CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 110Marine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management StudiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Spawning stock and recruitment in North Sea cod shaped by food and climate

Open access
Olsen, Esben Moland, Ottersen, Geir, Llope, Marcos, Chan, Kung-Sik, Beaugrand, Grégory, Stenseth, Nils Chr.·2011·Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DOI 10.1098/rspb.2010.1465PMC PMC3025682
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

In order to provide better fisheries management and conservation decisions, there is a need to discern the underlying relationship between the spawning stock and recruitment of marine fishes, a relationship which is influenced by the environmental conditions. Here, we demonstrate how the environmental conditions (temperature and the food availability for fish larvae) influence the stock–recruitment relationship and indeed what kind of stock–recruitment relationship we might see under different environmental conditions. Using unique zooplankton data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, we find that food availability (i.e. zooplankton) in essence determines which model applies for the once large North Sea cod ( Gadus morhua ) stock. Further, we show that recruitment is strengthened during cold years and weakened during warm years. Our combined model explained 45 per cent of the total variance in cod recruitment, while the traditional Ricker and Beverton–Holt models only explained about 10 per cent. Specifically, our approach predicts that a full recovery of the North Sea cod stock might not be expected until the environment becomes more favourable.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1098/rspb.2010.1465

Cites

3 of 3 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The importance of food availability on recruitment is also found in other marine fishes, e.g., Pomacentrus amboinensis, Sardina pilchardus, and North Sea cod.

    “The importance of food availability on recruitment is also found in other marine fishes, e.g., Pomacentrus amboinensis (Jones, 1986), Sardina pilchardus (Guisande et al., 2001), and North Sea cod (Olsen et al., 2011).”

    From Impacts of phytoplankton availability on bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) recruitment in the Indian Ocean (2024) · cites this paper as Olsen et al., 2011

