High Gasoline Prices and Mortality From Motor Vehicle Crashes and Air Pollution
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of increasing gas prices on mortality. METHOD: We developed a simulation-based partial equilibrium model that estimated the public health effects of a 20% rise in gas prices. Estimates on price elasticity for gasoline, price elasticity of motor vehicle crashes, relations among gasoline use, air pollution, and mortality were drawn from literature in economics, epidemiology, and medicine. RESULTS: For sustained 20% increases in gasoline prices over 1 year, and assuming other prices and factors were constant, we estimated: 1994 (range, 997 to 4984) fewer deaths from vehicle crashes and 600 (range, 300 to 1500) fewer deaths from air pollution. Combining both, we estimated 2594 fewer deaths. A Monte Carlo simulation involving varying assumptions on elasticities and relations indicated that 95% of the combined reduction in deaths was between 1747 and 3714. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that high gas prices have public health implications.
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Gasoline consumption is responsive to price changes.
“Gasoline consumption is responsive to price changes,195–197”
From Population Approaches to Improve Diet, Physical Activity, and Smoking Habits: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2012) · cites this paper as [197]
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- Authors
- Leigh, J. P., & Geraghty, E. M.
- Affiliations
- University of California Davis Medical Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Leigh, J Paul
- Venue
- Journal of Occupational & Environmental Medicine
- Published
- 2008-03
- Volume
- 50
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 249-254
- ISSN
- 1076-2752 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2151489441
- Cited by
- 32
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2022: 2 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 1.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Health Resources and Services Administration
- U.S. Public Health Service (D55 HP00232)
- National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (R01 OH008248-02)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Traffic and Road Safety
- Keywords
- gasoline prices, traffic accidents, traffic fatalities, air pollution, mortality, price elasticity, gasoline consumption, public health impact, partial equilibrium model, Monte Carlo simulation
- MeSH terms
- Accidents, Traffic, Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, Vehicle Emissions, Commerce, Computer Simulation, Gasoline, Humans, Monte Carlo Method, United States, Models, Econometric, Particulate Matter
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