Supernova forecast with strong lensing
Open accessAbstract
In the coming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope era, we will observe |$\mathcal {O}(100)$| of lensed supernovae (SNe). In this paper, we investigate the possibility for predicting time and sky position of an SN using strong lensing. We find that it will be possible to predict the time and position of the fourth image of SNe which produce four images by strong lensing, with combined information from the three previous images. It is useful to perform multimessenger observations of the very early phase of SN explosions including the shock breakout.
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Time delays between multiple images of strongly lensed core-collapse supernovae can be used to observe the shock breakout phase of their light curves.
“Time delays between the multiple images of strongly lensed core-collapse SNe can be used to observe the elusive shock breakout phase of the light curve”
From LSST: From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products (2019) · cites this paper as Suwa 2018
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Cites
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“After more than 50 years since the original idea by Refsdal (1964), there have been three observations of strongly lensed SNe.”
BackgroundAn extremely luminous X-ray outburst at the birth of a supernova
Soderberg, A. M., Berger, E., Page, K. L., Schady, P., Parrent, J., Pooley, D. A., Wang, X.-Y., Ofek, E. O., Cucchiara, A., Rau, A. R. P., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06997 · Cited by 509 · see citing works
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“In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of predicting the emergence of strongly lensed supernovae, based on mock data given by Oguri & Marshall (2010).”
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BackgroundThe Mass Distribution of SDSS J1004$+$4112 Revisited
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“By using the same mock data as Figure 2, we attempt to predict the time delay and position of the fourth image from information of the previous three images with glafic (Oguri 2010), which is a public software package for analyzing gravitational lensing (see Appendix A).”
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“This was the first ever lensed SN with resolved multiple images (Kelly et al. 2015).”
BackgroundiPTF16geu: A multiply imaged, gravitationally lensed type Ia supernova
Goobar, A., Amanullah, R., Kulkarni, S. R., Nugent, P. E., Johansson, J., Steidel, C., Law, D. R., Mörtsell, E., Quimby, R., Blagorodnova, N., et al. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal2729 · Cited by 245 · cited 1× · see citing works
“At first, multiple images were not resolved by PTF, but follow-up observations by Hubble Space Telescope (HST) resolved multiple images, so that this is the first lensed Type Ia SN with resolved multiple images (Goobar et al. 2017).”
BackgroundSupernova Shock Breakout from a Red Supergiant
Schawinski, K., Justham, S., Wolf, C., Podsiadlowski, P., Sullivan, M., Steenbrugge, K. C., Bell, T., Röser, H.-J., Walker, E. S., Astier, P., et al. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1160456 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
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“Followup analysis suggested that two more images were possible, in addition to the already observed four images (e.g. Oguri 2015; Treu et al. 2016).”
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“This was the first ever lensed SN with resolved multiple images (Kelly et al. 2015).”
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“When a shock that forms inside the star pierces the stellar surface, so called shock breakout (SBO) takes place, which makes a bright flush in X-ray/ultraviolet bands (see Waxman & Katz 2016, for a recent review).”
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BackgroundSHOCK BREAKOUT AND EARLY LIGHT CURVES OF TYPE II-P SUPERNOVAE OBSERVED WITH KEPLER
Garnavich, P., Tucker, B. E., Rest, A., Shaya, E. J., Olling, R. P., Kasen, D., & Villar, V. A. (2016) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/0004-637x/820/1/23 · Cited by 100 · cited 1× · see citing works
“There have been three (including candidate) observations of SBO so far (SN2008D, Soderberg et al. 2008; SNLS-04D2dc, Schawinski et al. 2008; KSN 2011d, Garnavich et al. 2016).”
BackgroundRAPIDLY RISING TRANSIENTS FROM THE SUBARU HYPER SUPRIME-CAM TRANSIENT SURVEY*
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“If the SBO takes place in the dense wind, the timescale would become longer (Tanaka et al. 2016).”
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Goobar, A., Amanullah, R., Kulkarni, Sr., Nugent, P., Johansson, J., Steidel, C., Law, D. R., Mörtsell, E., Quimby, R., Blagorodnova, N., et al. (2017) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Microlensing of Lensed Supernovae
Dobler, G., & Keeton, C. R. (2006) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1086/508769 · Cited by 78 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The microlensing effects would also introduce some error (Dobler & Keeton 2006), which is not taken into account in this study.”