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 42

  1. [1]Brander K. M. 2007 Global fish production and climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 19 709– 19 714 10.1073/pnas.0702059104 (doi:10.1073/pnas.0702059104) PMC2148362 18077405 · DOI · Paper page
  2. [2]Beaugrand G. Edwards M. Brander K. Luczak C. Ibañez F. 2008 Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic. Ecol. Lett. 11, 1157– 1168 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x) 18647332 · DOI
  3. [3]Pörtner H. O. 2001 Climate induced temperature effects on growth performance, fecundity and recruitment in marine fish: developing a hypothesis for cause and effect relationships in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus). Cont. Shelf Res. 21, 1975– 1997 10.1016/S0278-4343(01)00038-3 (doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(01)00038-3) · DOI
  4. [4]Beaugrand G. Kirby R. R. 2010 Climate, plankton and cod. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1268– 1280 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02063.x (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02063.x) · DOI
  5. [5]Johansen R. 2007 A model for the interaction between gadoid larvae and their nauplii prey. Math. Biosci. 208, 177– 192 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.005 (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.005) 17125803 · DOI
  6. [8]Koslow J. 1992 Fecundity and the stock–recruitment relationship. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 49, 210– 217 10.1139/f92-025 (doi:10.1139/f92-025) · DOI
  7. [9]Iles T. C. 1994 A review of stock recruitment relationships with reference to flatfish populations. Neth. J. Sea Res. 32, 399– 420 10.1016/0077-7579(94)90017-5 (doi:10.1016/0077-7579(94)90017-5) · DOI
  8. [10]Needle C. L. 2002 Recruitment models: diagnosis and prognosis. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 11, 95– 111 10.1023/A:1015208017674 (doi:10.1023/A:1015208017674) · DOI
  9. [11]Keyl F. Wolff M. 2008 Environmental variability and fisheries: what can models do? Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 18, 273– 299 10.1007/s11160-007-9075-5 (doi:10.1007/s11160-007-9075-5) · DOI
  10. [12]Cushing D. H. Horwood J. W. 1994 The growth and death of fish larvae. J. Plankt. Res. 16, 291– 300 10.1093/plankt/16.3.291 (doi:10.1093/plankt/16.3.291) · DOI
  11. [13]Horwood J. Cushing D. Wyatt T. 2000 Plankton determination of variability and sustainability of fisheries. J. Plankt. Res. 22, 1419– 1422 10.1093/plankt/22.7.1419 (doi:10.1093/plankt/22.7.1419) · DOI
  12. [14]Horwood J. 1995 Plankton-generated chaos in the modelled dynamics of haddock. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 350, 109– 118 10.1098/rstb.1995.0145 (doi:10.1098/rstb.1995.0145) · DOI
  13. [18]Batten S. D. 2003 CPR sampling: the technical background, materials and methods, consistency and comparability. Prog. Oceanogr. 58, 193– 215 10.1016/j.pocean.2003.08.004 (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2003.08.004) · DOI
  14. [19]Cook R. M. Sinclair A. Stefánsson G. 1997 Potential collapse of North Sea cod stocks. Nature 385, 521– 522 10.1038/385521a0 (doi:10.1038/385521a0) · DOI
  15. [20]Beaugrand G. Brander K. M. Lindley J. A. Souissi S. Reid P. C. 2003 Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature 426, 661– 664 10.1038/nature02164 (doi:10.1038/nature02164) 14668864 · DOI · Paper page
  16. [21]Kell L. T. Pilling G. M. O'Brien C. A. 2005 Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62, 1483– 1491 10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.05.006 (doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.05.006) · DOI
  17. [22]Beaugrand G. Kirby R. R. 2010 Spatial changes in the sensitivity of Atlantic cod to climate-driven effects in the plankton. Clim. Res. 41, 15– 19 10.3354/cr00838 (doi:10.3354/cr00838) · DOI
  18. [23]Björnsson B. Steinarsson A. 2002 The food-unlimited growth rate of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 59, 494– 502 10.1139/f02-028 (doi:10.1139/f02-028) · DOI
  19. [24]Rindorf A. Lewy P. 2006 Warm, windy winters drive cod north and homing of spawners keeps them there. J. Appl. Ecol. 43, 445– 453 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01161.x (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01161.x) · DOI
  20. [25]Oosthuizen E. Daan N. 1974 Egg fecundity and maturity of North Sea cod, Gadus morhua. Neth. J. Sea Res. 8, 378– 397 10.1016/0077-7579(74)90006-4 (doi:10.1016/0077-7579(74)90006-4) · DOI
  21. [26]Kjesbu O. S. 1989 The spawning activity of cod, Gadus morhua L. J. Fish. Biol. 34, 195– 206 10.1111/j.1095-8649.1989.tb03302.x (doi:10.1111/j.1095-8649.1989.tb03302.x) · DOI
  22. [27]Myers R. A. Mertz G. Bishop C. A. 1993 Cod spawning in relation to physical and biological cycles of the northern North-west Atlantic. Fish. Oceanogr. 2, 154– 165 10.1111/j.1365-2419.1993.tb00131.x (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.1993.tb00131.x) · DOI
  23. [28]Hutchings J. A. Bishop T. D. McGregor-Shaw C. R. 1999 Spawning behaviour of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua: evidence of mate competition and mate choice in a broadcast spawner. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 56, 97– 104 10.1139/cjfas-56-1-97 (doi:10.1139/cjfas-56-1-97) · DOI
  24. [29]Brander K. M. 1994 The location and timing of cod spawning around the British Isles. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 51, 71– 89 10.1006/jmsc.1994.1007 (doi:10.1006/jmsc.1994.1007) · DOI
  25. [30]Helle K. Pennington M. Bogstad B. Ottersen G. 2002 Early environmental influences on growth of Arcto-Norwegian cod, Gadus morhua, from the 0-group to adults. Environ. Biol. Fish. 65, 341– 348 10.1023/A:1020581415071 (doi:10.1023/A:1020581415071) · DOI
