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Disasters and Political Unrest: An Empirical Investigation
Abstract
A connection between disasters and political unrest has often been suggested, but only case studies/anecdotes have been offered as evidence. To test statistically for a disaster‐political unrest relationship, a causal model is developed that posits a direct and positive linkage between disaster severity and ensuing levels of political unrest. The model further specifies that increased levels of development, income equality, and regime repressiveness dampen post‐disaster political unrest. Using a time‐series between 1966 and 1980, Poisson regression results strongly corroborate the model. The exception is income equality, which has the opposite of the originally hypothesized effect.
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Citations
Cited by
The Logic of Political Violence
Besley, T., & Persson, T. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjr025 · Cited by 450
Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict
Slettebak, R. T. (2012) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343311425693 · Cited by 212
Climate Change and Civil Unrest: The Impact of Rapid-onset Disasters
Nardulli, P. F., Peyton, B., & Bajjalieh, J. (2015) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002713503809 · Cited by 55
From armed conflict to disaster vulnerability
Marktanner, M., Mienie, E., & Noiset, L. (2015) · Disaster Prevention and Management · doi:10.1108/dpm-04-2013-0077 · Cited by 29
Kikuta, K. (2019) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002717753919 · Cited by 28
Metadata
- Authors
- Drury, A. C., & Olson, R. S.
- Venue
- Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1998-09
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 153-161
- ISSN
- 0966-0879 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-5973
- OpenAlex
- W2161310893
- Cited by
- 184
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 2.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Drury, A. C., & Olson, R. S. (1998). Disasters and Political Unrest: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.00084
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
