Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure

Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen larger contractions in employment.

“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”

• cites Pierce and Schott 2016 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Acemoglu et al. 2016 sourceSupported

Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants.

“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”

• cites Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006 sourcePartly supported

  Section 5.1 (p. 15) finds that plant death is more likely in industries with greater exposure to imports from low-wage countries. Section 3 (p. 9) includes China among those countries, but the reported result is for the group, not for exposure to trade with China specifically. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

The concentrated impact of the China shock on specific industries and regions makes the economic consequences of trade acutely recognizable and therefore politically salient.

“The concentrated impact of the China shock on specific industries and regions makes the economic consequences of trade acutely recognizable and therefore politically salient (Margalit 2011; Di Tella and Rodrik 2019).”

• cites Margalit 2011 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Di Tella and Rodrik 2019 sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction links trade-related job losses to manufacturing, discusses China's trade shock, and says shocks to local labor markets can produce political reactions. It does not say that the China shock's concentration in particular industries and regions makes its consequences more recognizable or explains its political salience. The indexed passages provide section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

The study isolates the component of growth in US imports from China driven by export-supply growth in China, rather than US product-demand shocks, following the identification strategy in Autor et al. (2014) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).

“We isolate the component of growth in US imports from China that is driven by export-supply growth in China, rather than US product-demand shocks, following the identification strategy in Autor et al. (2014) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).”

• cites Autor et al. 2014 sourceSupported
• cites Acemoglu et al. 2016 sourceSupported

Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen lower incomes for affected workers.

“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”

• cites Autor et al. 2014 sourceSupported
• cites Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017 sourcePartly supported

  Section 4.2 reports that groups more exposed to the China shock experienced a relative decline in average earnings. The analysis measures income for groups of workers across all employment, not specifically workers in more-exposed industries; its manufacturing-worker income estimate was negative but not statistically significant. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Right-wing populist movements tend to arise during times of economic hardship.

“Because right-wing populist movements tend to arise during times of economic hardship (Hutchings and Valentino 2004; Inglehart and Norris 2016; Algan et al. 2017), a related explanation for the co-occurrence of heightened animus toward both foreign trading partners and foreign-born individuals stems from political opportunism.”

• cites Hutchings and Valentino 2004 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Inglehart and Norris 2016 sourcePartly supported

  The analysis of European populist voting (p. 28) finds that experience of unemployment was positively linked with populist support. But it describes the evidence across economic-insecurity measures as mixed and does not establish that right-wing populist movements tend to arise during periods of economic hardship. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Algan et al. 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right.

“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”

• cites Dippel et al. 2017 sourcePartly supported

  Section 4.2 says import exposure increased the extreme right’s vote share in the paper’s German data, and Section 3 identifies the trade studied as Germany’s trade with China and Eastern Europe. The cited clause also includes French regions, but this paper’s analysis does not cover France. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Malgouyres 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The loss of manufacturing jobs has represented a major contraction in high-wage earning opportunities, especially for less-educated males.

“The loss of manufacturing jobs has represented a major contraction in high-wage earning opportunities, especially for less-educated males (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”

• cites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019 sourcePartly supported

  The Employment and Earnings section (page unavailable) reports large declines in manufacturing employment and finds that manufacturing trade shocks reduced young men's employment and earnings, with the largest relative earnings losses among low earners. It does not establish that the lost jobs were high-wage opportunities or specifically show a greater contraction for less-educated men; low earnings are not the same as low education. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative.

“Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift).”

In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate, a rightward shift.

“In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift).”

Districts exposed to larger increases in import competition became significantly more likely to elect a GOP legislator in each election from 2010 to 2016.

“Districts exposed to larger increases in import competition became significantly more likely to elect a GOP legislator in each election from 2010 to 2016, while conservative rather than moderate Republicans absorbed these electoral gains.”

Rising trade exposure predicts a rise in the odds that majority White non-Hispanic areas elect GOP conservatives.

“we observe that rising trade exposure simultaneously predicts a rise in the odds that majority White non-Hispanic areas elect GOP conservatives and the odds that majority non-White areas elect liberal Democrats.”

Conservative rather than moderate Republicans absorbed the electoral gains from import competition exposure.

“Districts exposed to larger increases in import competition became significantly more likely to elect a GOP legislator in each election from 2010 to 2016, while conservative rather than moderate Republicans absorbed these electoral gains.”

Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat.

“Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift).”

Over 2004 to 2016, regions more exposed to import competition from China shifted consumption of TV news to the right-leaning Fox News Channel.

“Over 2004 to 2016, regions more exposed to import competition from China shifted consumption of TV news to the right-leaning Fox News Channel.”

Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections from 2000 through 2016, the paper finds strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the 2016 US presidential election.

“Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election.”

Over 2004 to 2016, regions more exposed to import competition from China increasingly drew campaign contributions from left-wing and right-wing donors but not from moderates.

“Simultaneously, they increasingly drew campaign contributions from left-wing and right-wing donors but not from moderates.”

Trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress, a rightward shift.

“Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift).”

For MSNBC, the ratings gains among White-headed households are slightly smaller than among non-White-headed households.

“For MSNBC, the ratings gains among White-headed households are slightly smaller than among non-White-headed households.”

Since 2004, the news viewing of the American public has modestly polarized.

“Since 2004, the news viewing of the American public has modestly polarized.”

Ratings for cable news spike during presidential election months, averaging 3.9 percent versus 2.7 percent in non-election months during the sample period.

“Ratings for cable news spike during presidential election months, averaging 3.9 percent versus 2.7 percent in non-election months during our sample period.”

The rightward shift in ideology evident in panel A of the table is due almost entirely to the preferences of non-Hispanic Whites.

“The rightward shift in ideology evident in panel A of the table is due almost entirely to the preferences of non-Hispanic Whites.”

In both Whites and Hispanics/non-Whites, the rise in the share of group members with strongly ideological affiliations (liberal or conservative) is fully offset by a reduction in those holding moderate views.

“In both cases, the rise in the share of group members with strongly ideological affiliations (liberal or conservative) is fully offset by a reduction in those holding moderate views.”

The fraction whose ideology was mostly or strongly liberal (Pew score of -3 to -10) rose more modestly from 32.6 percent to 35.4 percent over the 2004-2015 time frame.

“The fraction whose ideology was mostly or strongly liberal (Pew score of -3 to -10) rose more modestly from 32.6 percent to 35.4 percent over the 2004-2015 time frame.”

Over the 2000 to 2016 period, more trade-exposed counties saw larger gains in vote shares for the GOP presidential candidate.

“In Section V, we show that over the 2000 to 2016 period, more trade-exposed counties saw larger gains in vote shares for the GOP presidential candidate.”

Ratings during presidential election months have increased more substantially for right-leaning Fox News (+0.7 percentage points) and left-leaning MSNBC (+0.5 percentage points) than for less stridently partisan CNN (+0.3 percentage points).

“Ratings during presidential election months have increased more substantially for right-leaning Fox News ( + 0.7 percentage points) and left-leaning MSNBC ( + 0.5 percentage points) than for less stridently partisan CNN ( + 0.3 percentage points).”

In both majority White and majority non-White districts, candidates advantaged by adverse trade shocks appear to pull support from moderate Democrats.

“In both sets of districts, candidates advantaged by adverse trade shocks appear to pull support from moderate Democrats.”

Between 2004 and 2015, among Hispanics and non-Whites, the prevalence of liberal beliefs increased from 37.3 percent to 44.0 percent.

“Between 2004 and 2015, the share of Whites with conservative beliefs rose sharply from 22.2 percent to 35.0 percent, while among Hispanics and non-Whites, the prevalence of liberal beliefs increased from 37.3 percent to 44.0 percent.”

Over 2002 to 2016, the corporation share in contributions fell from 27.9 percent to 11.0 percent.

“the corporation share in contributions fell (from 27.9 percent to 11.0 percent)”

Between 2004 and 2015, the share of Whites with conservative beliefs rose sharply from 22.2 percent to 35.0 percent.

“Between 2004 and 2015, the share of Whites with conservative beliefs rose sharply from 22.2 percent to 35.0 percent, while among Hispanics and non-Whites, the prevalence of liberal beliefs increased from 37.3 percent to 44.0 percent.”

The fraction of participants whose ideology was centrist (Pew score of -2 to 2) fell from 48.7 percent in 2004 to 42.2 percent in 2011 and declined further to 37.6 percent in 2015.

“The fraction of participants whose ideology was centrist (Pew score of -2 to 2) fell from 48.7 percent in 2004 to 42.2 percent in 2011 and declined further to 37.6 percent in 2015.”

