Determinants of College Major Choice: Identification using an Information Experiment
Abstract
This article studies the determinants of college major choice using an experimentally generated panel of beliefs, obtained by providing students with information on the true population distribution of various major-specific characteristics. Students logically revise their beliefs in response to the information, and their subjective beliefs about future major choice are associated with beliefs about their own earnings and ability. We estimate a rich model of college major choice using the panel of beliefs data. While expected earnings and perceived ability are a significant determinant of major choice, heterogeneous tastes are the dominant factor in the choice of major. Analyses that ignore the correlation in tastes with earnings expectations inflate the role of earnings in college major choices. We conclude by computing the welfare gains from the information experiment and find positive average welfare gains.
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Wiswall and Zafar (2015) show that many college students have incorrect beliefs regarding the distribution of average starting salaries across college majors, that students' major choices are a function of these incorrect beliefs, and that biased beliefs can be corrected by an intervention that provides accurate information.
“For example, Wiswall and Zafar (2015) show that many college students have incorrect beliefs regarding the distribution of average starting salaries across college majors, that students' major choices are a function of these incorrect beliefs, and that biased beliefs can be corrected by an intervention that provides accurate information.”
From Who believes in me? The effect of student–teacher demographic match on teacher expectations (2016) · cites this paper as Wiswall and Zafar (2015)
Students hold biased beliefs about their learning in other educational settings.
“students hold biased beliefs in other educational settings (Jensen, 2010; Wiswall and Zafar, 2015)”
From Experimental Evidence on the Learning Impact of Generative AI (2026) · cites this paper as Wiswall and Zafar, 2015
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- Authors
- Wiswall, M., & Zafar, B.
- Affiliations
- Arizona State University (US)
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wiswall, M.
- Venue
- The Review of Economic Studies
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2014-12-17
- Volume
- 82
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 791-824
- ISSN
- 0034-6527 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-937X
- OpenAlex
- W3125230084
- Cited by
- 533
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 49 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 160.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economic Studies (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- college major choice, information experiment, perceived competence, subjective beliefs, expected earnings, welfare gains, higher education decision-making
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