Incremental Shifts, Strategic Orbits: The Evolution of EU Space Policy Through Gradual Security Linkages

Abstract

This article examines the evolution of European Union (EU) space policy through the lens of historical institutionalism, highlighting how security and defence considerations have been incrementally integrated into a domain originally framed as civilian and scientific. Rather than relying on sudden policy shifts driven by critical junctures, the EU has pursued a strategy of gradual transformation through layering and conversion—incrementally adding security dimensions to existing frameworks and repurposing institutions to support strategic objectives. The analysis reveals how external shocks, particularly Russia's invasions of Ukraine and shifting US security commitments, have acted as accelerants, reinforcing the EU's pursuit of space‐based strategic autonomy. Institutional constraints, including veto points and power dynamics among member states, have shaped the pace and scope of this evolution, necessitating a pragmatic approach to policy adaptation. The study contributes to broader debates on EU integration and institutional change, demonstrating that space policy exemplifies the Union's growing role as a geopolitical actor. The findings underscore the need for sustained coalition‐building, flexible policy adaptation, and investment in secure, autonomous space capabilities to ensure Europe's resilience in an increasingly contested global environment.