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Re-thinking the coronavirus pandemic as a policy punctuation: COVID-19 as a path-clearing policy accelerator

Open access
Hogan, John, Howlett, Michael, Murphy, Mary·2022·Policy and Society
DOI 10.1093/polsoc/puab009
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Abstract

Abstract This article joins with others in this special issue to examine the evolution of our understanding of how the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic impacted policy ideas and routines across a wide variety of sectors of government activity. Did policy ideas and routines transform as a result of the pandemic or were they merely a continuation of the status quo ante? If they did transform, are the transformations temporary in nature or likely to lead to significant, deep and permanent reform to existing policy paths and trajectories? As this article sets out, the literature on policy punctuations has evolved and helps us understand the impact of COVID-19 on policy-making but tends to conflate several distinct aspects of path trajectories and deviations under the general concept of “critical junctures” which muddy reflections and findings. Once the different possible types of punctuations have been clarified, however, the result is a set of concepts related to path creation and disruption—especially that of “path clearing”—which are better able to provide an explanation of the kinds of policy change to be expected to result from the impact of events such as the 2019 coronavirus pandemic.

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  • Policy change during the pandemic may primarily have been limited to a few more 'proximate' policy areas.

    “UBI remains a hypothetical and”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Hogan et al., 2022

  • Public policy theories have often viewed exogenous shocks, such as economic or other crises, as conducive conditions for radical policy change, by creating critical junctures and "punctuating" long periods of relative stability.

    “Public policy theories have often viewed exogenous shocks, such as economic or other crises, as conducive conditions for radical policy change, by creating critical junctures and “punctuating” long periods of relative stability (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; see also Hogan et al., 2022).”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Hogan et al., 2022

  • The pandemic may have cleared the path and accelerated policy change in proximate areas where changes were already underway, while diverting attention from more distant policy areas.

    “The pandemic may have cleared the path and accelerated policy change in proximate areas where changes were already underway, while diverting attention from more distant policy areas (Hogan et al., 2022;Knill & Steinebach, 2022).”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Hogan et al., 2022

  • UBI remains a hypothetical and 'distant' policy area in most places.

    “UBI remains a hypothetical and”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Hogan et al., 2022

    The Conclusion (page unavailable) says the pandemic may have slowed change in more distant areas of state activity, but it does not identify UBI as one of them. Searches for “UBI,” “basic income,” and “hypothetical distant policy” found no passage addressing whether UBI remains hypothetical in most places. (LLM, conf=0.72)

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. Baumgartner, F. R., & Jones, B. D. (Eds.). (2002). Policy dynamics. University of Chicago Press.
  2. Collier, R. B., & Collier, D. (1991). Shaping the political arena: Critical junctures, the labour movement, and regime dynamics in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
  3. Flockhart, T. (2005). Critical junctures and social identity theory: Explaining the gap between Danish mass and elite attitudes to Europeanization. Journal of Common Market Studies, 43(2), 251-271.
  4. Howlett, M., & Tosun, J. (Eds.). (2019). Policy styles and policy-making: Exploring the linkages. Routledge.
  5. Kingdon, J. (1995). Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies (2nd ed.). Harper Collins.
  6. Kirkpatrick, S. E., Lester, J. P., & Peterson, M. R. (1999). The policy termination process: A conceptual framework and application to revenue sharing. Policy Studies Journal, 16(1), 209-236.
  7. Smith, G. D., Blastland, M., & Munafò, M. (2020). Covid-19's known unknowns. BMJ, 2866(371), 371.
  8. Smith, S. (2021). Post-pandemic housing transformation and the value of home. Symposium, Dublin Royal Irish Academy 26th February. Royal Irish Academy. Retrieved from: https://www.ria.ie/news/humanities- and-social-sciences-committees-social-sciences-committee/watch-post-pandemic-housing.
  9. Tilly, C. (1975). The formation of nation states in Western Europe. Princeton University Press.
  10. Valenzuela, J. S., & Valenzuela, A. (1981). Modernization and dependency: Alternative perspectives in the study of Latin American underdevelopment. In H. Munoz (Ed.), From dependency to development (pp. 15-42). Westview Press.
  11. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the state back in (pp. 107-164). Cambridge University Press.

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Authors
Hogan, J., Howlett, M., & Murphy, M.
Affiliations
  • Technological University Dublin (IE)
  • Simon Fraser University (CA)
  • National University of Ireland, Maynooth (IE)
Corresponding author
Hogan, John
ORCID
Venue
Policy and Society
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2022-01-10
Volume
41
Issue
1
Pages
40-52
ISSN
  • 1449-4035 (ISSN-L)
  • 1839-3373
DOI
10.1093/polsoc/puab009
OpenAlex
W4205907410
Cited by
87
References
96
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 14
FWCI
64.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Policy and Society (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Arrow - TU Dublin (Technological University Dublin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
  • Summit (Simon Fraser University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policy Transfer and Learning
  • Social Sciences › Public Administration › Public Policy and Administration Research
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Public Administration and Political Analysis
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, critical junctures, policy change, policy trajectories, policy ideas, government policy-making, policy reform

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