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Incidence and Risk of Dementia: The Rotterdam study
Abstract
To assess age-, sex-, and subtype-specific incidence rates of dementia and to calculate the risk of dementia, the authors performed a large, community-based, prospective cohort study on dementia as part of the Rotterdam Study. Participants were recruited among residents of a suburb of Rotterdam, aged 55 years and older. Baseline examinations took place between 1990 and 1993. The average follow-up was 2.1 years. Screening for dementia followed a three-stage protocol. Medical records of subjects who had died or could not be examined in person were evaluated. Of 7,046 subjects who were nondemented at baseline, 162 developed dementia during 15,135 person-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 10.7 per 1,000 person-years. From the youngest to the oldest 5-year age category, the incidence rate increased from 0.6 to 97.2 per 1,000 person-years. Only in men did the increase level off after age 85. Overall, the incidence rate per 1,000 person-years was 7.7 for Alzheimer's disease and 1.5 for vascular dementia. Dementia incidence rates and dementia-free Kaplan-Meier survival tables were used to calculate age- and sex-specific cumulative risks of dementia. Although the incidence rates of men and women up to age 85 were similar, the lifetime risk of dementia for 55-year-old women was twice as high as for men (0.33 vs. 0.16), reflecting both the higher life expectancy of women and the higher dementia risk at very old age.
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“Aging is a common risk factor for developing AD and cancer (6,7).”
From Alzheimer's Disease–Associated Amyloid-β Precursor Protein Prevents Aging Stress–Induced Mitophagy and Fumarate Depletion to Improve Antitumor Immunity (2025) · cites this paper as [6]
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“A typical patient aged 65-70 might normally expect a period incidence of dementia of around 10% over the next 15 years,36 so this odds ratio would be consistent with an absolute risk increase of 2% (1% to 3%) over that period, corresponding to a number needed to harm of 50 (33 to 100).”
From Anticholinergic drugs and risk of dementia: case-control study (2018) · cites this paper as [36]
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The α2-macroglobulin gene in AD
Koster, M. N., Dermaut, B., Cruts, M., Houwing‐Duistermaat, J. J., Roks, G., Tol, J., Ott, A., Albert Hofman, D., Munteanu, G., Breteler, M. M. B., et al. (2000) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.55.5.678 · Cited by 58
Self-citationvan Uden, I. W. M., van der Holst, H. M., Tuladhar, A. M., van Norden, A. G. W., de Laat, K. F., Rutten‐Jacobs, L. C. A., Norris, D. G., Claassen, J. A. H. R., van Dijk, E. J., Kessels, R. P. C., et al. (2015) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-150573 · Cited by 59
Migraine and Cognitive Decline: A Topical Review
Rist, P. M., & Kurth, T. (2012) · Headache The Journal of Head and Face Pain · doi:10.1111/head.12046 · Cited by 60
Jack, C. R., Therneau, T. M., Lundt, E. S., Wiste, H. J., Mielke, M. M., Knopman, D. S., Graff‐Radford, J., Lowe, V. J., Vemuri, P., Schwarz, C. G., et al. (2022) · Brain Communications · doi:10.1093/braincomms/fcac017 · Cited by 59
Smith, E. E., Aparicio, H. J., Gottesman, R. F., Goyal, M. S., Greenberg, S. M., Schneider, J. A., Sorond, F. A., & Wright, C. B. (2025) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/str.0000000000000494 · Cited by 64
Kim, G., Kim, H., Kim, K. N., Son, J. I., Kim, S. Y., Tamura, T., & Chang, N. (2013) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-2012-121345 · Cited by 56
“Second, although Alzheimer’s dementia is the most common form, VaD is more frequently found in people in Asian countries [42] including Korea [17], compared to the Western populations [18].”
BackgroundApolipoprotein E genotype and progression of Alzheimer's disease: the Rotterdam Study
Slooter, A. J. C., Houwing‐Duistermaat, J. J., van Harskamp, F., Cruts, M., Broeckhoven, C. V., Breteler, M. M. B., Albert Hofman, D., Stijnen, T., & van Duijn, C. M. (1999) · Journal of Neurology · doi:10.1007/s004150050351 · Cited by 56
“Persons who were suspected of dementia were examined by a neurologist, underwent neuropsychological testing, and, if possible, was subjected to brain magnetic resonance imaging [17, 18 ].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationExposure to General Anesthesia and Risk of Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study
Kim, C. T., Myung, W., Lewis, M., Lee, H., Kim, S. E., Lee, K., Lee, C., Choi, J., Kim, H., Carroll, B. J., et al. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-170951 · Cited by 54
“Inagreementwithpreviousstudies,olderagewas themostsignificantriskfactorfordevelopmentof dementia(Table2)[33–35].”
