Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models
Open accessAbstract
This article, which synthesizes the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation, raises significant doubts about many conventional hypotheses in the debate about deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. How technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation—if at all—is unknown. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also ambiguous. This review, however, finds that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase the pressure on forests. Although the boom in deforestation modeling has yielded new insights, weak methodology and poor-quality data make the results of many models questionable.
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We include controls for agricultural commodity prices, which have been shown to be drivers of deforestation.
“First, we include controls for agricultural commodity prices, which have been shown to be drivers of deforestation (Panayotou and Sungsuwan, 1994; Barbier and Burgess, 1996; Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999; Assunc ¸ão et al., 2015).”
From The Effect of Rural Credit on Deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon (2020) · cites this paper as Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999
Road density is one of the most relevant determinants of deforestation in the Amazon region.
“Finally, we test for dynamic effects by interacting policies with road density, which has been widely acknowledged as one of the most relevant determinants of deforestation in the Amazon region (Chomitz and Gray, 1996; Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999; Pfaff, 1999; Chomitz and Thomas, 2003; Pfaff et al., 2007).”
From The Effect of Rural Credit on Deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon (2020) · cites this paper as Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999
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Self-citationProximate Causes and Underlying Driving Forces of Tropical Deforestation
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The Economics of Tropical Deforestation
Balboni, C., Berman, A., Burgess, R., & Olken, B. A. (2023) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-090622-024705 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Nkonya, E. M., Pender, J. L., Kaizzi, K. C., Kato, E., Mugarura, S., Ssali, H., Muwonge, J., Nkonya, E. M., Pender, J. L., Kaizzi, K. C., et al. (2008) · Unknown · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.47224 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics
Berman, N., Couttenier, M., Leblois, A., & Soubeyran, R. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102819 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
- Authors
- Angelsen, A., & Kaimowitz, D.
- Affiliations
- Center for International Forestry Research (ID)
- ORCID
- Angelsen, A.
- Venue
- The World Bank Research Observer
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1999-02-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 73-98
- ISSN
- 0257-3032 (ISSN-L)
- 1564-6971
- OpenAlex
- W2044967565
- Cited by
- 1,012
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 60 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 49 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 33 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 66
- FWCI
- 14.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.cifor.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- The World Bank Research Observer (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- The World Bank Research Observer
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Socioeconomics of Resources and Conservation
- Keywords
- tropical deforestation, causes of deforestation, road construction, agricultural prices, off-farm employment, technological change, tenure security, population growth, economic liberalization, economic adjustment, forest policy
- MeSH terms
- Conservation of Natural Resources, Environment, Models, Theoretical, Research, Models, Economic
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