Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Following the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease named COVID-19, in Wuhan, China in late 2019, countries have implemented different interventions such as travel bans to slow the spread of this novel virus. This brief report evaluates the effect of travel bans imposed to prevent COVID-19 importation in the Australian context. METHODS: We developed a stochastic meta-population model to capture the global dynamics and spread of COVID-19. By adjusting our model to capture the travel bans imposed globally and in Australia, the predicted COVID-19 cases imported to Australia were evaluated in comparison to observed imported cases. RESULTS: Our modelling results closely aligned with observed cases in Australia and elsewhere. We observed a 79% reduction in COVID-19 importation and a delay of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia by approximately one month. Further projection of COVID-19 to May 2020 showed spread patterns depending on the basic reproduction number. CONCLUSION: Imposing the travel ban was effective in delaying widespread transmission of COVID-19. However, strengthening of the domestic control measures is needed to prevent Australia from becoming another epicentre. Implications for public health: This report has shown the importance of border closure to pandemic control.
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Other countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, have shown how early and effective lockdowns, combined with geographical isolation and travel restrictions, have kept transmission low throughout the study period.
“Other countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, have shown how early and effective lockdowns, combined with geographical isolation and travel restrictions, have kept transmission low throughout the study period.18, 55, 56”
From Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis (2022) · cites this paper as [55]
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- Authors
- Adekunle, A., Meehan, M., Rojas‐Alvarez, D., Trauer, J., & McBryde, E.
- Affiliations
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine (AU)
- Monash University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Adekunle, Adeshina
- Venue
- Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-08
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 257-259
- ISSN
- 1326-0200 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7405030
- OpenAlex
- W3045229813
- Cited by
- 100
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 7
- FWCI
- 3.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, border closures, imported infections, basic reproduction number, pandemic response, Australia
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Australia, Communicable Disease Control, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral, Travel, Coronavirus Infections, Basic Reproduction Number, Pandemics
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