CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 663Wildlife Ecology and ConservationIndigenous Studies and EcologyAnimal Ecology and Behavior Studies

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch

Open access
Post, Eric, Forchhammer, Mads C·2008·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2007.2207PMC PMC2606787
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4°C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1098/rstb.2007.2207

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • A likely mechanism for climate-induced reduction in migratory elk reproductive performance is a mismatch between vegetation green-up and the lactation period.

    “Therefore, one likely mechanism for a climateinduced reduction in the reproductive performance of migratory elk is a ''mismatch'' between vegetation greenup and the period of lactation (Post and Forchhammer 2008).”

    From Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd (2013) · cites this paper as Post and Forchhammer 2008

    The Introduction describes a potential mismatch between plant growth and the resource demands of lactation, and the Abstract reports reduced reproductive success associated with that mismatch. The study concerns migratory caribou in West Greenland, not elk, so it does not establish the proposed mechanism specifically for elk. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • In the only prior ungulate case known to the authors, recent Arctic warming advanced vegetation green-up more rapidly than female caribou advanced parturition, with negative effects on calf production.

    “In the only prior case for ungulates that we know of, recent arctic warming advanced vegetation green-up more rapidly than female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) advanced their parturition date, with negative effects on calf production (Post and Forchhammer 2008).”

    From Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd (2013) · cites this paper as Post and Forchhammer 2008