Rising trade exposure predicts a rise in the odds that majority non-White areas elect liberal Democrats.

“we observe that rising trade exposure simultaneously predicts a rise in the odds that majority White non-Hispanic areas elect GOP conservatives and the odds that majority non-White areas elect liberal Democrats.”

The analysis confirms across multiple outcome measures that the political response to a common trade shock varies by race.

“an implication that our analysis confirms across multiple outcome measures.”

The share of conservatives in contributions rose most strongly for noncorporate organizations.

“The share of conservatives in contributions rose most strongly for noncorporate organizations.”

Partisan polarization in the House of Representatives is evident in the contribution-weighted-average CF scores of Democratic and Republican congressional election winners from 1992 to 2016.

“We plot the central tendency of contribution-weighted-average CF scores for Democratic and Republican congressional election winners from 1992 to 2016”

Greater exposure to import competition reallocates market share to Fox News from MSNBC and CNN.

“while it does reallocate market share to Fox News from MSNBC and CNN.”

For 2002-2016, comparing more- versus less-trade-exposed districts, the more-exposed one would have 25.8 percent higher campaign contributions by right-leaning donors, equivalent to a 0.17 standard-deviation change.

“the now less-precise coefficient estimate of 52.6 ( t = 1.39 ) indicates that when comparing more-versus-less trade-exposed districts, the more-exposed one would have 25.8 percent ( 52.6 × 0.49 ) higher campaign contributions by right-leaning donors, which is equivalent to a 0.17 standard-deviation change in third-tercile contributions across districts over 2002 to 2016.”

Only the MSNBC impact reaches the 10 percent significance level (t = 1.70).

“although only the first impact reaches the 10 percent significance level ( t = 1.70 )”

Approximately two-fifths of the Fox News gain in market share in trade-impacted CZs was at the expense of CNN.

“while two-fifths ( -4.2/10.5 ) of the Fox gain was at the expense of CNN”

For 2002-2016, comparing more- versus less-trade-exposed districts, the more-exposed one would have 54.8 percent higher campaign contributions by liberal first-tercile donors, equivalent to a 0.37 standard-deviation change.

“the coefficient estimate of 111.8 ( t = 2.59 ) indicates that when comparing more-versus-less trade-exposed congressional districts, the more-exposed one would have 54.8 percent ( 111.8 × 0.49 ) higher campaign contributions by liberal first-tercile donors, equivalent to a 0.37 standard-deviation change in first-tercile contributions across districts over 2002 to 2016.”

For majority-minority districts, there is a positive and significant impact of trade exposure on contributions by liberal donors, precisely estimated for all end years from 2006 forward.

“There is a positive and significant impact of trade exposure on contributions by liberal donors, which is precisely estimated for all end years from 2006 forward.”

Districts with larger increases in trade exposure have larger increases in total campaign contributions in 2002-2010, significant at the 10 percent level (t = 1.71) without controls.

“districts with larger increases in trade exposure have larger increases in contributions, where this impact is significant at the 10 percent level ( t = 1.71 ).”

The Democratic party increased its vote share in trade-exposed districts that remained under safe control of the incumbent party.

“The results from columns 3 and 5 indicate that the Democratic party increased its vote share in trade-exposed districts that remained under safe control of the incumbent party.”

The Republican party gained in trade-exposed districts where both parties were competitive.

“Column 4 shows that the Republican party gained in trade-exposed districts where both parties were competitive.”

For majority-minority districts, impacts on contributions by moderate and conservative donors are small and imprecisely estimated in all years.

“Conversely, impacts on contributions by moderate and conservative donors are small and imprecisely estimated in all years.”

In column 5, the trade-shock impact on Fox News market share is 10.5 percentage points (t = 2.00).

“in column 5, the trade-shock impact rises to 10.5 percentage points ( t = 2.00 )”

The interquartile range of the increase in trade exposure across the full set of congressional districts in the analysis is 0.49 percentage points.

“This range is 0.49 percentage points across the full set of congressional districts in our analysis.”

Trade shocks have a positive impact on the Fox News market share.

“That trade shocks have a positive impact on the Fox News market share”

There is no apparent effect of trade shocks on households' overall consumption of TV news.

“These results indicate that there is no apparent effect of trade shocks on households' overall consumption of TV news, even though cable news viewership does rise in the aggregate across CZs during the sample period.”

