attitudes, Botha uses collective protests as a proxy, arguing that more protests should signal lower legitimacy.”

May combine two claims.

Similar conditions apply in South Africa, suggesting that popular attitudes towards human rights including the rights of suspected criminals are not tightly linked to reductions in politically inspired abuses.

“Similar conditions, moreover, apply in South Africa, suggesting that popular attitudes towards human rightsincluding the rights of suspected criminals -are not tightly linked to reductions in politically inspired abuses.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The TRC may have had a positive influence through its exposure of abuses by all sides.

“The TRC, Gibson concludes, may have had a positive influence through its exposure of abuses by all sides.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

TJ is more likely to succeed in countries that are already well on their way to democracy.

“In other words, Barahona de Brito et al. find that TJ is more likely to succeed in countries that are already well on their way to democracy.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Wiebelhaus-Brahm's findings are preliminary because of data limitations and the difficulty of isolating the effects of truth commissions from other factors.

“This study is a good example of using mixed methods to investigate TJ impacts, but its findings are preliminary, as Wiebelhaus-Brahm himself warns, because of data limitations and the difficulty of isolating the effects of truth commissions from other factors.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In Rwanda, Timor Leste and Bosnia, popular perceptions of current justice systems were negatively affected by the way past abuses were addressed.

“Still, volume contributors do find some grounds for TJ policy relevance, arguing that in Rwanda, Timor Leste and Bosnia popular perceptions of current justice systems were negatively affected by the way past abuses were addressed.”

May combine two claims.

Botha analyses the effects of truth commissions on regime legitimacy in all 56 nascent democracies in Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America between 1984 and 1995, and its findings are generally positive.

“An unpublished PhD dissertation by Belinda Botha analyses the effects of truth commissions on regime legitimacy in all 56 nascent democracies in Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America between 1984 and 1995, and its findings are generally positive.”

• cites [58]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The finding that reconciliation is lowest among Africans, but that Africans also exhibit the most confidence in the TRC and the highest acceptance of its truth, suggests that the TRC may have in fact impeded, rather than helped, reconciliation.

“Finally, the finding that reconciliation is lowest among Africans, but that the latter also exhibit the most confidence in the TRC and the highest acceptance of its truth, suggests that the TRC may have in fact impeded, rather than helped, reconciliation.”

• cites [54]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Successful reconciliation is a protracted and complex process that includes truth telling, identity redefinition and 'partial justice short of revenge.'

“Successful reconciliation, the authors find, is a protracted and complex process that includes truth telling, identity redefinition and 'partial justice short of revenge.'”

• cites [55]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Call volume's research design is not geared towards uncovering specific, causal TJ impacts.

“The approach highlights the value of considering TJ in the context of wider peacebuilding policies, but this also means that its analysis of TJ impacts is limited and that its research design is not geared towards uncovering specific, causal TJ impacts.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Sikkink and Walling discern no evidence that trials extend or exacerbate conflict.

“Sikkink and Walling also discern no evidence that trials extend or exacerbate conflict.”

• cites [50]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Olsen et al.'s research design does not advance our understanding of scope conditions.

“Its research design, however, does not advance our understanding of scope conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The Kenney and Spears study's regionally homogenous sample reinforces the notion that Latin America has specific qualities that encourage successful TJ.

“The study's regionally homogenous sample reinforces the notion that Latin America has specific qualities that encourage successful TJ”

May combine two claims.

'Forward-looking' institutional reforms are more consistently linked to democratization, although the study finds no indication that reform cannot proceed without purges.

“'Forward-looking' institutional reforms, by contrast -such as wresting control of the police, military and judiciary from authoritarian forces and establishing their accountability to democratic institutions -are more consistently linked to democratization, although the study finds no indication that reform cannot proceed without purges.”

• cites [62]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The TRC may have reflected, rather than caused, social reconciliation.

“Thus, the TRC may have reflected, rather than caused, social reconciliation.”

• cites [53]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Most attitudes co-vary.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In Spain, Hungary and Uruguay, democracy developed well without TJ, while in Portugal, El Salvador and Guatemala TJ made little or no contribution.

“In Spain, Hungary and Uruguay, for example, democracy developed well without TJ, while in Portugal, El Salvador and Guatemala TJ made little or no contribution.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

It is unclear whether truth commissions are causally related to democracy.

“as the authors note, it is unclear whether truth commissions are causally related to democracy.”

May combine two claims.

In El Salvador, the UN-sponsored truth commission was largely ignored, and individuals named in the report faced few repercussions.

“Thus, in El Salvador, the UN-sponsored truth commission was largely ignored, and individuals named in the report faced few repercussions.”

