Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia
Abstract
The demographic transition—a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in East Asia during the twentieth century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this article shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia's so-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part because East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster rate than its dependent population during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate that population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working-age populations are growing at different rates. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
When fertility rates fall, the immediate effect is that the ratio of young dependent individuals to the working-age population starts to decrease, opening a window for a demographic dividend whereby the support ratio increases, allowing an increase in per capita GDP.
“When fertility rates fall, the immediate effect is that the ratio of young dependent individuals to the working-age population starts to decrease. This opens the window for a demographic dividend (Bloom & Williamson 1998, Bloom et al. 2003), whereby, for a certain duration, the support ratio increases, which allows for an increase in per capita GDP .”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Bloom & Williamson 1998
Population, instead of being a burden, turned out to be a resource for growth.
“Population, instead of being a burden, turned out to be a resource for growth (Bloom & Williamson 1998, Wang & Mason 2007).”
From The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy (2021) · cites this paper as Bloom & Williamson 1998
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2004) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002 · Cited by 1,492 · see citing works
Self-citationKlasen, S., & Lamanna, F. (2009) · Feminist Economics · doi:10.1080/13545700902893106 · Cited by 887 · see citing works
The effects of China’s universal two-child policy
Zeng, Y., & Hesketh, T. (2016) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31405-2 · Cited by 701 · see citing works
Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions
O'Neill, B. C., Dalton, M., Fuchs, R., Jiang, L., Pachauri, S., & Zigova, K. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1004581107 · Cited by 535 · see citing works
Productivity of Older Workers: Perceptions of Employers and Employees
Van Dalen, H. P., Henkens, K., & Schippers, J. (2010) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00331.x · Cited by 348 · see citing works
On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty
Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy
Cai, Y., & Feng, W. (2021) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-090220-032839 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Kotschy, R., Prettner, K., & Schünemann, J. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106575 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationA policy analysis on challenges and opportunities of population/household aging in China
Zeng, Y., & Wang, Z. (2014) · Journal of Population Ageing · doi:10.1007/s12062-014-9102-y · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Population, Poverty, and Climate Change
Das Gupta, M. (2014) · The World Bank Research Observer · doi:10.1093/wbro/lkt009 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Global Population Aging, 1950–2050
Navaneetham, K., & Arunachalam, D. (2023) · Handbook of Aging, Health and Public Policy · doi:10.1007/978-981-16-1914-4_154-1 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2024) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationDemography as a forecasting tool
Lindh, T. (2003) · Futures · doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(02)00049-6 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Synergy between Population Policy, Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
O’Sullivan, J. N. (2018) · Pathways to a Sustainable Economy · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-67702-6_7 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
An Empirical Analysis of the Demographic Trends in Least Developed Countries
Renuga Nagarajan, N., Teixeira, A. A. C., & Silva, S. T. (2017) · Ageing International · doi:10.1007/s12126-017-9283-9 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G.
- Venue
- The World Bank Economic Review
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1998-09-01
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 419-455
- ISSN
- 0258-6770 (ISSN-L)
- 1564-698X
- OpenAlex
- W2891947463
- Cited by
- 1,382
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 40 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 57 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 49 · 2015: 60 · 2014: 69 · 2013: 61 · 2012: 65
- FWCI
- 67.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The World Bank Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Asian Industrial and Economic Development
- Keywords
- demographic transition, economic growth, working-age population, dependent population, population growth, East Asia, economic miracle, fertility decline, mortality decline, Southeast Asia, South Asia
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
