Teacher Expectations Matter

Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Gershenson, Seth; Kang, Kyung Min

doi:10.1162/rest_a_00838

Cited by 178School Choice and PerformanceHigher Education Research StudiesEducation, Achievement, and Giftedness

Teacher Expectations Matter

Papageorge, Nicholas W., Gershenson, Seth, Kang, Kyung Min·2020·The Review of Economics and Statistics

DOI 10.1162/rest_a_00838

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Abstract

We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.

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White teachers often expect less of Black students than they do of White students.
“as Papageorge et al. (2020) recently discovered, White teachers often expect less of Black students than they do of White students.”
From Fostering Belonging, Transforming Schools: The Impact of Restorative Practices (2023) · cites this paper as Papageorge et al., 2020

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Authors: Papageorge, N. W., Gershenson, S., & Kang, K. M.
Affiliations: Johns Hopkins University (US)
American University (US)
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (CN)
ORCID: Gershenson, Seth
Venue: The Review of Economics and Statistics
Publisher: MIT Press
Published: 2020-05
Volume: 102
Issue: 2
Pages: 234-251
ISSN: 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
1530-9142
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00838
OpenAlex: W2948462698
Cited by: 178
References: 67
Citations by year: 2026: 14 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 4 · 2015: 1
FWCI: 40.47
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Education, Achievement, and Giftedness
Keywords: teacher expectations, college completion, educational expectations, measurement error models, racial disparities, teacher optimism, tenth grade

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