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 40

  1. Adams L.G, Singer F.J, Dale B.W. Caribou calf mortality in Denali National Park. J. Wildl. Manage. 1995;59:584–594. [Google Scholar]
  2. Albon S.D, Langvatn R. Plant phenology and the benefits of migration in a temperate ungulate. Oikos. 1992;65:502–513. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  3. Both C, Visser M. Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature. 2001;411:296–298. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  4. Both C, Bouwhuis S, Lessells C.M, Visser M. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature. 2006;441:81–83. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  5. Bøving P.S, Post E. Vigilance and foraging behaviour of female caribou in relation to predation risk. Rangifer. 1997;17:55–63. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  6. Caughley G. Wiley; London, UK: 1977. Analysis of vertebrate populations. [Google Scholar]
  7. Caughley G, Caughley J. Estimating median date of birth. J. Wildl. Manage. 1974;38:552–556. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  8. Clutton-Brock T.H. Princeton University Press; Princeton, NJ: 1991. The evolution of parental care. [Google Scholar]
  9. Durant J.M, Hjermann D.Ø, Anker-Nilssen T, Beaugrand G, Mysterud A, Pettorelli N, Stenseth N.C. Timing and abundance as key mechanisms affecting trophic interactions in variable environments. Ecol. Lett. 2005;8:952–958. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  10. Edwards M, Richardson A.J. Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature. 2004;430:881–884. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  11. Forchhammer M.C, Post E, Stenseth N.C, Boertmann D. Long-term responses in arctic ungulate dynamics to variation in climate and trophic processes. Popul. Ecol. 2002;44:113–120. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  12. Forchhammer M.C, Post E, Berg T.B.G, Høye T.T, Schmidt N.-M. Large-scale climatic fingerprint in local short-term plant and herbivore behaviour. Ecology. 2005;86:2644–2651. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  13. Gunn A, Skogland T. Responses of caribou and reindeer to global warming. In: Oechel W.C, Callaghan T, Gilmanov T, Holten J.I, Maxwell B, Molau U, Sveinbjörnsson B, editors. Global change and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Springer; New York, NY: 1997. pp. 189–200. [Google Scholar]
  14. Høye T.T, Post E, Meltofte H, Schmidt N.M, Forchhammer M.C. Rapid advancement of spring in the High Arctic. Curr. Biol. 2007;17:R449–R451. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2007.04.047. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  15. Klein D.R. Variation in quality of caribou and reindeer forage plants associated with season, plant part, and phenology. Rangifer, Special Issue. 1990;3:123–130. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  16. Leader-Williams N. Cambridge University Press; Cambridge, UK: 1988. Reindeer on South Georgia. [Google Scholar]
  17. Lincoln G.A, Short R.V. Seasonal breeding: nature's contraceptive. Rec. Prog. Horm. Res. 1980;36:1–52. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  18. Maxwell B. Recent climate patterns in the Arctic. In: Oechel W.C, Callaghan T, Gilmanov T, Holten J.I, Maxwell B, Molau U, Sveinbjörnsson B, editors. Global change and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Springer; New York, NY: 1997. pp. 21–46. [Google Scholar]
  19. Miller F.L, Gunn A. Catastrophic die-off of Peary caribou on the western Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canadian High Arctic. Arctic. 2003;56:381–390. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  20. Molau U. Phenology and reproductive success in arctic plants: susceptibility to climate change. In: Oechel W.C, Callaghan T, Gilmanov T, Holten T, Maxwell J.I, Molau U, Sveinbjörnsson B, editors. Global change and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Springer; New York, NY: 1997. pp. 153–170. [Google Scholar]
  21. Palmquist E, Lundberg P. Population extinctions in correlated environments. Oikos. 1998;83:359–367. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  22. Post E. Large-scale climate synchronizes timing of flowering by multiple species. Ecology. 2003a;84:277–281. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  23. Post E. Timing of reproduction in large mammals. In: Schwartz M.D, editor. Phenology: an integrative environmental science. Kluwer; New York, NY: 2003b. pp. 437–450. [Google Scholar]
  24. Post E. Large-scale spatial gradients in herbivore population dynamics. Ecology. 2005;86:2320–2328. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  25. Post E, Forchhammer M.C. Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA. 2004;101:9286–9290. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  26. Post E, Forchhammer M.C. Spatially synchronous population dynamics: an indicator of Pleistocene faunal response to large-scale environmental change in the Holocene. Quat. Int. 2006;151:99–105. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  27. Post E, Klein D.R. Caribou calf production and seasonal range quality during a population decline. J. Wildl. Manage. 1999;63:335–345. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  28. Post E, Forchhammer M.C, Stenseth N.C, Callaghan T.V. The timing of life-history events in a changing climate. Proc. R. Soc. B. 2001;268:15–23. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  29. Post E, Bøving P.S, Pedersen C, MacArthur M.A. Synchrony between caribou calving and plant phenology in depredated and non-depredated populations. Can. J. Zool. 2003;81:1709–1714. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  30. Post, E., Pedersen, C., Wilmers, C. C. & Forchhammer, M. C. In press. Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming. Ecology. [DOI] [PubMed]
  31. Rachlow J.L, Bowyer R.T. Interannual variation in timing and synchrony of parturition in Dall's sheep. J. Mamm. 1991;72:487–492. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  32. Robbins C.T. Academic Press; New York, NY: 1983. Wildlife feeding and nutrition. [Google Scholar]
  33. Skogland T. Paul Parey; Berlin, Germany: 1989. Comparative social organization of wild reindeer in relation to food, mates, and predator avoidance. [Google Scholar]
  34. Stevenson I.R, Bryant D.M. Climate change and constraints on breeding. Nature. 2000;406:366–367. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  35. Thing H. Feeding ecology of the West Greenland caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in the Sisimiut–Kangerlussuaq region. Dan. Rev. Game Biol. 1984;12:1–53. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  36. Visser M.E, Holleman L.J.M. Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology. Proc. R. Soc. B. 2001;268:289–294. doi: 10.2307/3545568. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  37. Visser M.E, Van Noordwijk A.J, Tinbergen J.M, Lessells C.M. Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major) Proc. R. Soc. B. 1998;265:1867–1870. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1998.0514. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  38. Walther G.-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee T.J.C, Fromentin J.-M, Guldberg O.H, Bairlein F. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature. 2002;416:389–395. doi: 10.1038/416389a. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  39. Whitten K.R, Garner G.W, Mauer F.J, Harris R.B. Productivity and early calf survival in the Porcupine Caribou Herd. J. Wildl. Manage. 1992;56:201–212. doi: 10.1038/416389a. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  40. Winder M, Schindler D.E. Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology. 2004;85:2100–2106. doi: 10.1038/416389a. [DOI] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Post, E., & Forchhammer, M. C.
Affiliations
  • Pennsylvania State University (US)
  • Aarhus University (DK)
Corresponding author
Post, Eric
ORCID
Venue
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher
The Royal Society
Published
2007-11-15
Volume
363
Issue
1501
Pages
2367-2373
ISSN
  • 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
  • 1471-2970
DOI
10.1098/rstb.2007.2207
PMC
PMC2606787
OpenAlex
W2142648698
Cited by
663
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 31 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 47 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 43 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 51 · 2013: 41 · 2012: 27
FWCI
12.14
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • National Geographic Society
  • University of Pennsylvania
  • Pennsylvania State University
  • Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Pennsylvania State University
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Indigenous Studies and Ecology
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
Keywords
trophic mismatch, climate change, reindeer, reproductive success, plant phenology, migratory herbivores, offspring mortality, spring temperature, forage crops, West Greenland
MeSH terms
Animals, Fertility, Greenland, Population Dynamics, Reindeer, Seasons, Temperature, Greenhouse Effect, Food Chain, Plant Development

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review