Cited by 589Asian Industrial and Economic DevelopmentEconomic Theory and PolicyGlobal trade and economics

Is There a Case for Industrial Policy? A Critical Survey

Open access
Pack, H.·2006·The World Bank Research Observer

Abstract

This article defines industrial policy as selective intervention to alter the production structure toward sectors expected to offer better growth prospects and concludes that empirical support for activist policy is limited despite theoretical market-failure arguments.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/wbro/lkl001

Cites

58 of 58 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

2 of 38 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged

  • Interpretationreasoning
    § Informational Externalities

    In economies where firms face substantial entry barriers, the underinvestment problem noted by Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) is not likely to be serious.

    “This suggests that in economies where firms face substantial entry barriers, the underinvestment problem noted by Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) is not likely to be serious.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) source
  • Findingnone given
    § Howard Pack • Kamal Saggi

    There are many instances where industrial policy has failed to yield any gains.

    “Although there are cases where government intervention coexists with success, there are many instances where industrial policy has failed to yield any gains.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    All the empirical analysis examines the contemporaneous impact of policies.

    “Moreover, all the empirical analysis examines the contemporaneous impact of policies-for example, did Korean industries that were encouraged experience greater total factor productivity growth in the period when main promotion occurred, 1973-85?”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    There are few clues in the existing literature about why some export processing zones have been successful, while most have failed.

    “There are few clues in the existing literature about why some export processing zones have been successful, while most have failed (for a review and an evaluation of the Philippine experience, see Calanog 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Calanog 2006
  • Findingcitation
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    Evaluation suggests that export-processing zones, while potentially useful, have had indifferent results.

    “Evaluation suggests that while potentially useful, they have had indifferent results (for references, see World Bank 2005).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites World Bank 2005

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 48
  • May combine two claims. 38
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Informational Externalities

    The market equilibrium in Hausmann and Rodrik's model yields too little specialization.

    “The second market failure identified by Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) is that the market equilibrium yields too little specialization-all activities that turn out to be profitable are sustained whereas optimality requires that only the one activity with the highest return be pursued.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    Between 2000 and 2002 India earned an estimated $3 billion in revenues from euro-related information technology projects.

    “Between 2000 and 2002 India earned an estimated $3 billion in revenues from euro-related information technology projects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    There are few normative evaluations of clusters in high-income countries employing social cost-benefit analyses or even grosser measures such as growth of exports relative to firms outside the cluster but in the same sector.

    “There are interesting descriptions of a number of clusters in high-income countries, but few normative evaluations of their success employing social cost-benefit analyses or even grosser measures such as growth of exports relative to firms outside the cluster but in the same sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    In Japan, industries that were encouraged did not experience significantly faster rates of total factor productivity growth than others, and R&D subsidies were largely ineffective.

    “Industries that were encouraged did not experience significantly faster rates of total factor productivity growth than others, and R&D subsidies were largely ineffective.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    Positive government efforts followed the takeoff of the Indian software sector.

    “Positive government efforts followed the takeoff of the sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Government Knowledge Requirements

    No study has attempted to assess whether governments have mastered these 15 areas that have to be addressed.

    “No study has attempted to assess whether governments have mastered these 15 areas (or others that can be derived from the discussion here) that have to be addressed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § New Industrial Policy

    Recent discussion of 'new' industrial policy including fostering learning and obtaining benefits from agglomeration economies offered by industrial clusters has received little systematic empirical evaluation.

    “Recent discussion of”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    The software sector earned $2.5 billion from Y2K billing from 1996 to 1999.

    “The National Association of Software and Service Companies, the software trade association, reported that the software sector earned $2.5 billion from Y2K billing from 1996 to 1999, a critical period in the growth of the industry (Software & Information Industry Association 2001).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Software & Information Industry Association 2001

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    While publicly financed education institutions generated the fundamental resource, educated workers, there was no explicit effort to galvanize the agglomeration economies that developed.

    “While publicly financed education institutions generated the fundamental resource, educated workers, there was no explicit effort to galvanize the agglomeration economies that developed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The zones did not discriminate among sectors.

    “The zones did not discriminate among sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    There have been more than a thousand export-processing zone efforts.

    “But there have been more than a thousand such efforts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    As late as 1988 software exports had been less than $200 million. By 1998 they were $3.6 billion, accounting for more than 10 percent of total Indian exports.