Between 2010 and 2012, nearly all districts on the US mainland (425 out of 432) changed boundaries.

“Between 2010 and 2012, however, nearly all districts on the US mainland (425 out of 432) changed boundaries.”

Cross-country, cross-industry patterns of imports are strongly correlated with the United States, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.55 (Switzerland) to 0.96 (Australia).

“Moreover, cross-country, cross-industry patterns of imports are strongly correlated with the United States, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.55 (Switzerland) to 0.96 (Australia).”

Approximately three-fifths of the Fox News gain in market share in trade-impacted CZs was at the expense of MSNBC.

“approximately three-fifths ( -6.3/10.5 ) of the Fox News gain in market share in trade-impacted CZs was at the expense of MSNBC”

Impacts of trade exposure on increased contributions by conservative donors are small and imprecise in the first two time periods.

“Impacts of trade exposure on increased contributions by conservative donors are small and imprecise in the first two time periods.”

In each election following redistricting, districts with boundary changes experienced much greater levels of party churning than those whose geography remained unchanged.

“In each election following redistricting (in 2004, 2006, 2012, and 2016), districts with boundary changes experienced much greater levels of party churning than those whose geography remained unchanged.”

The impact of the trade shock on Fox News market shares for 2004-2008 (γ1 = 8.8, t = 2.1) and 2004-2016 (γ1 = 10.5, t = 2.7) is similar to that for 2004-2012 (γ1 = 10.5, t = 2.0).

“The impact of the trade shock on Fox News market shares for the 2004-2008 ( γ 1 = 8.8 , t = 2.1 ) and 2004-2016 ( γ 1 = 10.5 , t = 2.7 ) time periods are similar to that for 2004-2012 ( γ 1 = 10.5 , t = 2.0 )”

The Fox News market share gains from the trade shock tend to be larger and more precisely estimated for non-Hispanic Whites.

“these gains tend to be larger and more precisely estimated for non-Hispanic Whites.”

The paper detects no countervailing leftward shift among other groups.

“since we detect no countervailing leftward shift among other groups.”

Commuting zones with a 1 percentage-point larger increase in trade exposure had a 5.9 percentage-point larger Fox News market share in 2012 relative to 2004.

“The column 2 estimates indicate that CZs with a 1 percentage-point larger increase in trade exposure had a 5.9 percentage-point larger Fox News market share in 2012 relative to 2004”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.

Contributions from liberal and conservative donors, but not from moderate donors, differentially expand in more-trade-exposed districts.

“Contributions from liberal and conservative donors, but not from moderate donors, differentially expand in more-trade-exposed districts.”

The coefficient estimate of 5.27 (t = 2.72) implies that comparing districts at the seventy-fifth versus twenty-fifth percentiles of trade exposure, the more exposed district would have a 2.6 percentage-point larger increase in voter turnout.

“The coefficient estimate of 5.27 ( t = 2.72 ) implies that when comparing districts at the seventy-fifth versus twenty-fifth percentiles of trade exposure, the more exposed district would have a 2.6 percentage-point ( 5.27 × 0.49 ) larger increase in voter turnout”

With full controls, comparing districts at the seventy-fifth versus twenty-fifth percentiles of trade exposure, the more-exposed district would have an 18.2 percent larger increase in campaign contributions.

“the more-exposed district would have a 18.2 percent ( 37.2 × 0.49 ) larger increase in campaign contributions.”

Greater exposure to import competition triggers little change in the combined rating of the three cable news channels.

“Panel A of Table 2 shows that greater exposure to import competition triggers little change in the combined rating of the three cable news channels.”

With full controls, comparing more- versus less-trade-exposed districts, the more-exposed district would have approximately 35 percent larger increase in campaign contributions by left-leaning donors.

“the more-exposed district would have an approximately 35 percent ( 71.0 × 0.49 ) larger increase in campaign contributions by left-leaning donors.”

Districts more exposed to import competition became more likely to elect a GOP legislator, significant at the 5 percent level (t = 2.00).

“districts more exposed to import competition became more likely to elect a GOP legislator, where this impact is significant at the 5 percent level ( t = 2.00 ).”

On average, Chinese import penetration grew by 0.71 percentage points between 2002 and 2010.

“On average, Chinese import penetration grew by 0.71 percentage points between 2002 and 2010 (column 1 of online Appendix Table S2).”

