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Incidence and Risk of Dementia: The Rotterdam study
Abstract
To assess age-, sex-, and subtype-specific incidence rates of dementia and to calculate the risk of dementia, the authors performed a large, community-based, prospective cohort study on dementia as part of the Rotterdam Study. Participants were recruited among residents of a suburb of Rotterdam, aged 55 years and older. Baseline examinations took place between 1990 and 1993. The average follow-up was 2.1 years. Screening for dementia followed a three-stage protocol. Medical records of subjects who had died or could not be examined in person were evaluated. Of 7,046 subjects who were nondemented at baseline, 162 developed dementia during 15,135 person-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 10.7 per 1,000 person-years. From the youngest to the oldest 5-year age category, the incidence rate increased from 0.6 to 97.2 per 1,000 person-years. Only in men did the increase level off after age 85. Overall, the incidence rate per 1,000 person-years was 7.7 for Alzheimer's disease and 1.5 for vascular dementia. Dementia incidence rates and dementia-free Kaplan-Meier survival tables were used to calculate age- and sex-specific cumulative risks of dementia. Although the incidence rates of men and women up to age 85 were similar, the lifetime risk of dementia for 55-year-old women was twice as high as for men (0.33 vs. 0.16), reflecting both the higher life expectancy of women and the higher dementia risk at very old age.
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“Aging is a common risk factor for developing AD and cancer (6,7).”
From Alzheimer's Disease–Associated Amyloid-β Precursor Protein Prevents Aging Stress–Induced Mitophagy and Fumarate Depletion to Improve Antitumor Immunity (2025) · cites this paper as [6]
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“A typical patient aged 65-70 might normally expect a period incidence of dementia of around 10% over the next 15 years,36 so this odds ratio would be consistent with an absolute risk increase of 2% (1% to 3%) over that period, corresponding to a number needed to harm of 50 (33 to 100).”
From Anticholinergic drugs and risk of dementia: case-control study (2018) · cites this paper as [36]
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Contributions of the Glial Injury Response to the Multifactorial Pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s Disease
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Taha, A. Y., Shen, Q. X., Otoki, Y., Liang, N., Patten, K. T., Valenzuela, A. E., Wallis, C., Rowland, D. J., Chaudhari, A. J., Bein, K. J., et al. (2025) · JCI Insight · doi:10.1172/jci.insight.175917 · Cited by 1
“This is consistent with epidemiological data showing that the incidence of AD is about twice greater in women than in men (56, 70).”
Stites, S. D., Dedhia, M., & Kuz, C. (2026) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2026.2643904 · Cited by 1
“This could be related to the fact that women, as a group, have a higher lifetime risk for dementia than men (Ott et al., 1998).”
The genetics of Alzheimer's disease
Bertram, L. (2008) · Handbook of clinical neurology · doi:10.1016/s0072-9752(07)01221-3 · Cited by 1
Synapses, sea slugs, and psychiatry
David, A. S. (2001) · Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery & Psychiatry · doi:10.1136/jnnp.70.1.1 · Cited by 1
Schindler, E., & Reddy, P. H. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-15256-6.00001-5 · Cited by 1
Konagaya, Y., Watanabe, T., & Konagaya, M. (2009) · Rinsho Shinkeigaku · doi:10.5692/clinicalneurol.49.335 · Cited by 1
Heterogeneity in Alzheimer’s/Vascular Spectrum Dementia
Emrani, S., Lamar, M., Price, C. C., Wasserman, V., Matusz, E. F., Swenson, R. A., Heilman, K. M., & Libon, D. J. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190634230.003.0003 · Cited by 1
Cummings, L. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108587921.004 · Cited by 1
地域在住高齢者における認知症を伴う要介護認定の心理社会的危険因子 AGES プロジェクト3年間のコホート研究
竹田, 徳., 克則, 近., & 寛, 平. (2010) · 日本公衆衛生雑誌 · doi:10.11236/jph.57.12_1054 · Cited by 1
Commentary: Searching for risks for Alzheimer's disease
Brayne, C. (2001) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/30.3.598 · Cited by 1
Shigeta, M., & Homma, A. (2007) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118269640.ch13 · Cited by 1
Villasis, O. B., Tan, D. S., Mendoza, E., & Lao, A. R. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.04.13.463890 · Cited by 1
“It was the groundbreaking Rotterdam study (Ott et al., 1998) that first links type 2 diabetes (T2D) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD).”
BackgroundResultMorbidity and Mortality Changes with Hormone Therapy
Paganini‐Hill, A. (2007) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-012369443-0/50057-0
Survival analysis with uncertain endpoints using an internal validation subsample
Zee, J. (2014) · Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania)
Determinants of cognitive decline in older European men
van Gelder, B. M. (2007) · doi:10.18174/121895
Current status of large-scale epidemiological study-Adult Health Study in Hiroshima and Nagasaki-
Fujiwara, S., 美智子, 山., & Takahashi, I. (2009) · Nosotchu · doi:10.3995/jstroke.31.439
Medicosocial care for persons suffering from Alzheimer's disease and related disorders.
Macijauskienė, J., & Engedal, K. (2005) · PubMed
García, S., Suárez, S. S., & Dávalos, E. G. M. (2006) · Redalyc (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)
Metadata
- Authors
- Ott, A., Breteler, M. M. B., Harskamp, F. V., Stijnen, T., & Hofman, A.
- Affiliations
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Ott, A.
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1998-03-15
- Volume
- 147
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 574-580
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- OpenAlex
- W2039379003
- Cited by
- 455
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 15.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Keywords
- dementia incidence, dementia risk, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, age-specific incidence, sex differences, lifetime risk, older adults, Rotterdam Study
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Dementia, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prospective Studies, Risk, Incidence, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
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