    “As late as 1988 software exports had been less than $200 million.By 1998 they were $3.6 billion, accounting for more than 10 percent of total Indian exports.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    As late as 1995, after substantial wage increases because of a rising demand for Indian software services, the annual wages of Indian software professionals were only 14-59 percent those of their counterparts in Canada, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    “As late as 1995, after substantial wage increases because of a rising demand for Indian software services, the annual wages of Indian software professionals were only 14-59 percent those of their counterparts in Canada, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    Taiwan, China's experience in the Hsinchu Science Park may be an exception, but it is so far unconfirmed by systematic evidence.

    “Taiwan, China's experience in the Hsinchu Science Park may be an exception, but it is so far unconfirmed by systematic evidence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    Any selective economic policies would have to simultaneously address the weakness of the financial sector along with that of goods and other services.

    “On the contrary, it also implies that any selective economic policies would have to simultaneously address the weakness of the financial sector along with that of goods and other services.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    The belief that if there were opportunities investors would exploit them might be somewhat of a weak link in Baldwin's argument.

    “Thus, the belief that if there were opportunities investors would exploit them might be somewhat of a weak link in Baldwin's argument.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    What may appear to be a successful industrial policy may not be the first-best outcome from a country's perspective.

    “Klimenko's rigorous analysis underscores the intuitive argument that the relevant counterfactuals are unavailable, and what may appear to be a successful industrial policy may not be the first-best outcome from a country's perspective.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    A policy of rewarding early entrants requires an accurate forecast of the social value of their inventions and discoveries, a process that can be fraught with failure.

    “Thus, a policy of rewarding early entrants requires an accurate forecast of the social value of their inventions and discoveries-a process that can be fraught with failure.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    DARPA foresaw a potential need that private firms might not have.

    “Moreover, DARPA foresaw a potential need that private firms might not have.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    Optimal subsidies would have to be nonuniform, and the government is unlikely to possess the information needed to implement an optimal subsidy program.

    “Optimal subsidies would have to be nonuniform, and the government is unlikely to possess the information needed to implement an optimal subsidy program.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    DARPA is widely credited with having been the key contributor to the development of the Internet.

    “The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a small unit within the U.S. Department of Defense that generated and financed a portfolio of projects, is widely credited with having been the key contributor to the development of the Internet, in response to the need to maintain communications during an assault on the United States.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    What is needed are subsidies to initial entrants into the industry that help create new knowledge and discover better production technologies.

    “What is needed are subsidies to initial entrants into the industry that help create new knowledge and discover better production technologies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    The informational constraints facing policymakers pursuing industrial policy are severe and any realistic model of industrial targeting needs to account for them.

    “The informational constraints facing policymakers pursuing industrial policy are severe and any realistic model of industrial targeting needs to account for them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given
    § Howard Pack • Kamal Saggi

    Market failures exist that can, in principle, justify the use of industrial policy.

    “Overall, there appears to be little empirical support for an activist government policy even though market failures exist that can, in principle, justify the use of industrial policy.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    Prospects for most new industries are uncertain and no one really knows whether a particular infant industry will be profitable in the future.

    “While the infant industry argument assumes that it is known with certainty that the industry in question will eventually be profitable, it seems more likely that the prospects for most new industries are uncertain and that no one really knows whether a particular infant industry will be profitable in the future.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § Why Industrial Policy?

    There is room for government intervention when there are market distortions or when markets are incomplete.

    “At a general level there is room for government intervention when there are market distortions (such as externalities or market power) or when markets are incomplete (for example, future markets for many goods simply do not exist).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    Despite the existence of market failures, the outcome of the learning process through private experimentation without any assistance from the government can yield outcomes that are closer to the full information social optimum.

    “He goes on to show that despite the existence of market failures, the outcome of the learning process through private experimentation (without any assistance from the government) can yield outcomes that are closer to the full information social optimum.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Klimenko (2004) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    If future returns fall short of initial losses, the industry should not be established in the first place.

    “It is obvious, but worth stressing, that if future returns fall short of initial losses, the industry should not be established in the first place.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    An optimally designed industrial policy can lead a country to specialize in sectors in which it does not have comparative advantage.

    “He shows that an optimally designed industrial policy can lead a country to specialize in sectors in which it does not have comparative advantage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Klimenko (2004) source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    Allocating resources according to comparative advantage can only ensure static efficiency and in no way guarantees dynamic efficiency.