In a parsimonious OLS regression controlling for commuting zone, age-race group, and year fixed effects only, the trade-shock coefficient for Fox News market share is positive and significant at the 10 percent level (t=1.92).

“In column 1, we estimate a parsimonious OLS regression that controls for CZ, age-race group, and year fixed effects only.The coefficient estimate is positive and significant at the 10 percent level ( t = 1.92 ).”

Voter turnout is higher in congressional districts subject to larger increases in trade exposure in their corresponding CZs.

“Voter turnout is higher in congressional districts subject to larger increases in trade exposure in their corresponding CZs.”

The lion's share of US county-district cells had a majority non-Hispanic White population in 2000: 3,491 of 3,772 cells, corresponding to 370 of 432 electoral districts (85.6 percent).

“The lion's share of US county-district cells had a majority non-Hispanic White population in that year: 3,491 of 3,772 cells, corresponding to 370 of the 432 electoral districts (85.6 percent) that are used in our analysis.”

Trade exposure has a modest negative impact on the Republican vote share, with a small (-1.1 percentage points per percentage-point change in trade exposure) and imprecise coefficient.

“Trade exposure has a modest negative impact on the Republican vote share, where the coefficient estimate is small ( -1.1 percentage points per percentage-point change in trade exposure) and imprecise.”

In all periods except 2002-2004, the impact of trade exposure on campaign contributions from moderate donors is positive but small and imprecisely estimated.

“In all periods except the first, 2002-2004, the impact is positive, but it is always small and imprecisely estimated.”

The trade shock appears to spur an increase in the Fox News market share for most age-race groups.

“While the trade shock appears to spur an increase in the Fox News market share for most age-race groups”

For 2004 to 2016, the trade-shock impacts on Fox News market share are two to three times larger for non-Hispanic Whites than for the corresponding Hispanic and non-White age groups.

“For the 2004 to 2016 period, these impacts are two to three times larger for non-Hispanic Whites than for the corresponding Hispanic and non-White age groups.”

Comparing CZs at the seventy-fifth versus twenty-fifth percentiles of trade exposure, the more exposed CZ would have a 5.2 percentage-point larger increase in the market share of Fox News.

“which implies that when comparing CZs at the seventy-fifth versus twenty-fifth percentiles of trade exposure, the former would have a 5.2 percentage-point ( 10.5 × 0.49 ) larger increase in the market share of Fox News.”

Congressional districts more exposed to import competition see no differential increase in campaign contributions from moderate donors at any time horizon.

“Congressional districts more exposed to import competition see no differential increase in campaign contributions from moderate donors at any time horizon.”

With full controls, the trade-shock impact on Fox News market share rises to 10.5 percentage points (t=2.00).

“Once we include the full set of controls for economic and political conditions in column 5, the trade-shock impact rises to 10.5 percentage points ( t = 2.00 )”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.

In the period 2002 to 2010, only four states implemented adjustments to their district boundaries.

“In the period of 2002 to 2010, only four states implemented adjustments to their district boundaries.”

For districts with a majority non-Hispanic White population, the polarization results in Figure 4 are preserved.

“For districts with a majority non-Hispanic White population in panel A, the polarization results in Figure 4 are preserved.”

Greater exposure to import competition yields no change in cable-news viewership overall.

“Greater exposure to import competition yields no change in cable-news viewership overall”

For all of the outcomes studied, rightward shifts in ideological affiliation and voting patterns are concentrated among or driven by non-Hispanic Whites, with small, zero, or countervailing effects evident among Hispanics and non-Whites.

“For all of the outcomes that we study, rightward shifts in ideological affiliation and voting patterns are concentrated among or driven by non-Hispanic Whites, with small, zero, or countervailing effects evident among Hispanics and non-Whites.”

During the sample period, imports from China were nearly five times as large as manufacturing exports from the United States to China.

“During our sample period, imports from China were nearly five times as large as manufacturing exports from the United States to China.”

The positive impact of trade exposure on GOP electoral odds from 2002-2010 onward stems entirely from majority non-Hispanic-White counties.

“The positive impact of trade exposure on GOP electoral odds from 2002-2010 onward stems entirely from majority non-Hispanic-White counties, shown in panel A of online Appendix Figure S5.”

Moderate politicians experience the largest decline in election probability in each period.

“Instead, moderate politicians experience the largest decline in election probability in each period.”

In counties with majority non-Hispanic White populations, trade exposure catalyzed movements toward GOP conservatives in 2002-2010 and all later periods.

