Information Manipulation, Coordination, and Regime Change*

“…et al., 2022; Guriev et al., 2026; Acemoglu et al., 2024; Crawford and Sobel, 1982; Kamenica and Gentzkow, 2011; Mullainathan and Shleifer, 2005; Edmond, 2013), algorithmic curation and recommendation design (Berman and Katona, 2020; Qian and Jain, 2024; Peitz and Sobolev, 2026; Xu and Yang,…”

“Finally, we incorporate an index of information reliability, adapted from the informational framework developed in Edmond (2013), intended to capture the precision of information available to agents engaged in strategic coordination.”

“The second form of manipulation is to downplay, conceal, or sugarcoat the hardship in an attempt to project competence (Edmond, 2013 ; Guriev & Treisman, 2015; Gehlbach et al., 2016 ; Rozenas & Stukal, 2019 ); curtail public distrust in the government (Honryo & Yano, 2021); reduce public opposition…”

“…selection (Goldstein and Pauzner, 2005); principals can alter coordination through targeted subsidies (S´akovics and Steiner, 2012) or discriminatory success-contingent rewards (Winter, 2004; Ha-lac, Kremer and Winter, 2020); and information manipulation changes signals and beliefs (Edmond, 2013).”

“Among the former, Edmond (2013) studies the role of state propaganda in suppressing collective action.”

“As in Svolik (2012) and Egorov and Sonin (2020), we assume that D is vulnerable to social unrest (also see Bueno De Mesquita (2010); Edmond (2013); Schadmehr and Bernhardt (2019)).”

“The first change relates to a large literature in global games where some “large” player can take an action that modifies the global game and leads to new applied insights about regime change (see Angeletos et al. (2006), Edmond (2013), and Morris and Shadmehr (2024)).”

“In Edmond (2013) there is an impact on regime stability depending on the economies of scale of media control.”

“As Edmond (2013) notes, we need to add an additional assumption to avoid the free-rider problem.”

“Edmon (2013) considers a game of regime change where there is uncertainty about the strength of the current regime 2In our model, there will be equilibria where all members of the elite choose the same tax rate (and equilibria where they do not).”

“Dewan and Myatt (2008) analyzes information transmission by leaders (see also Morris and Shin, 2002; and Hellwig, 2002 for the role of public information in global games), while Ekmekc i (2009) and Edmond (2013) study the implications of strategic information manipulation by a leader.”

“This can make governments susceptible to being toppled (Edmond, 2013).”

“The problem of a player (usually called ”policymaker”) who is attacked by a group has also been analyzed with a focus on signaling and information manipulation (Edmond, 2013), signaling through defensive measures (Angeletos and Pavan, 2013), reputation (Huang, 2014) and the optimal stopping problem when under attack (…”

“In more modern times, the use of propaganda in the run up to conflict is well documented (c.f. Glaeser 2009; Edmond 2013).”

“The same situation occurs in Edmond (2013). 13 An obvious additional assumption about T will be necessary to ensure a positive utility for the dictator (see below).”

“4Political-economy applications of the global game include riots (Atkeson 2000), the manipulation of information by the government (Edmond 2013), privately communicated rumors during revolution (Chen et al 2014), and violent actions by a “revolution entrepreneur” (Bueno de Mesquita…”

“ς γ Fernández-Villaverde et al. (2011) 5 5 Colacito et al.”

“1Recent models of regime change include Bueno de Mesquita (2010), Edmond (2013) and Chen and Suen (2016).”

“My model is di¤erent from standard sender/receiver games such as Crawford and Sobel (1982), Kartik(2009), and Edmond (2013).”

“1This is true in most models with incomplete information such as Morris and Shin (1998) for currency crises, Rochet and Vives (2004) for bank runs, Morris and Shin (2004a) for debt crises, and Edmond (2013) for political riots.”