    “Allocating resources according to comparative advantage can only ensure static efficiency and in no way guarantees dynamic efficiency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Knowledge Spillovers, Dynamic Scale Economies, and Industrial Targeting

    The discovery of general purpose technologies is a rare event and less likely in low innovation-intensity developing countries than in research-rich industrial countries.

    “While the Internet was a main technological breakthrough and suggests the potential gains from such activity, it is useful to remember that the discovery of such general purpose technologies is a rare event and less likely in low innovation-intensity developing countries than in research-rich industrial countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § The Infant Industry Argument: A Precursor of Modern Industrial Policy

    Learning is rarely exogenous and usually requires considerable effort and investment by firms.

    “Of course, learning is rarely exogenous, and it usually requires considerable effort and investment by firms (Pack and Westphal 1986).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pack and Westphal 1986 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § The Indian Software Industry

    In India a precondition for the development of the software industry was high-quality education in junior colleges and universities financed by the government.

    “In India a precondition for the development of the software industry was high-quality education in junior colleges and universities financed by the government.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    The Asian financial crises of the late 1990s and Japan's stagnation since 1990 can be interpreted as partly the result of earlier government directed lending that minimized the need for banks to learn modern techniques of evaluating individual projects and managing the riskiness of their overall portfolio.

    “For example, the Asian financial crises of the late 1990s and Japan's stagnation since 1990 can be interpreted as partly the result of earlier government directed lending that minimized the need for banks to learn modern techniques of evaluating individual projects and managing the riskiness of their overall portfolio.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    Individual market agents may not be aware of the externality they generate for others, and this provides an additional market failure that could in principle be addressed by public intervention.

    “Individual market agents may not be aware of the externality they generate for others, and this provides an additional market failure that could in principle be addressed by public intervention.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Informational Externalities

    Because Hoff's model is clearly more realistic, her results weaken the case for subsidizing an infant industry.

    “Because Hoff's model is clearly more realistic, it is notable that her results weaken the case for subsidizing an infant industry.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hoff (1997) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Indian Software Industry

    The lamented brain drain became, with a lag, a source of strength and a critical catalytic input to development of the Indian software industry.

    “The lamented brain drain became, with a lag, a source of strength and a critical catalytic input to development of the Indian software industry.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Coordination Failures as a Rationale for Industrial Policy

    In small developing countries a large-scale investment by a multinational can create sufficient demand for intermediates and easily resolve the coordination problem.

    “In small developing countries a large-scale investment by a multinational can create sufficient demand for intermediates and easily resolve the coordination problem.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § The International Dimension: Role of Exports and FDI

    The efficacy of investment incentives is unclear-such policies could easily end up transferring rents to foreign investors without affecting their investment decisions.

    “The efficacy of investment incentives is also unclear-such policies could easily end up transferring rents to foreign investors without affecting their investment decisions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § The International Dimension: Role of Exports and FDI

    Incentives to attract FDI may be justified on the grounds of positive externalities from inward FDI, but the magnitude of some of the incentives being used seems difficult to justify.

    “Incentives to attract FDI may be justified on the grounds of such externalities from inward FDI, but the magnitude of some of the incentives being used seems difficult to justify (Moran 1998), and such policies are not typically what proponents of industrial policy have in mind.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Moran 1998

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § The International Dimension: Role of Exports and FDI

    The potential surely exists for positive externalities from FDI, and evidence exists that this potential is often realized.

    “The potential surely exists for positive externalities from FDI, and evidence exists that this potential is often realized.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    Clusters could offer an alternative to dependence on either buyer- or manufacturer-led networks.

    “Clusters could offer an alternative to dependence on either buyer-or manufacturer-led networks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The decision by Taiwan, China, to foster a science park comes closer to a proactive industrial policy, but the experience at Hsinchu has not been systematically evaluated.

    “The decision by Taiwan, China, to foster a science park comes closer to a proactive industrial policy, but the experience at Hsinchu has not been systematically evaluated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    Pack (2000) finds that sectors encouraged in Japan and Korea had few linkages with nonfavored sectors through input-output relations, and there is little evidence of labor flowing from favored to neglected sectors.

    “However, Pack (2000) finds that sectors that were encouraged in Japan and the Republic of Korea had few linkages with nonfavored sectors through input-output relations, and there is little evidence of labor flowing from favored to neglected sectors, a likely mechanism for the transmission of knowledge.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pack (2000) source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    In the Indian software sector and the Bangladesh garment sector, the initiating force was private, with the government playing almost no role except for the fundamental one in India of providing good education.