May combine two claims.

Gibson finds that South Africans are suspicious of the rule of law, but that their sentiments resemble those of many European publics.

“In general, Gibson finds that South Africans are suspicious of the rule of law, but that their sentiments resemble those of many European publics.”

• cites [52]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Support for the rule of law is associated with conciliatory racial attitudes and support for a weaker form of majoritarianism.

“Support for the rule of law, in turn, is associated with conciliatory racial attitudes and support for a weaker form of majoritarianism.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Barahona de Brito et al. find no clear link between 'backward-looking' truth and justice efforts and the functioning of democracy.

“It finds no clear link between 'backward-looking' truth and justice efforts and the functioning of democracy.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Extensive truth telling is the critical starting point for successful peace settlements, as the three settlements without truth telling did not last.

“William Long and Peter Brecke's study of 11 civil wars in 10 countries that experienced 'reconciliation events' finds that extensive truth telling is the critical starting point for successful peace settlements, as the three settlements without truth telling did not last.”

May combine two claims.

Wiebelhaus-Brahm's findings are not definitive because his analysis does not consider variation in the implementation of truth commissions and his research design does not probe scope conditions.

“Wiebelhaus-Brahm's findings are not definitive, however, as his analysis does not consider variation in the implementation of truth commissions and his research design does not probe scope conditions.”

May combine two claims.

Olsen et al. find positive effects of TJ in their analyses of the ordered TJ scale and combinations of mechanisms involving trials and amnesties, but only for some of their democracy and human rights measures.

“They find positive effects of TJ in their analyses of the ordered TJ scale and combinations of mechanisms involving trials and amnesties, but only for some of their democracy and human rights measures.”

May combine two claims.

There may be little popular support for human rights, broadly conceived, and a truth commission's discernable effects are limited to politically motivated abuses.

“This suggests that there may be little popular support for human rights, broadly conceived, and that a truth commission's discernable effects are limited to politically motivated abuses.”

• cites [61]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In Argentina, South Africa and the Czech Republic, TJ seems to have contributed to democracy, though the causal links are complex.

“In still other instances, including Argentina, South Africa and the Czech Republic, TJ seems to have contributed to democracy, though the causal links are complex.”

May combine two claims.

A general culture of human rights is hard to inculcate, and postconflict truth commissions may not be either sufficient or necessary to create such a culture.

“A general culture of human rights, in other words, is hard to inculcate, and postconflict truth commissions may not be either sufficient or necessary to create such a culture.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

A truth commission's presence is associated with lower levels of protests and this link endures over time.

“She finds that a truth commission's presence is associated with lower levels of protests and that this link endures over time.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Trials have contributed to ending abuses only when peace spoilers are weak and the country's justice infrastructure is well established.

“Trials have contributed to ending abuses only when peace spoilers are weak and the country's justice infrastructure is well established, while truth commissions have been irrelevant or harmful unless employed in countries well on the road to democracy.”

May combine two claims.

El Salvador has experienced a massive postconflict crime wave, which has produced broad public support for draconian 'law and order' measures.

“The country has also experienced a massive postconflict crime wave, which has produced broad public support for draconian 'law and order' measures.”

May combine two claims.

Olsen et al. find some statistically significant and positive effects 10 years after transitions began but are unable to draw strong conclusions.

“Controlling for national wealth, world region, timing and prior level of democracy, the authors find some statistically significant and positive effects 10 years after the transitions began but are unable to draw strong conclusions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Gibson's cross-sectional data cannot conclusively support causal claims because it does not trace changes over time.

“Still, Gibson readily acknowledges that his cross-sectional data cannot conclusively support causal claims because it does not trace changes over time.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The study does not observe real differences in individuals' exposure to the TRC that convincingly explain their acceptance of its truth.

“First, the study does not observe real differences in individuals' exposure to the TRC that convincingly explain their acceptance of its truth.”

May combine two claims.

Sikkink and Walling find little evidence that trials lead to more human rights violations; instead, trials are associated with equal or better human rights conditions.

“Finally, the authors find little evidence that trials lead to more human rights violations; instead, trials are associated with equal or better human rights conditions.”

• cites [50]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Snyder and Vinjamuri suggest that TJ has only worked under specific scope conditions.

“Snyder and Vinjamuri suggest that TJ has only worked under specific scope conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Deficiencies in postconflict justice systems are caused by factors unrelated to TJ, including institutional choices, political decisions and style of war termination.

“Instead, it argues that deficiencies in postconflict justice systems are caused by factors unrelated to TJ, including institutional choices, political decisions and style of war termination.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Truth commissions have been irrelevant or harmful unless employed in countries well on the road to democracy.

