Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant
Open accessAbstract
Background: A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01, was identified in the UK in December-2020. Direct estimates of its potential to enhance transmission are limited. Methods: Nose and throat swabs from 28-September-2020 to 2-January-2021 in the UK’s nationally representative surveillance study were tested by RT-PCR for three genes (N, S and ORF1ab). Those positive only on ORF1ab+N, S-gene target failures (SGTF), are compatible with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. We investigated cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load), percentage of positives, population positivity and growth rates in SGTF vs non-SGTF positives. Results: 15,166(0.98%) of 1,553,687 swabs were PCR-positive, 8,545(56%) with three genes detected and 3,531(23%) SGTF. SGTF comprised an increasing, and triple-gene positives a decreasing, percentage of infections from late-November in most UK regions/countries, e.g. from 15% to 38% to 81% over 1.5 months in London. SGTF Ct values correspondingly declined substantially to similar levels to triple-gene positives. Population-level SGTF positivity remained low (<0.25%) in all regions/countries until late-November, when marked increases with and without self-reported symptoms occurred in southern England (to 1.5-3%), despite stable rates of non-SGTF cases. SGTF positivity rates increased on average 6% more rapidly than rates of non-SGTF positives (95% CI 4-9%) supporting addition rather than replacement with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. Excess growth rates for SGTF vs non-SGTF positives were similar in those up to high school age (5% (1-8%)) and older individuals (6% (4-9%)). Conclusions: Direct population-representative estimates show that the B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01 SARS-CoV-2 variant leads to higher infection rates, but does not seem particularly adapted to any age group.
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In this study, no higher viral load was observed in B.1.1.7 infections compared to other variants.
“We note that in this study we did not observe higher VL in B.1.1.7 infections as compared to other variants (see also ref. 28 )”
From Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2-mRNA-vaccinated individuals (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
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SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: the knowns and unknowns
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- Authors
- Walker, A. S., Vihta, K.-D., Gethings, O., Pritchard, E., Jones, J., House, T., Bell, I., Bell, J. I., Newton, J. N., Farrar, J., Diamond, I., Studley, R., Rourke, E., Hay, J., Hopkins, S., Crook, D., Peto, T., Matthews, P. C., Eyre, D. W., Stoesser, N., Pouwels, K. B., & COVID-19 Infection Survey team
- Affiliations
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (GB)
- Office for National Statistics (GB)
- Public Health England (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Wellcome Trust (GB)
- Queen Elizabeth University Hospital (GB)
- John Radcliffe Hospital (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Walker, A. Sarah
- ORCID
- Venue
- medRxiv
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2021-01-15
- OpenAlex
- W3119143601
- Cited by
- 58
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 1
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-nd
- Locations
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Scottish Government
- Llywodraeth Cymru
- National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR200915)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR200915)
- Department of Health and Social Care
- University of Oxford (NIHR200915)
- Public Health England (NIHR200915)
- Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
- Huo Family Foundation
- Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12023/22, COVID-19)
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (NIHR200915)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7 variant, S-gene target failure, viral load, cycle threshold, virus transmission, infection rate, growth rate, age-specific transmission, COVID-19 surveillance
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