Mapping the Ideological Marketplace
Open accessAbstract
I develop a method to measure the ideology of candidates and contributors using campaign finance data. Combined with a data set of over 100 million contribution records from state and federal elections, the method estimates ideal points for an expansive range of political actors. The common pool of contributors who give across institutions and levels of politics makes it possible to recover a unified set of ideological measures for members of Congress, the president and executive branch, state legislators, governors, and other state officials, as well as the interest groups and individuals who make political donations. Since candidates fundraise regardless of incumbency status, the method estimates ideal points for both incumbents and nonincumbents. After establishing measure validity and addressing issues concerning strategic behavior, I present results for a variety of political actors and discuss several promising avenues of research made possible by the new measures.
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Larger campaign contributions indicate, in part, a stronger ideological match between the candidate and the donor.
“where larger contributions indicate, in part, a stronger ideological match between the candidate and the donor (Bonica 2014; McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016).”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Bonica 2014
There is a strong consensus among scholars of politics in the USA that liberal and conservative political elites have grown increasingly polarized over the past few decades.
“For example, there is a strong consensus among scholars of politics in the USA that liberal and conservative political elites (including members of Congress, party activists, donors and judicial appointees) have grown increasingly polarized over the past few decades27–34.”
From Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts (2022) · cites this paper as [30]
When analyses include voters, they do so at the expense of strong bridging assumptions or only for self-selected population groups.
“When the analysis also includes voters, it is done at the expense of strong”
From Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data (2015) · cites this paper as Bonica 2014
The assumption behind this model is similar in nature to that justifying how donations and roll call votes can be scaled onto a latent ideological dimension.
“Although obviously less costly than campaign contributions or votes in a legislature, the assumption behind this model is similar in nature to that justifying how donations and roll call votes can be scaled onto a latent ideological dimension (Poole and Rosenthal 2007; Bonica 2014).”
From Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data (2015) · cites this paper as Bonica 2014
The correlation between ideal points estimated using Twitter networks and contribution records is 0.80.
“The correlation between ideal points estimated using Twitter networks and contribution records (Bonica 2014) is ¼ 0:80.”
From Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data (2015) · cites this paper as Bonica 2014
Cites
A Scaling Model for Estimating Time‐Series Party Positions from Texts
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Monroe, B. L., Colaresi, M. P., & Quinn, K. M. (2008) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpn018 · Cited by 542 · see citing works
Lowe, W. (2008) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpn004 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
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Tweeting From Left to Right: Is Online Political Communication More Than an Echo Chamber?
Barberá, P., Jost, J. T., Nagler, J., Tucker, J. A., & Bonneau, R. (2015) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797615594620 · Cited by 1,472 · see citing works
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G., & Majlesi, K. (2020) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20170011 · Cited by 1,063 · see citing works
Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data
Barberá, P. (2015) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpu011 · Cited by 982 · see citing works
American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective
Gidron, N., Adams, J., & Horne, W. (2020) · doi:10.1017/9781108914123 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
Scientific communication in a post-truth society
Iyengar, S., & Massey, D. S. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1805868115 · Cited by 374 · see citing works
Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts
Jost, J. T., Baldassarri, D. S., & Druckman, J. N. (2022) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-022-00093-5 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
The Polarization of Contemporary American Politics
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Self-citationTheory In, Theory Out: The Uses of Social Theory in Machine Learning for Social Science
Radford, J., & Joseph, K. (2020) · Frontiers in Big Data · doi:10.3389/fdata.2020.00018 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Expertise, Networks, and Interpersonal Influence in Congress
Fong, C. (2020) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/705816 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Democratic Backsliding in the American States: The Case of Judicial Independence
Leonard, M. E. (2024) · Publius: The Journal of Federalism · doi:10.1093/publius/pjae009 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bonica, A.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bonica, Adam
- ORCID
- Bonica, Adam
- Venue
- American Journal of Political Science
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-10-30
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 367-386
- ISSN
- 0092-5853 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-5907
- OpenAlex
- W2330659357
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 47 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 81 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 76 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 55 · 2015: 41 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 229.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Journal of Political Science (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Political Influence and Corporate Strategies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Keywords
- political ideology measurement, campaign contributions, ideal points, ideological space, incumbency, strategic behavior, interest groups, members of Congress, state legislators, executive branch
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