    “In the Indian software sector and the Bangladesh garment sector, the initiating force was private, with the government playing almost no role except for the fundamental one in India of providing good education.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The rapid development of the software industry in Bangalore and other cities in India appears to be the outcome of the combination of a large group of well-educated English-speaking students, the entrepreneurial abilities of a small group of residents, and the activities of a large Indian expatriate community, particularly in Silicon Valley.

    “Similarly, the rapid development of the software industry in Bangalore and other cities in India, discussed below, appears to be the outcome of the combination of a large group of well-educated English-speaking students, the entrepreneurial abilities of a small group of residents, and the activities of a large Indian expatriate community, particularly in Silicon Valley.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The establishment of a science park in Taiwan, China, and legislation in China to allow special economic zones to attract FDI resulted from an initial government stimulus.

    “The establishment of a science park in Taiwan, China, and legislation in China to allow special economic zones to attract FDI resulted from an initial government stimulus.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Saxenian 1999

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rosen 1999

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Huang 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The International Dimension: Role of Exports and FDI

    The information asymmetry can lead to market failure that can then potentially justify some form of intervention.

    “The information asymmetry can lead to market failure that can then potentially justify some form of intervention.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    Japan's growth would have been even faster if it had cut tariffs and exposed a greater share of its domestic producers to foreign competition.

    “From this they conclude that Japan's growth would have been even faster if it had cut tariffs and exposed a greater share of its domestic producers to foreign competition.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lawrence and Weinstein (2001)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    Lawrence and Weinstein (2001) find that differential corporate tax rates had an impact on sectoral TFP growth in Japan, whereas direct subsidies and subsidized loans did not.

    “Employing a slightly different data set, Lawrence and Weinstein (2001) extend this research and find that differential corporate tax rates had an impact on sectoral total factor productivity growth, whereas direct subsidies and subsidized loans did not.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lawrence and Weinstein (2001)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Government Knowledge Requirements

    The range and depth of knowledge that policymakers would have to master to implement successful industrial policy is extraordinary.

    “The range and depth of knowledge that policymakers would have to master to implement successful policy is extraordinary.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Informational Externalities

    This result reflects the general equilibrium nature of their model and the fact that they consider a small open economy.

    “This result reflects the general equilibrium nature of their model and the fact that they consider a small open economy.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    In the 1990s the ratio of world prices for programming services relative to those in India rose because of a global shortage of programmers and the demands for solutions to the anticipated Y2K problem.

    “In the 1990s the ratio of world prices for programming services relative to those in India rose because of a global shortage of programmers and the demands for solutions to the anticipated Y2K problem.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    Silicon Valley in California arose spontaneously.

    “The main example usually cited is that of Silicon Valley in California, which most accounts suggest arose spontaneously.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Does Industrial Policy Work?

    Lawrence and Weinstein (2001) find that the effective rate of protection was negatively associated with sectoral TFP growth and that imports, not exports, were positively associated with TFP growth in Japan.

    “Moreover, they find the paradoxical result that the effective rate of protection was negatively associated with sectoral total factor productivity growth and that imports, not exports, were positively associated with total factor productivity growth.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lawrence and Weinstein (2001)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    In China, the special economic zones mimicked the effects of a free trade policy, neutralizing adverse public policies.

    “In China, the special economic zones mimicked the effects of a free trade policy, neutralizing adverse public policies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The benefit of clusters may arise from face-to-face interactions that are productivity enhancing, a pool of workers with relevant skills, or reduced transportation costs.

    “The benefit of clusters may arise from face-to-face interactions that are productivity enhancing (interactions between software writers and chip manufacturers, for example), a pool of workers with the relevant skills, or reduced transportation costs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Export Processing Zones and Other Clusters

    The development of clusters could boost productivity through the provision of overhead services by the organizers plus the interaction of the firms entering the cluster.

    “In principle, the development of clusters could boost productivity through the provision of overhead services by the organizers plus the interaction of the firms entering the cluster.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    While in principle poorer countries can find niches in which they have a comparative advantage, finding them is likely to require skills that are best nurtured by membership in a production network or direct interaction with large retailers.