“Panel A of Figure 7 shows that in counties with majority non-Hispanic White populations, trade exposure catalyzed movements toward GOP conservatives in 2002-2010 and all later periods.”

Comparing more- versus less-trade-exposed congressional districts, the more exposed district would have an 11.8 percentage-point larger increase in the probability of electing a Republican.

“the more exposed district would have a substantial 11.8 percentage-point ( 24.08 × 0.49 ) larger increase in the probability of electing a Republican.”

The contribution of trade shocks to GOP electoral odds did not manifest during the 2002 to 2008 period.

“we find that the contribution of trade shocks to GOP electoral odds did not manifest during the 2002 to 2008 period.”

• cites Feigenbaum and Hall (2015) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

These gains for liberal Democrats came largely at the expense of moderate Democrats, whose standardized loss in win probability is 21.1 percentage points (t=3.25).

“These gains came largely at the expense of moderate Democrats, whose standardized loss in win probability is 21.1 percentage points ( t = 3.25 ).”

For the full sample period 2002-2016, the standardized effect size is a 21.5 percentage-point (t=2.74) increase in the probability that a liberal Democrat wins office.

“For the full sample period of 2002-2016, the standardized effect size is a 21.5 percentage-point ( t = 2.74 ) increase in the probability that a liberal Democrat wins office.”

A 50.0 percent ceteris paribus reduction in the China trade shock between 2000-2014 would have tipped the narrow Republican voter majority in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, leading to an Electoral College victory for Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump.

“We calculate that a 50.0 percent ceteris paribus reduction in the China trade shock between 2000-2014 would have tipped the narrow Republican voter majority in the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, leading to an Electoral College victory for Hillary Clinton, instead of a victory for Donald Trump.”

In counties where less than one-half of the voting-age population is non-Hispanic White, liberal Democrats made strong gains in the probability of taking office for 2002-2010 and later periods.

“Focusing attention on the balance of counties where less than one-half of the voting-age population is non-Hispanic White (panel B), we find a largely complementary pattern: liberal Democrats made strong gains in these locations in the probability of taking office for 2002-2010 and later periods.”

The 2SLS estimates find a positive and marginally statistically significant impact (t=1.87) of rising Chinese import competition on the share of votes going to the GOP presidential candidate between 2000 and 2008.

“The 2SLS estimates reported in panel A of Table 5 find a positive and marginally statistically significant impact ( t = 1.87 ) of rising Chinese import competition on the share of votes going to the GOP presidential candidate between 2000 and 2008.”

The trade shock had a sizable positive but imprecisely measured impact on the electoral success of legislators connected to the Tea Party movement.

“An additional robustness check indicates that the trade shock had a sizable positive but imprecisely measured impact on the electoral success of legislators who are connected to the Tea Party movement.”

For 2002-2016, comparing a more- versus less-trade-exposed district, the former would have a 13.2 percentage-point higher likelihood of electing a conservative Republican.

“the former would have a 13.2 percentage-point ( 26.8 × 0.49 ) higher likelihood of electing a conservative Republican.”

In 2002-2010 and later periods, the relative losses of moderates within each party coincide with the overall shift in favor of the Republican party.

“In 2002-2010 and later periods, the relative losses of moderates within each party coincide with the overall shift in favor of the Republican party shown in panel A of Figure 5.”

The point estimate for the column 6 regression implies that the Republican two-party vote share rose by nearly a full percentage point for an interquartile range increase in import penetration (1.59 × 0.58 = 0.91).

“The point estimate for the column 6 regression, which includes full controls, implies that the Republican two-party vote share rose by nearly a full percentage point for an interquartile range increase in import penetration ( 1.59 × 0.58 = 0.91 ).”

In all time horizons from 2002-2010 onward, districts subject to greater import competition became substantially more likely to elect a GOP conservative.

“In all time horizons from 2002-2010 onward, districts subject to greater import competition became substantially more likely to elect a GOP conservative.”

According to untabulated regression results for 2002-2010, the standardized effect size of the import shock is a 9.0 percentage-point (t=1.50) increase in the likelihood of electing a Tea Party Republican.

“According to untabulated regression results for the 2002-2010 period, the standardized effect size of the import shock is a 9.0 percentage-point ( t = 1.50 ) increase in the likelihood of electing a Tea Party Republican.”