Low vision and the risk of dementia: a nationwide population-based cohort study
Paik, J.-S., Ha, M., Jung, Y. H., Kim, G.-H., Han, K.-D., Kim, H.-S., Lim, D. H., & Na, K.-S. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-66002-z · Cited by 54
Plasma Levels of Antioxidants Are Not Associated with Alzheimer’s Disease or Cognitive Decline
Engelhart, M. J., Ruitenberg, A., Meijer, J., Kiliaan, A., van Swieten, J. C., Hofman, A., Witteman, J. C. M., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2005) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000082884 · Cited by 52
“The Rotterdam Study was performed among inhabitants of a district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, who were aged 55 years and over. The medical ethics committee of the Erasmus University Rotterdam approved the study, and written informed consent was obtained from all 7,983 participants.The baseline, first follow-up and…”
Self-citationAlzheimer’s disease and endothelial dysfunction
Bomboi, G., Castello, L., Cosentino, F., Giubilei, F., Orzi, F., & Volpe, M. (2009) · Neurological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s10072-009-0151-6 · Cited by 54
“For instance, several risk factors for AD, compiled and reported from different epidemiological studies, including The Rotterdam Study [7–9], the Kungsholmen project [10–12], EURODEM [13], and the Honolulu–Asia study [14], are vascular-related, and all are able to impair or reduce cerebral perfusion.”
BackgroundEducation, Occupation, and Dementia: The Bavarian School Sisters Study
Bickel, H., & Kurz, A. (2009) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000227781 · Cited by 58
“In western countries, where life expectancy is long, nearly a third of all elderly individuals develop dementia towards the end of their lives [”
BackgroundAssociations of Serum Cortisol with Cognitive Function and Dementia: The Rotterdam Study
Schrijvers, E. M. C., Direk, N., Koudstaal, P. J., Kirschbaum, C., Albert Hofman, D., Tiemeier, H. W., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2011) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-2011-110224 · Cited by 52
“In addition, the total cohort was continuously monitored for incident dementia through computerized linkage between the study database and digitized medical records from general practitioners and the Regional Institute for Outpatient Mental Health Care [22].”
MethodSelf-citationJaime, J., Salas, M., Ward, A. J., Getsios, D., & Mehnert, A. (2002) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000064929 · Cited by 53
Donepezil for behavioural disorders associated with Lewy bodies: a case series
Lanctôt, K. L., & Herrmann, N. (2000) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1166(200004)15:4 · Cited by 105
Marim, C. M., Silva, V., Taminato, M., & Barbosa, D. A. (2013) · Revista Latino-Americana de Enfermagem · doi:10.1590/s0104-11692013000700033 · Cited by 50
“Sem ITT Fortinsky et al, 2009 -4,24 3,06 46 -5,45 3,91 20 14,1% 1,21 [-0,72, 3,14] Carrasco et al, 2009 -8,00 3,29 44 2,10 3,73 38 14,5% -10,10 [-11,63, -8,57] Subtotal (IC 95%) 90 58 28,6% -4,46 [-15,54, 6,62] Heterogeneidade: Tau2 = 63,17; Chi2 = 80,95, df= 1 (P < 0,00001); P = 99% Teste de efeito geral: Z = 0.”
Cell-Replacement and Gene-Therapy Strategies for Parkinson‘s and Alzheimer‘s Disease
Korecka, J. A., Verhaagen, J., & Hol, E. M. (2007) · Regenerative Medicine · doi:10.2217/17460751.2.4.425 · Cited by 48
Bhavnani, B. R., & Strickler, R. C. (2005) · Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada · doi:10.1016/s1701-2163(16)30186-4 · Cited by 49
Alzheimer?s disease: the impact of age-related changes in reproductive hormones
Gleason, C. E., Cholerton, B., Carlsson, C. M., Johnson, S. C., & Asthana, S. (2005) · Cellular and Molecular Life Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00018-004-4385-z · Cited by 49
Rademakers, R., Cruts, M., Sleegers, K., Dermaut, B., Theuns, J., Aulchenko, Y. S., Weckx, S., Pooter, T. D., den Broeck, M. V., Corsmit, E., et al. (2005) · The American Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1086/491749 · Cited by 51
“1% of the patients, AD develops before age 65 years (earlyonset AD) (Ott et al. 1998).”
BackgroundThe Glu318Gly Substitution in Presenilin 1 Is Not Causally Related to Alzheimer Disease
Dermaut, B., Cruts, M., Slooter, A. J. C., Gestel, S. V., Jonghe, C. D., Vanderstichele, H., Vanmechelen, E., Breteler, M. M. B., Albert Hofman, D., van Duijn, C. M., et al. (1999) · The American Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1086/302200 · Cited by 48
Self-citationTestosterone improves verbal learning and memory in postmenopausal women: results from a pilot study
Davison, S. L., Bell, R. J., Gavrilescu, M., Searle, K., Maruff, P., Gogos, A., Rossell, S. L., Adams, J., Egan, G. F., & Davis, S. R. (2011) · Maturitas · doi:10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.08.006 · Cited by 47
“The lifetime risk for dementia is higher in women [1–3].”
