Prediction of frequency and exposure level of solar particle events
Abstract
For future space missions outside of the Earth's magnetic field, the risk of radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPEs) during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern when designing radiation protection including determining sufficient shielding requirements for astronauts and hardware. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by solar modulation, SPE occurrences themselves are chaotic in nature. We report on a probabilistic modeling approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, we then estimated the expected frequency of SPEs at any given proton fluence threshold with energy >30 MeV (Phi(30)) during a defined space mission period. Analytic energy spectra of 34 large SPEs observed in the space era were fitted over broad energy ranges extending to GeV, and subsequently used to calculate the distribution of mGy equivalent (mGy-Eq) dose for a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) inside a spacecraft as a function of total Phi(30) fluence. This distribution was combined with a simulation of SPE events using the Poisson model to estimate the probability of the BFO dose exceeding the NASA 30-d limit of 250 mGy-Eq per 30 d. These results will be useful in implementing probabilistic risk assessment approaches at NASA and guidelines for protection systems for astronauts on future space exploration missions.
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SPEs can last from several hours to several weeks.
“SPEs can last from several hours to several weeks [29], [30], [31].”
From Hindlimb suspension and spe-like radiation impairs clearance of bacterial infections (2014) · cites this paper as [29]
SPEs occur quite often (with frequencies of up to 3 per day), but it is difficult to predict their onset and size; the expected overall frequency is strongly influenced by the solar cycle, with a general increase in SPE occurrence with increasing solar activity.
“SPEs occur quite often (with frequencies of up to 3 per day [29]), but it is difficult to predict their onset and size; the expected overall frequency, however, is strongly influenced by the solar cycle, with a general increase in SPE occurrence with increasing solar activity [29].”
From Hindlimb suspension and spe-like radiation impairs clearance of bacterial infections (2014) · cites this paper as [29]
During extravehicular activities without Earth's magnetic field protection, an astronaut could receive 32 Gy of radiation to the skin and 2 Gy to the bone marrow during a strong SPE.
“During extravehicular activities without this protection, an astronaut could receive 32 Gy of radiation to the skin and 2 Gy to the bone marrow during a strong SPE [27], [29].”
From Hindlimb suspension and spe-like radiation impairs clearance of bacterial infections (2014) · cites this paper as [29]
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- Authors
- Kim, M.-H. Y., Hayat, M. J., Feiveson, A. H., & Cucinotta, F. A.
- Affiliations
- Universities Space Research Association (US)
- Johnson Space Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kim, Myung-Hee Y.
- Hayat, Matthew J.
- Venue
- Health Physics
- Published
- 2009-07
- Volume
- 97
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 68-81
- ISSN
- 0017-9078 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2009721398
- Cited by
- 71
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 3.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Health Physics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Radiation Therapy and Dosimetry
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Effects of Radiation Exposure
- Keywords
- solar energetic particle events, non-homogeneous Poisson process, proton fluence, solar cycle, radiation exposure, astronaut radiation protection, spacecraft shielding, energy spectrum, probabilistic risk assessment
- MeSH terms
- Body Burden, Computer Simulation, Cosmic Radiation, Humans, Models, Biological, Radiation Dosage, Radiation Monitoring, Relative Biological Effectiveness, Whole-Body Counting, Solar Activity
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