A CZ at the seventy-fifth percentile of import exposure has a substantially increased likelihood of electing a conservative Republican compared to a CZ at the twenty-fifth percentile: a 14.6 percentage-point increase based on DIME and a 17.5 percentage-point increase based on DW-Nominate.

“we find that a CZ at the seventy-fifth percentile of import exposure has a substantially increased likelihood of electing a conservative Republican compared to a CZ at the twenty-fifth percentile of exposure: a 14.6 percentage-point ( 29.88 × 0.49 ) increase in panel A based on DIME and a 17.5 percentage-point ( 35.76 × 0.49 ) increase in panel B based on DW-Nominate.”

Import competition has little effect on the party balance in Congress prior to 2010, as captured by null impacts on the change in probability that a GOP legislator is elected over 2002-2004, 2006, and 2008.

“import competition has little effect on the party balance in Congress prior to 2010, as captured by its null impacts on the change in probability that a GOP legislator is elected over the 2002 to 2004, 2006, and 2008 time periods.”

The trade-induced shift in party vote share persisted after 2008.

“Panel B indicates that the trade-induced shift in party vote share persisted after 2008.”

During the two most recent non-incumbent presidential elections, 2008 and 2016, trade shocks also appeared to modestly increase the vote share of the Republican candidate.

“During the two most recent non-incumbent presidential elections, 2008 and 2016, trade shocks also appeared to modestly increase the vote share of the Republican candidate.”

In the 2SLS specification with full controls (column 6), a one-unit increase in ΔCZ import penetration is associated with a 10.48 percentage point increase in Fox News market share by 2012 (SE 5.30).

“| ΔCZ import penetration × [t = 2012] | 2.86 | 5.87 | 5.09 | 7.31 | 8.32 | 10.48 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a 24.08 percentage point change in Republican win probability in Republican elected districts (SE 12.07).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a 6.10 percentage point change in Republican two-party vote share in competitive districts (SE 4.93).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a -6.24 percentage point change in Republican two-party vote share in solid Republican districts (SE 3.93).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a -0.95 percentage point change in Republican two-party vote share in solid Democratic districts (SE 1.80).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

For all races and ethnicities, between 2004 and 2015, the percent liberal increased by 2.8 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.30 | 2.8 | -11.1 | 8.3 |”

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a 5.27 percentage point increase in turnout among registered voters (SE 1.94).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

The addition of controls for initial demographic conditions and earlier presidential voting patterns has little further impact on the results.

“The addition of controls for initial demographic conditions and earlier presidential voting patterns has little further impact on the results.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

For all races and ethnicities, between 2004 and 2015, the percent conservative increased by 8.3 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.30 | 2.8 | -11.1 | 8.3 |”

For all races and ethnicities, between 2004 and 2015, the mean Pew ideology score increased by 0.30 points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.30 | 2.8 | -11.1 | 8.3 |”

For Hispanics and non-Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the percent conservative increased by 1.9 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | -0.32 | 6.7 | -8.6 | 1.9 |”

In both time periods and in all specifications, there is a highly imprecise relationship between trade shocks and the change in GOP vote shares.

“In both time periods and in all specifications, there is a highly imprecise relationship between trade shocks and the change in GOP vote shares.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

For non-Hispanic Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the percent moderate decreased by 13.0 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.71 | 0.1 | -13.0 | 12.9 |”

For all races and ethnicities, between 2004 and 2015, the percent moderate decreased by 11.1 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.30 | 2.8 | -11.1 | 8.3 |”

For Hispanics and non-Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the percent liberal increased by 6.7 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | -0.32 | 6.7 | -8.6 | 1.9 |”

For non-Hispanic Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the mean Pew ideology score increased by 0.71 points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.71 | 0.1 | -13.0 | 12.9 |”

For Hispanics and non-Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the mean Pew ideology score decreased by 0.32 points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | -0.32 | 6.7 | -8.6 | 1.9 |”

A one-unit increase in CZ import penetration is associated with a -1.08 percentage point change in Republican two-party vote share in all districts (SE 5.98).

“| Δ CZ import penetration | 5.27 | -1.08 | -0.95 | 6.10 | -6.24 | 24.08 |”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.

For non-Hispanic Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the percent conservative increased by 12.9 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.71 | 0.1 | -13.0 | 12.9 |”

For Hispanics and non-Whites, between 2004 and 2015, the percent moderate decreased by 8.6 percentage points.

