Pretrial risk assessment instruments in practice: The role of judicial discretion in pretrial reform
Abstract
Research Summary: We explored the extent to which the implementation of a pretrial risk assessment instrument (PRAI) corresponded to changes in the pretrial processing of defendants using multiple administrative data sources from a large county in the southeastern United States. Our findings revealed little evidence of reductions in detention lengths or increases in the use of nonfinancial forms of release following the tool's adoption. This was largely attributable to the exercise of judicial discretion, as judges frequently departed from the tool's recommendation using alternatives that were more punitive and often included financial conditions—particularly for Black and Latino defendants. Furthermore, the exercise of discretion was linked to increased rates of pretrial failure. Policy Implications: PRAIs were adopted on a massive scale with the understanding that they are evidence‐based and geared toward efficiently and equitably reducing pretrial populations; however, we are lacking the evaluative work to determine their impacts. Our findings suggest that PRAIs may not only undermine reform efforts, but may worsen disparities, if communities fail to complete the up‐front work of discussing their expectations for pretrial decision making, including the conditions under which financial constraints may be justifiable.
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Two studies found being released on cash bail was associated with higher odds of FTA.
“For instance, two studies found being released on cash bail was associated with higher odds of FTA (Copp et al., 2022;Smith et al., 2020).”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al., 2022
White defendants were more likely to be granted ROR than Black and Latino defendants.
“The authors added that Black and Latino defendants were more likely to be assigned cash bail or assigned supervised release than White defendants who were more likely to be granted ROR.”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al. (2022)
Pretrial assessment instruments may be better at predicting FTA for White defendants than for Black and Latino defendants.
“Moreover, according to Copp et al. (2022), pretrial assessment instruments may be better at predicting FTA for White defendants than for Black and Latino defendants but may also be more likely to misclassify Black and Latino defendants as high-risk.”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al. (2022)
Pretrial assessment instruments may be more likely to misclassify Black and Latino defendants as high-risk.
“Moreover, according to Copp et al. (2022), pretrial assessment instruments may be better at predicting FTA for White defendants than for Black and Latino defendants but may also be more likely to misclassify Black and Latino defendants as high-risk.”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al. (2022)
Being released on cash bail has been linked to greater odds of re-arrest compared to being granted ROR.
“That is, being released on cash bail has been linked to greater odds of re-arrest compared to being granted ROR (Adams & Baumer, 2019;Copp et al., 2022;Zottola & Desmarais, 2022).”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al., 2022
Black and Latino defendants were more likely to be assigned cash bail or assigned supervised release than White defendants.
“The authors added that Black and Latino defendants were more likely to be assigned cash bail or assigned supervised release than White defendants who were more likely to be granted ROR.”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al. (2022)
Findings highlight how being assigned cash bail has been connected to higher re-arrest rates.
“Second, findings highlight how being assigned cash bail has been connected to higher re-arrest rates (e.g., Adams & Baumer, 2019;Copp et al., 2022;Zottola & Desmarais, 2022).”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al., 2022
Some scholars discovered cash bail-based releases were associated with higher odds of FTA.
“Meanwhile, some scholars discovered cash bail-based releases were associated with higher odds of FTA (Copp et al., 2022;Smith et al., 2020).”
From A Scoping Review of the Relationships Between Cash Bail, Failure to Appear, Re-Arrest, Health and Well-Being, Race, and Gender (2026) · cites this paper as Copp et al., 2022
Cites
Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art
Berk, R., Heidari, H., Jabbari, S., Kearns, M., & Roth, A. (2021) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124118782533 · Cited by 988 · see citing works
Dobbie, W., Goldin, J., & Yang, C. S. (2018) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20161503 · Cited by 564 · see citing works
Technologies of Crime Prediction: The Reception of Algorithms in Policing and Criminal Courts
Brayne, S., & Christin, A. (2021) · Social Problems · doi:10.1093/socpro/spaa004 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Assessing Risk Assessment in Action
Stevenson, M. T. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3016088 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?
Ouss, A., & Stevenson, M. (2023) · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20210349 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
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Scheadler, T. R., Radney, A., Smith, B. L., Munshi, A., & Cole, E. (2026) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-025-09860-5 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“For instance, two studies found being released on cash bail was associated with higher odds of FTA (Copp et al., 2022; Smith et al., 2020).”
Influential
- Authors
- Copp, J. E., Casey, W., Blomberg, T. G., & Pesta, G.
- Affiliations
- Florida State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Copp, Jennifer E.
- Venue
- Criminology & Public Policy
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2022-03-06
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 329-358
- ISSN
- 1538-6473 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-9133
- OpenAlex
- W4220894285
- Cited by
- 27
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 6.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Criminology & Public Policy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Law and Policy
- Keywords
- pretrial detention, judicial discretion, pretrial release, racial disparities, Black defendants
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