  26. [32]Shepherd J. 1999 Extended survivors analysis: an improved method for the analysis of catch-at-age data and abundance indices. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 56, 584– 591 10.1006/jmsc.1999.0498 (doi:10.1006/jmsc.1999.0498) · DOI
  27. [33]Corten A. Lindley J. A. 2003 The use of CPR data in fisheries research. Prog. Oceanogr. 58, 285– 300 10.1016/j.pocean.2003.08.008 (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2003.08.008) · DOI
  28. [34]Hill R. C. Adkins L. C. 2001 Colinearity. In A companion to theoretical econometrics (ed. Baltagi B. H.), pp. 256– 278 Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  29. [37]Heath M. R. Lough R. G. 2007 A synthesis of large-scale patterns in the planktonic prey of larval and juvenile cod (Gadus morhua). Fish. Oceanogr. 16, 169– 185 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2006.00423.x (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.2006.00423.x) · DOI
  30. [38]Stige L. C. Ottersen G. Dalpadado P. Chan K.-S. Hjermann D. Ø. Lajus D. L. Yaragina N. A. Stenseth N. Chr. 2010 Direct and indirect climate forcing in a multi-species marine system. Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3411– 3420 10.1098/rspb.2010.0602 (doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0602) PMC2982221 20538646 · DOI
  31. [40]Planque B. Fromentin J.-M. 1996 Calanus and environment in the eastern North Atlantic. I. Spatial and temporal patterns of C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 134, 101– 109 10.3354/meps134101 (doi:10.3354/meps134101) · DOI
  32. [41]Beare D. J. Batten S. Edwards M. Reid D. G. 2002 Prevalence of boreal Atlantic, temperate Atlantic and neritic zooplankton in the North Sea between 1958 and 1998 in relation to temperature, salinity, stratification intensity and Atlantic inflow. J. Sea Res. 48, 29– 49 10.1016/S1385-1101(02)00131-4 (doi:10.1016/S1385-1101(02)00131-4) · DOI
  33. [42]Rowlands W. L. Dickey-Collas M. Geffen A. J. Nash R. D. M. 2008 Diet overlap and prey selection through metamorphosis in Irish Sea cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 65, 1297– 1306 10.1139/F08-041 (doi:10.1139/F08-041) · DOI
  34. [43]Houde E. D. 2008 Emerging from Hjort's shadow. J. Northw. Atl. Fish. Sci. 41, 53– 70 10.2960/J.v41.m634 (doi:10.2960/J.v41.m634) · DOI · Paper page
  35. [45]Duffy-Anderson J. T. Bailey K. M. Ciannelli L. 2002 Consequences of a superabundance of larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the Gulf of Alaska in 1981. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 243, 179– 190 10.3354/meps243179 (doi:10.3354/meps243179) · DOI
  36. [48]Pepin P. 1993 An appraisal of the size-dependent mortality hypothesis for larval fish: comparison of a multispecies study with an empirical review. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50, 2166– 2174 10.1139/f93-242 (doi:10.1139/f93-242) · DOI
  37. [49]Islam M. S. Ueno M. Yamashita Y. 2010 Growth-dependent survival mechanisms during the early life of a temperate seabass (Lateolabrax japonicus): field test of the ‘growth-mortality’ hypothesis. Fish. Oceanogr. 19, 230– 242 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2010.00539.x (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.2010.00539.x) · DOI
  38. [50]Rice J. A. Miller T. J. Rose K. A. Crowder L. B. Marschall E. A. Trebitz A. S. DeAngelis D. L. 1993 Growth rate variation and larval survival: inferences from an individual-based size-dependent predation model. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50, 133– 142 10.1139/f93-015 (doi:10.1139/f93-015) · DOI
  39. [52]Planque B. Fredou T. 1999 Temperature and the recruitment of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 56, 2069– 2077 10.1139/cjfas-56-11-2069 (doi:10.1139/cjfas-56-11-2069) · DOI
  40. [53]Dickson R. R. Pope J. G. Holden M. J. 1973 Environmental influence on the survival of North Sea cod. In The early life history of fish (ed. Blaxter J. H. S.), pp. 69– 80 Heidelberg, Germany: Springer
  41. [54]O'Brien C. M. Fox C. Planque B. Casey J. 2000 Climate variability and North Sea cod. Nature 404, 142 10.1038/35004654 (doi:10.1038/35004654) 10724155 · DOI
  42. [56]Clark R. A. Fox C. J. Viner D. Livermore M. 2003 North Sea cod and climate change: modeling the effects of temperature on population dynamics. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 1669– 1680 10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00685.x (doi:10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00685.x) · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Olsen, E. M., Ottersen, G., Llope, M., Chan, K.-S., Beaugrand, G., & Stenseth, N. C.
Affiliations
  • Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (NO)
  • University of Oslo (NO)
  • University of Iowa (US)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
Corresponding author
Stenseth, Nils Chr.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher
The Royal Society
Published
2010-09
Volume
278
Issue
1705
Pages
504-510
ISSN
  • 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
  • 0962-8452
  • 1471-2954
DOI
10.1098/rspb.2010.1465
PMC
PMC3025682
OpenAlex
W2110747406
Cited by
110
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 11
FWCI
6.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
  • DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Keywords
stock-recruitment relationship, North Sea cod, Gadus morhua, sea surface temperature, Continuous Plankton Recorder, Ricker model, Beverton-Holt model, fisheries management, cod stock recovery
MeSH terms
Animals, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Feeding Behavior, Fisheries, Models, Theoretical, North Sea, Population Dynamics, Zooplankton, Gadus morhua

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review