    “While in principle poorer countries can find niches in which they have a comparative advantage, finding them is likely to require skills that are best nurtured by membership in a production network or direct interaction with large retailers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    It seems unlikely that any government could have foreseen and acted on these serendipitous demands.

    “As for industrial policy, of whatever form, it seems unlikely that any government could have foreseen and acted on these serendipitous demands.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § The foreign role.

    In 1998, 774 (9 percent) of high-technology firms were led by Indian chief executive officers (CEOs).

    “In 1998, 774 (9 percent) of the high-technology firms were led by Indian chief executive officers (CEOs) (James 2000).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites James 2000

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    In East Asia, components constitute at least a fifth of manufacturing exports and have typically grown 4-5 percent faster than overall trade in East Asia.

    “In East Asia, in recent years, components”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Yusuf and others 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Indian software industry and the new industrial policy.

    The Indian software industry expanded on the basis of comparative advantage and never needed any protection.

    “The industry expanded on the basis of comparative advantage and never needed any protection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Concluding Remarks

    In these economies hewing to some of the main tenets of the Washington Consensus (while recognizing some of its weaknesses) might prove a better investment of limited government competence and legitimacy than the extraordinarily complex strategies required by either the new or the old industrial policy.

    “But in these economies hewing to some of the main tenets of the Washington Consensus (while recognizing some of its weaknesses) might prove a better investment of limited government competence and legitimacy than the extraordinarily complex strategies required by either the new or the old industrial policy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § The foreign role.

    Indian expatriates actively raised venture capital from U.S. investment firms and organized conferences in the United States to heighten awareness of the potential of India's software industry.

    “they actively raised venture capital from U.S. investment firms and organized conferences in the United States to heighten awareness of the potential of India's software industry (Kripalani 2000).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kripalani 2000

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Concluding Remarks

    The international policy environment today imposes constraints on the use of national policies that were absent even 15 years ago, and the constraints are backed by the potent dispute settlement procedure of the WTO.

    “Certainly, the international policy environment today imposes constraints on the use of national policies that were absent even 15 years ago, and the constraints are backed by the potent dispute settlement procedure of the WTO (Noland and Pack 2003, chapter 5).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Noland and Pack 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Concluding Remarks

    The growth of the Indian software sector, Bangladesh's clothing industry, and China's special economic zones was driven primarily by private-sector agents (often from abroad).

    “The growth of the Indian software sector, Bangladesh's clothing industry, and China's special economic zones was driven primarily by private-sector agents (often from abroad).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    Promoting specific activities within the entire production nexus is beyond the capacity of all but the most competent of governments.

    “this is beyond the capacity of all but the most competent of governments (Humphrey and Schmitz 2002).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Humphrey and Schmitz 2002

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    One effect of the growing importance of international product networks is their efficiency at organizing production and continuously reducing costs so that the global price that nonmember firms must compete with shifts down rapidly.

    “One effect of the growing importance of international product networks is their efficiency at organizing production and continuously reducing costs so that the global price that nonmember firms must compete with shifts down rapidly.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Indian software industry and the new industrial policy.

    Governments at various levels became involved in the Indian software industry only after the success of the sector was evident, ratifying the success rather than catalyzing it.

    “Governments at various levels became involved only after the success of the sector was evident, ratifying the success rather than catalyzing it.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Large numbers of English-trained programming graduates.

    Random events-the Y2K problem and the shift to the euro-exerted positive feedback and generated a succession of mutually reinforcing benefits.

    “Thus random events-the Y2K problem and the shift to the euro-exerted positive feedback and generated a succession of mutually reinforcing benefits.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Concluding Remarks

    The difficulty with the approach of negotiating with multinational firms is the limited amount of FDI going to developing countries-many countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America continue to receive little.

    “The difficulty with this approach is the limited amount of FDI going to developing countries-many countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America continue to receive little.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    Both China and India still have hundreds of millions of workers, largely in the rural sector, who remain poor and will keep a lid on real wages faced by industrialists over the next decades, implying a continuing supply of low-cost products in many sectors.

    “both still have hundreds of millions of workers, largely in the rural sector, who remain poor and will keep a lid on real wages faced by industrialists over the next decades, implying a continuing supply of low-cost products in many sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    These networks have become increasingly important and are dominant in clothing and electronics and are growing in importance in products such as automotive components.