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EXTRAORDINARY MAGNIFICATION OF THE ORDINARY TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA PS1-10afx
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“This event was not detected as resolved multiple images, but it was magnified by a factor of 30 because of strong lensing (Quimby et al. 2013, 2014).”
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Förster, F., Maureira, J. C., Martín, J. S., Hamuy, M., Martínez-Palomera, J., Huijse, P., Cabrera-Vives, G., Galbany, L., de Jaeger, T., González-Gaitán, S., et al. (2016) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/0004-637x/832/2/155 · Cited by 58 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…other survey programs, such as the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF, Law et al. 2009), Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS1, Kaiser et al. 2010), the High Cadence Transient Survey (HITS, Förster et al. 2016), the Kiso Supernova Survey (KISS, Morokuma et al. 2014), etc.”
BackgroundGravitational Lensing Magnification and Time Delay Statistics for Distant Supernovae
Oguri, M., Suto, Y., & Turner, E. L. (2003) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1086/345431 · Cited by 49 · cited 1× · see citing works
“A similar study was done in Oguri et al. (2003), but it was more interested in cosmological applications.”
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Oguri, M. (2015) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters · doi:10.1093/mnrasl/slv025 · Cited by 45 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Followup analysis suggested that two more images were possible, in addition to the already observed four images (e.g. Oguri 2015; Treu et al. 2016).”
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Morokuma, T., Tominaga, N., Tanaka, M., Mori, K., Matsumoto, E., Kikuchi, Y., Shibata, T., Sako, S., Aoki, T., Doi, M., et al. (2014) · Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan · doi:10.1093/pasj/psu105 · Cited by 42 · cited 1× · see citing works
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BackgroundGRAVITATIONAL LENSING MAGNIFICATION AND TIME DELAY STATISTICS FOR DISTANT SUPERNOVAEPreprint
Oguri, M., Suto, Y., & Turner, E. L. (2002) · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
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Ivezić, Ž., Kahn, S. M., Tyson, J. A., Abel, B., Acosta, E., Allsman, R., Alonso, D., AlSayyad, Y., Anderson, S. F., Andrew, J., et al. (2019) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab042c · Cited by 4,357 · see citing works
Strong gravitational lensing of explosive transients
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Strongly Lensed Transient Sources: A Review
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“Strong lensing gives us the opportunity to predict the precise reappearance time of a SN, such that very early data can be gathered (Suwa 2018; Suyu et al. 2020).”
BackgroundForecast of Major Solar X-Ray Flare Flux Profiles Using Novel Deep Learning Models
Yi, K., Moon, Y., Shin, G., & Lim, D. (2020) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ab701b · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Observing the earliest moments of supernovae using strong gravitational lenses
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“Such a prediction could be possible if the SN was subject to strong gravitational lensing (Suwa 2018).”
BackgroundMultidimensional Radiation Hydrodynamics Simulations of SN 1987A Shock Breakout
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Pérez, A. I. P., Smith, G. P., Nicholl, M., Arendse, N., Ryczanowski, D., & Dhawan, S. (2026) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stag009 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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Multiwavelength Signatures of Supernova Shock Breakout from Red Supergiants in Two Dimensions
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“A commonly estimated duration of shock breakout is the LTT t ∼ R * / c ( B. Katz et al. 2010; E. Lovegrove et al. 2017; Y. Suwa 2017 ) .”
Influential
- Authors
- Suwa, Y.
- Affiliations
- Kyoto University (JP)
- Corresponding author
- Suwa, Yudai
- ORCID
- Suwa, Yudai
- Venue
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-11-17
- Volume
- 474
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 2612-2616
- ISSN
- 0035-8711 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2966
- OpenAlex
- W2767199900
- Cited by
- 14
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2016: 3
- FWCI
- 0.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- arxiv.org
- Locations
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H02864, 16K17665)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Nuclear and High Energy Physics › Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
- Keywords
- lensed supernovae, strong gravitational lensing, multiple images, LSST, multi-messenger astronomy, shock breakout
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