Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge help account for growth rates greater than measured increases in capital and labor inputs.

“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”

• cites Romer 1986 sourceSupported
• cites Romer 1990 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors even though it is not necessarily the most efficient in the long-run; once initial advantage is gained, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding alternatives.

“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”

• cites Arthur 1994 sourcePartly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites David 1985Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of the path dependent case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.

“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”

• cites Arthur 1994 sourceCould not verify

  The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists.

“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Despite high initial aspirations, the Clinton administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat on national health insurance.

“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Following their 1994 victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.

“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from the existing arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.

“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about technology itself but about characteristics of a technology in interaction with qualities of related social interactions.

“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context generate increasing returns: large set-up or fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.

“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Once in place, institutions are hard to change and have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.

“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”

• cites North 1990aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Social processes, including political ones, are fundamentally historical in nature; politics occurs in time and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.

“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Large set-up or fixed costs create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology and give individuals and organizations a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.

“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In a Polya urn process, for each individual trial the eventual ratio of red to black balls is unpredictable and could be anything between 0.01% red and 99.9% red.

“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Path dependence arguments can help orient political scientists to a modest set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.

“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The existence of path dependence in comparative advantage is now widely recognized in mainstream economics.

“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Learning effects lead to higher returns from continuing use: with repetition individuals learn to use products more effectively, and experiences spur further innovations.

“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

North argues that all features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions.

“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”

• cites North 1990aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Path dependence arguments can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, contributing to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.

“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”

May combine two claims.

Many social interactions have the features that generate increasing returns: new social initiatives entail start-up costs, individuals and organizations learn by doing, there are incentives to coordinate activities, and actors adapt behavior in light of expectations about others.

“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

North highlights parallels between characteristics of technology and certain characteristics of social interactions.

“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”

• cites North 1990aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Coordination effects occur when an individual receives increased benefits from an activity if others adopt the same option; positive network externalities make a technology more attractive as more people use it, attracting more users.

“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Most international trade is North-North; developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, including extensive exchanges within particular industries.

“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

If the institutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, people will invest in becoming good pirates; where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much economic growth.

“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”

• cites North 1990aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Increasing returns provided an answer to the trade puzzle: knowledge-intensive sectors are prone to positive feedback; countries that gain a lead in a field are likely to consolidate it over time, resulting in high specialization; even countries with similar initial endowments develop divergent areas of economic strength.

“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Path dependence arguments can direct attention toward particular variables and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phenomena.

“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”

May combine two claims.

If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being fastest out of the gate becomes key; there are strong incentives to focus on a single alternative and continue down a specific path once initial steps are taken.

“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels between technology and social interactions; there are other important ones.

“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.

“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”

May combine two claims.

The dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, involving high set-up or fixed costs, coordination effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations.

“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Legally binding rules are the very essence of politics, not just a foundation for political activity.

“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”

• cites Lindblom 1977Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Moe 1990Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Increasing returns characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, processes of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.

“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”

May combine two claims.

Increasing returns dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.

“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Politics is a far murkier environment than economics.

“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”

May combine two claims.

Both formal institutions and public policies place extensive, legally-binding constraints on behavior.

“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Margolis and Liebowitz are complacent about the capacity of market mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities central to increasing returns arguments.

“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”

May combine two claims.

Political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in short-term consequences; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.

“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Most participants in politics engage in activities only sporadically.

“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.

“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Problems of collective action abound in politics.

“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”

May combine two claims.

It is harder to identify observable aspects of political performance or determine which elements are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.

“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”

May combine two claims.

New institutions and policies often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.

“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”

May combine two claims.

The development of basic social understandings involves high start-up costs and learning effects and is frequently shared in ways that create network effects and adaptive expectations.

“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”

May combine two claims.

In politics, the pursuit of change faces two additional obstacles: short time-horizons of political actors and strong status quo bias associated with decision rules governing most political institutions.

“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Political actors often pursue a range of goals.

“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”

May combine two claims.

Political actions have consequences only when aggregated, with long lags and complex causal chains connecting them to outcomes.

“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”

May combine two claims.

Institutions and policies encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.

“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”

May combine two claims.

Politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems; complex and ambiguous issues gravitate toward the public sphere.

“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.

May combine two claims.

Confirming information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.

“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics.

“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased significantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”

May combine two claims.

Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.

“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”

May combine two claims.

The Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort: political interests grown up around the status quo (those benefiting from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (the Presidential veto) blocked the momentum of reform advocates.

“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Mobilization of potential supporters was difficult.

“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The number of Americans without insurance was high and growing rapidly.

“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The crucial object of study in path dependent processes, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a particular path.

“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”

May combine two claims.

Monitoring is often exceptionally difficult in politics, and it is hard to hold actors accountable because of rapid turnover of key positions.

“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.

“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”

• cites Collier and Collier 1991Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Path dependence arguments can help political scientists think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time and history in social analysis.

“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”

May combine two claims.

In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs; because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens too late may have no impact.

“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.

“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those junctures) are critical and why timing often matters so much.

“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

We cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a president faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.

“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”

• cites Skowronek 1993Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

An investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes provides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.

“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

These financial issues are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.

“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.

“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

American health care costs were extremely high by international standards and rising quickly.

“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.

“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

There are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics.

“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.

“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”

• cites ArthurNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The costs of jumping off a less-than-optimal path are borne in the short-run, while the benefits generally accrue only in the long run to someone else.

“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.

“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The task of convincing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of government's role in health care was very difficult.

“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”

May combine two claims.

Elected officials have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.

“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”

May combine two claims.

The massive array of interest groups that had gradually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision was a factor in the failure of health care reform, and is a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre-existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they induce.

“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The American health care system possessed clear shortcomings by a number of basic criteria.

“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”

• cites White 1995Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facilitate prediction remains a puzzle.

“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”

May combine two claims.

Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would otherwise be impossible.

“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The distinctive features of the political world include its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action problems, and the pervasiveness of short time-horizons.

“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Given complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over role of government in US, there was tremendous disagreement about appropriate policy response.

“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Designers do not want their agencies to fall under the control of opponents.

“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”

• cites Moe 1990Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons, especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.

“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of historical causes, where some original ordering moment caused current patterns and the activity is continuously reproduced even though the original event no longer occurs.

“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”

• cites Stinchcombe 1968Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Ikenberry 1994Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

An awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.

“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.

“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.

May combine two claims.

The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.

“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In the American Economic Association's classification system for journal articles one will now find models of trade with increasing returns and imperfect competition alongside the category for conventional trade models.

“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”

• cites Krugman 1996Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.

“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”

• cites NorthNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.