    “These networks have become increasingly important and are dominant in clothing and electronics and are growing in importance in products such as automotive components.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Yusuf and others 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Concluding Remarks

    In Bangladesh and India the main role of the government was benign neglect, whereas China imitated the earlier success of Singapore by enabling the location of foreign investment in enclaves that were well provided with infrastructure.

    “In Bangladesh and India the main role of the government was benign neglect, whereas China imitated the earlier success of Singapore by enabling the location of foreign investment in enclaves that were well provided with infrastructure.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Is Industrial Policy Still Relevant?

    China and India present formidable competitors, as demonstrated by concern over the termination of the Multifiber Arrangement and the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and the potential losses incurred by countries that formerly had guaranteed access to OECD markets.

    “Moreover, China and India present formidable competitors, as demonstrated by the concern over the termination of the Multifiber Arrangement and the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and the potential losses incurred by countries that formerly had guaranteed access to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development markets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
76 of 76
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The performance of equity analysts in industrial country stock markets is a valid benchmark for the ability of government officials to evaluate industrial policy.

    “It is possible that government officials might be this omniscient, but the performance of the portfolio managers in industrial country stock markets suggests that few of the well-trained (and remunerated) equity analysts can evaluate even much more certain and grosser characteristics of existing firms and industries with long track records.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There are capital market failures that preclude a nascent trading firm from obtaining finance.

    “Again, this assumes that there are capital market failures that preclude a nascent trading firm from obtaining finance.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Texas Instruments augmented Bangalore's inadequate land-based telecommunication infrastructure by investing in its own satellite communications network.

    “Texas Instruments, the first foreign firm to establish an offshore software facility in Bangalore in 1984, augmented Bangalore's inadequate land-based telecommunication infrastructure by investing in its own satellite communications network.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Some of Texas Instruments' satellite lines were later leased to other software firms, enabling them to expand their India-based operations instead of relying solely on onsite services abroad.

    “Some of its lines were later leased to other software firms, enabling them to expand their India-based operations instead of relying solely on onsite services abroad.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Until the government built software technology parks in the 1990s, Texas Instrument's satellite network remained an important driving force behind the offshore development of software exports.

    “Until the government built software technology parks in the 1990s linked to earth stations and other telecommunications infrastructure, Texas Instrument's satellite network remained an important driving force behind the offshore development of software exports.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Republic of Korea and Taiwan, China, had numerous trading companies that aggregated the orders of local manufacturers, following the Japanese model of the shosha soga.

    “The Republic of Korea and Taiwan, China, had numerous trading companies that aggregated the orders of local manufacturers, following the Japanese model of the shosha soga.”
6 of 6

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

11 of the 69 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 7

  1. [23]23. James, David. 2000. "India Starts Up." Upside Magazine 12(4):265-69.
  2. [32]32. Larrain B., Felipe, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Andres Rodriguez-Clare. 2000. "Intel: A Case Study of FDI in Central America." CID Working Paper 58. Harvard University, Center for International Development, Cambridge, Mass.
  3. [56]56. Ruttan, Vernon. 2001. Technology, Growth, and Development: An Induced Innovation Perspective. New York: Oxford University Press.
  4. [62]62. Sturgeon, Timothy, and Richard Lester. 2002. "Upgrading East Asian Industries: New Challenges for Local Suppliers." Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Industrial Performance Center, Cambridge, Mass.
  5. [63]63. Sturgeon, Timothy, and Richard Lester. 2003. "The New Global Supply-Base: New Challenges for Local Suppliers in East Asia." Working Paper 03-001. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Industrial Performance Center, Cambridge, Mass.
  6. [64]64. Succar, Patricia. 1987. "The Need for Industrial Policy in LDCs-A Restatement of the Infant Industry Argument." International Economic Review 28(2):521-34.
  7. [65]65. UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development). 2001. World Investment Report: Promoting Linkages. New York.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Pack, H.
Affiliations
Southern Methodist University (US)
Corresponding author
Pack, H.
Venue
The World Bank Research Observer
Published
2006-08-05
Volume
21
Issue
2
Pages
267-297
ISSN
  • 0257-3032 (ISSN-L)
  • 1564-6971
OpenAlex
W2113964908
Cited by
589
References
69
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 48 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 46 · 2012: 16
FWCI
150.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The World Bank Research Observer (publishedVersion)
  • The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (World Bank) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Asian Industrial and Economic Development
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
Keywords
industrial policy, market failure, industrialization, state intervention, international production networks, developing countries, industrial policy effectiveness

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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