The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predictive systems ecology
Open accessAbstract
Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.
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Cites
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“Still we may have to accept that high process accuracy may not, in all cases, lead to high agreement between model and past observation [64], and that multiple process pathways can potentially give rise to similar output patterns, so that model selection may not be straightforward [65].”
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Cited by
The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
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Self-citationBiodiversity scenarios neglect future land‐use changes
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The trophodynamics of marine top predators: Current knowledge, recent advances and challenges
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Metadata
- Authors
- Evans, M. R., Bithell, M., Cornell, S. J., Dall, S. R. X., Díaz, S., Emmott, S., Ernande, B., Grimm, V., Hodgson, D. J., Lewis, S. L., Mace, G. M., Morecroft, M., Moustakas, A., Murphy, E., Newbold, T., Norris, K. J., Petchey, O., Smith, M., Travis, J. M. J., & Benton, T. G.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2013-11-22
- Volume
- 280
- Issue
- 1771
- Pages
- 20131452
- ISSN
- 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- OpenAlex
- W2130391013
- Cited by
- 172
- References
- 11
- FWCI
- 14.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Evans, M. R., Bithell, M., Cornell, S. J., Dall, S. R. X., Díaz, S., Emmott, S., Ernande, B., Grimm, V., Hodgson, D. J., Lewis, S. L., Mace, G. M., Morecroft, M., Moustakas, A., Murphy, E., Newbold, T., Norris, K. J., Petchey, O., Smith, M., Travis, J. M. J., & Benton, T. G. (2013). Predictive systems ecology. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1452
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