BackgroundFrequency and Causes of Early-onset Dementia in a Tertiary Referral Center in Athens
Papageorgiou, S. G., Kontaxis, T., Bonakis, A., Kalfakis, N., & Vassilopoulos, D. (2009) · Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders · doi:10.1097/wad.0b013e31819e6b28 · Cited by 47
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Dementia Risk: Potential Pathways to Cognitive Decline
Pyne, J. D., & Brickman, A. M. (2021) · Neurodegenerative Diseases · doi:10.1159/000518581 · Cited by 50
“It is those of older age who are at greatest risk for dementia [233], thus it is important to examine how COVID-19 might modulate this risk.”
BackgroundTyas, S. L., TATE, R. B., Wooldrage, K., Manfreda, J., & Strain, L. A. (2005) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2005.09.006 · Cited by 46
Yazdanpanah, N., Uitterlinden, A. G., Zillikens, M. C., Jhamai, M. M., Rivadeneira, F., Albert Hofman, D., de Jonge, R., Lindemans, J. W., Pols, H. A. P., & van Meurs, J. B. J. (2007) · Journal of Bone and Mineral Research · doi:10.1359/jbmr.070812 · Cited by 44
“The presence of type II diabetes mellitus was defined by the current use of anti-diabetic medication or by a nonfasting or postload plasma glucose levels > 11.1 mM.(32) Dementia was diagnosed with the use of the Mini–Mental State Examination and the Geriatric Mental State Schedule.”
MethodInfluentialA Mathematical Model of Alzheimer's Disease and the Apoe Gene
Macdonald, A. S., & Pritchard, D. (2000) · Astin Bulletin · doi:10.2143/ast.30.1.504627 · Cited by 44
“A number of studies report the incidence of AD (that is, the intensity /x^) by age but not by genotype, including Copeland et al. (1992), Hagnell et al. (1992), Kokmen et al. (1993), Letenneur et al. (1994), Nilsson (1984), Ott et al. (1998), Rocca et al. (1998) and Rorsman et al. (1986).”
Polvikoski, T., Sulkava, R., Rastas, S., Sutela, A., Niinistö, L., Notkola, I.-L., Verkkoniemi, A., Viramo, P., Juva, K., & Haltia, M. (2006) · Neuroepidemiology · doi:10.1159/000090252 · Cited by 43
The GAB2 Gene and the Risk of Alzheimer's Disease: Replication and Meta-Analysis
Ikram, M. A., Liu, F., Oostra, B. A., Albert Hofman, D., van Duijn, C. M., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2009) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2008.11.014 · Cited by 44
Self-citationMedway, C., Combarros, O., Cortina‐Borja, M., Butler, H., Ibrahim‐Verbaas, C. A., de Bruijn, R. F. A. G., Koudstaal, P. J., van Duijn, C. M., Ikram, M. A., Mateo, I., et al. (2013) · European Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1038/ejhg.2013.116 · Cited by 43
Variations in estrogen receptor α gene and risk of dementia, and brain volumes on MRI
den Heijer, T., Schuit, S. C. E., Pols, H. A. P., van Meurs, J. B. J., Albert Hofman, D., Koudstaal, P. J., van Duijn, C. M., Uitterlinden, A. G., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2004) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/sj.mp.4001553 · Cited by 43
“A three-step protocol was used as described in detail elsewhere”
MethodSelf-citationThe Neural Correlates of the Clock-Drawing Test in Healthy Aging
Talwar, N. A., Churchill, N. W., Hird, M. A., Pshonyak, I., Tam, F., Fischer, C. E., Graham, S. J., & Schweizer, T. A. (2019) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2019.00025 · Cited by 45
“A critical area of healthy aging is the transition from older middle age to >80 years of age, as this is when the prevalence of dementia substantially increases (Ott et al., 1998; van der Flier and Scheltens, 2005).”
BackgroundYamada, M., Mimori, Y., Kasagi, F., Miyachi, T., Ohshita, T., Sudoh, S., Ikeda, J., Matsui, K., Nakamura, S., Matsumoto, M., et al. (2008) · Neuroepidemiology · doi:10.1159/000122332 · Cited by 44
Lucca, U., Tettamanti, M., Tiraboschi, P., Logroscino, G., Landi, C., Sacco, L., Garrı̀, M., Ammesso, S., Biotti, A., Gargantini, E., et al. (2019) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.09.083 · Cited by 44
Metadata
- Authors
- Ott, A., Breteler, M. M. B., Harskamp, F. V., Stijnen, T., & Hofman, A.
- Affiliations
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Ott, A.
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1998-03-15
- Volume
- 147
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 574-580
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- OpenAlex
- W2039379003
- Cited by
- 455
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 15.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Keywords
- dementia incidence, dementia risk, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, age-specific incidence, sex differences, lifetime risk, older adults, Rotterdam Study
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Dementia, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prospective Studies, Risk, Incidence, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
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