“Trials have contributed to ending abuses only when peace spoilers are weak and the country's justice infrastructure is well established, while truth commissions have been irrelevant or harmful unless employed in countries well on the road to democracy.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

There are few broadly accepted international indicators for state legitimacy or state capacity over time.

“Further, there are few broadly accepted international indicators for state legitimacy or state capacity over time.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

When any dataset is closely scrutinized by critics, shortcomings soon appear.

“Finally, when any dataset is closely scrutinized by critics, shortcomings soon appear.”

May combine two claims.

Lie et al. find that hard-nosed political and military factors matter most to peace duration, as one-sided victories are the strongest predictor of peace duration.

“They find that hard-nosed political and military factors matter most to peace duration, as one-sided victories are the strongest predictor of peace duration.”

• cites [67]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Even the most careful dataset will be open to criticism.

“As a result, even the most careful dataset will be open to criticism.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Cross-national studies do not automatically advance scope conditions; they need to be specifically designed to do so through sampling or investigation of interaction effects.

“Cross-national studies do not automatically advance scope conditions but rather need to be specifically designed to do so through sampling or investigation of interaction effects.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Snyder and Vinjamuri's work provides important scope conditions for more general claims about TJ's state-level impacts.

“As a result, their work provides important scope conditions for the more general claims about TJ's state-level impacts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Snyder and Vinjamuri's methods and controls are not methodologically sophisticated, suggesting that their work is exploratory rather than confirmatory.

“Their methods and controls are not methodologically sophisticated, suggesting that their work is exploratory rather than confirmatory.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Complex social phenomena are hard to capture with quantitative indicators, and concepts such as state respect for human rights, social reconciliation, public culture or state legitimacy are notoriously difficult, and perhaps even impossible, to quantify.

“Complex social phenomena are hard to capture with quantitative indicators, and concepts such as state respect for human rights, social reconciliation, public culture or state legitimacy are notoriously difficult, and perhaps even impossible, to quantify.”

May combine two claims.

When Lie et al. restrict their analysis to a subset of 87 democracies, they find that reparations and truth commissions are positively associated with peace duration, and that these results are not sensitive to conflict termination patterns.

“When Lie et al. restrict their analysis to a subset of 87 democracies, they find that reparations and truth commissions are positively associated with peace duration, and that these results are not sensitive to conflict termination patterns.”

May combine two claims.

TJ does not have a clear impact across postconflict countries, but seems more successful in reasonably democratic countries.

“TJ does not have a clear impact across postconflict countries, but seems more successful in reasonably democratic countries.”

May combine two claims.

The Lie et al. finding suggests that both TJ advocates and sceptics may be right, but their arguments apply to different political conditions.

“This finding in particular is fascinating, as it suggests that both TJ advocates and sceptics may be right, but that their arguments apply to different political conditions.”

May combine two claims.

One systematic study of state violence in Guatemala found that press accounts of repression varied dramatically by source, and that newspaper coverage was inversely related to repression.

“One systematic study of state violence in Guatemala, for instance, found that press accounts of repression varied dramatically by source, and that newspaper coverage was inversely related to repression.”

• cites [73]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Snyder and Vinjamuri do not examine the effects of amnesties as critically as those of other TJ processes.

“The authors also do not examine the effects of amnesties as critically as those of other TJ processes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Another study found that the volume of human rights press reporting was influenced by a host of factors other than actual abuse, and that rich countries received more attention than poor ones.

“Another study found that the volume of human rights press reporting was influenced by a host of factors other than actual abuse, and that rich countries received more attention than poor ones.”

• cites [74]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Well-designed comparisons would also look at cases with similar starting conditions that did not experience TJ, since controlled comparisons can help determine whether an observed impact is due to TJ or other factors.

“Well-designed comparisons, by contrast, would also look at cases with similar starting conditions that did not experience TJ, since controlled comparisons of this sort can help determine whether an observed impact is due to TJ or, perhaps, to other factors.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Some of Snyder and Vinjamuri's own case studies are cursory and do not convincingly trace impacts from individual TJ mechanisms.

“Still, some of their own case studies are cursory and do not convincingly trace impacts from individual TJ mechanisms.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

We do not know whether the exclusion of other cases has biased the results.

“We thus do not know whether the exclusion of other cases has biased the results.”

May combine two claims.

TJ overall does not have positive effects on peace duration, but one-sided military victories do.

“First, it finds that TJ overall does not have positive effects on peace duration, but that one-sided military victories do.”

May combine two claims.

PTS and CIRI are coded from Amnesty International and US Department of State reports, both of which have their own biases.

“Second, they are coded from Amnesty International and US Department of State reports, both of which have their own biases.”

May combine two claims.

Neither the Barahona de Brito et al. nor the Call volume finds robust, cross-case TJ effects.

“Interestingly, neither volume finds robust, cross-case TJ effects, underlining our concerns with the generalizability of TJ efforts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Middle-range theories, which focus on nuanced scope conditions and causal pathways, tend to be more useful to policy makers because they provide contingent and specific generalizations.

“So-called middle-range theories, which focus on nuanced scope conditions and causal pathways, tend to be more useful to policy makers because they provide contingent and specific generalizations.88”

• cites [88]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Until recently, most TJ case studies were not embedded in well-designed comparative studies, which limited their policy utility.

“The broader point, however, is that, until recently, most TJ case studies were not embedded in well-designed comparative studies, which limited their policy utility.”

May combine two claims.

None of the TJ mechanisms Lie et al. test is statistically significant, although most are positively associated with peace.

“None of the TJ mechanisms they test is statistically significant, although most are positively associated with peace.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Truth commissions often provide political cover for amnesties, masking the real facilitators of peace.

“Truth commissions, moreover, often provide political cover for amnesties, masking the real facilitators of peace.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

If TJ is like other major components of peacebuilding, TJ efforts should be expected to interact in complex and often unpredictable ways with other statebuilding efforts.

“If TJ is anything like the other major components of peacebuilding -and there is no reason to believe that it is not -we should expect TJ efforts to interact in complex and often unpredictable ways with other statebuilding efforts.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: TJ is like other major components of peacebuilding.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Carefully selected comparisons will reduce the risk of specious conclusions.

“Although no study can possibly control for every potential variable, carefully selected comparisons will reduce the risk of specious conclusions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Surveys measure perceptions of institutional performance rather than performance itself.

“Surveys measure perceptions of institutional performance rather than performance itself.”

• cites [82]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The cross-sectional survey of 3,727 individuals was nationally representative and oversampled minorities for statistically meaningful results.

“The cross-sectional survey of 3,727 individuals was nationally representative and oversampled minorities for statistically meaningful results.”

• cites GibsonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Over-time data on the same people or same general population facilitates causal arguments.

“Yet, it is precisely this kind of data that facilitates causal arguments.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There are grounds to suspect that TJ is best suited to states with relatively strong institutions and a certain minimum level of democracy.

“Although there are grounds to suspect that TJ is best suited to states with relatively strong institutions and a certain minimum level of democracy, these hypotheses, along with many others, must be systematically tested and retested.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Some groups have more leverage than others, and well-organized, funded or armed groups can derail peace deals and TJ efforts despite favourable public opinion.

“Some groups have more leverage than others, and well-organized, funded or armed groups can derail peace deals and TJ efforts despite favourable public opinion.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

If warlords, political leaders or other key figures are virulently opposed to TJ, it may not matter if the broader public is in favour of it.

“If warlords, political leaders or other key figures are virulently opposed to TJ, it may not matter if the broader public is in favour of it.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Perceptions are not always accurate or relevant.

“Perceptions are not always accurate or relevant.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Now that the justice cascade has provided more time and more cases for study, a critical research mass is beginning to emerge.

“Now that the justice cascade has provided more time and more cases for study, a critical research mass is beginning to emerge.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Most of the methodological issues raised in the article are beginning to be addressed in new research, which seems to indicate that the social science of TJ is maturing.

“Most of the methodological issues we raise here are beginning to be addressed in new research, which seems to indicate that the social science of TJ is maturing.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Attitudes may change quickly, and support for or discomfort with TJ at specific points in time may not provide conclusive evidence of success or failure.

“Attitudes may change quickly, and support for or discomfort with TJ at specific points in time may not provide conclusive evidence of success or failure.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Some respondents are likely to give answers that they think interviewers or powerful local figures want to hear, rather than their own opinions.

“Some respondents, moreover, are likely to give answers that they think interviewers or powerful local figures want to hear, rather than their own opinions.”

• cites [82]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Different regions, social sectors and groups are likely to have different views on TJ, and aggregate national surveys will miss this information if they are not designed to capture differences through stratification and oversampling.

“Further, different regions, social sectors and groups are likely to have different views on TJ, and aggregate national surveys will miss this information if they are not designed to capture differences through stratification and oversampling.”

May combine two claims.

Surveys provide snapshots in time, making it difficult to draw broad conclusions about dynamic events.

“Surveys, moreover, provide snapshots in time, making it difficult to draw broad conclusions about dynamic events.85”

• cites [85]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.