“| Δ2004-2015 | -0.32 | 6.7 | -8.6 | 1.9 |”

The ideological divide in American politics is at an historic high.

“The ideological divide in American politics is at an historic high.”

• cites McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Bonica 2013Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The causal linkages between economic shocks and sustained increases in partisanship remain poorly understood.

“The causal linkages between economic shocks and sustained increases in partisanship remain poorly understood, however.”

• cites Mian, Sufi, and Trebbi 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Exposure to import shocks moved political sentiment away from the ideological center.

“These patterns suggest that exposure to import shocks moved political sentiment away from the ideological center.”

The appeal of studying the China shock is the abundant evidence linking foreign competition to a large and persistent decline in US manufacturing jobs.

“The appeal of studying the China shock is the abundant evidence linking foreign competition to a large and persistent decline in US manufacturing jobs.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: China's share of world manufacturing exports surged from 4.8 percent in 2000 to 15.1 percent in 2010.

Ranking congressional legislators on a liberal-conservative scale, based either on roll-call votes or the political orientation of their campaign contributors, reveals that the gap between Democrats and Republicans has been widening since the late 1970s.

“Ranking congressional legislators on a liberal-conservative scale, based either on their roll-call votes (McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016) or the political orientation of their campaign contributors (Bonica 2013), reveals that the gap between Democrats and Republicans has been widening since the late 1970s.”

• cites McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Bonica 2013Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Local labor markets home to more-exposed industries endured greater uptake of government transfers.

“The local labor markets that are home to more-exposed industries have endured greater job loss and larger increases in unemployment, nonparticipation in the labor force, uptake of government transfers (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a, 2019), and declines in tax revenues and housing prices (Feler and Senses 2015).”

• cites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a, 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The composition of campaign contributions became more polarized over 2002-2016.

“The composition of campaign contributions has thus become more polarized.”

EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establishment, euro-skeptic parties.

“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”

• cites Algan et al. 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Dehdari 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Dal Bó et al. 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Aggregating over the CF scores of donors to a particular candidate reveals the relative demand for that candidate's ideological position.

“aggregating over the CF scores of donors to a particular candidate reveals the relative demand for that candidate's ideological position.”

Aggregating over contributions to candidates in a given election reveals the relative demand for ideology by donors in that election.

“Aggregating over contributions to candidates in a given election reveals the relative demand for ideology by donors in that election”

One alternative explanation for the primary findings that the paper can reject is that they are merely a byproduct of a secular trend favoring conservatives.

“One alternative explanation for our primary findings that we can reject is that they are merely a byproduct of a secular trend favoring conservatives.”

Evidence indicates that the CF measure has high construct validity.

“Evidence indicates that the CF measure has high construct validity.”

• cites Bonica 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

It is the GOP that gains in net from trade shocks.

“Consequently, it is the GOP that gains in net from trade shocks.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Majority White non-Hispanic districts vastly outnumber majority-minority districts.

British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit.

“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”

• cites Colantone and Stanig 2018aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

That trade shocks appear to catalyze support for more-extreme actors in both parties, at the expense of moderates, indicates that the paper is not simply capturing a general rightward shift in US politics.

“That trade shocks appear to catalyze support for more-extreme actors in both parties, at the expense of moderates, indicates that we are not simply capturing a general rightward shift in US politics.”

Support for protectionism is pervasive in trade-exposed districts, irrespective of party.

“One resolution is found in the Feigenbaum and Hall (2015) result that support for protectionism is pervasive in trade-exposed districts, irrespective of party.”

• cites Feigenbaum and Hall 2015 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Greater trade exposure increases campaign intensity.

“then these results suggest that greater trade exposure increases campaign intensity.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Higher campaign donations indicate more fiercely contested campaigns.

China's falling prices, rising quality, and declining trade costs in surging sectors are root causes of its manufacturing export growth.

“That China made comparable gains in penetration by detailed sector across numerous countries in the same time interval suggests that China's falling prices, rising quality, and declining trade costs in these surging sectors are root causes of its manufacturing export growth.”

Larger campaign contributions indicate, in part, a stronger ideological match between the candidate and the donor.

“where larger contributions indicate, in part, a stronger ideological match between the candidate and the donor (Bonica 2014; McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016).”

• cites Bonica 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The much higher churning in districts with boundary changes is likely a consequence of redistricting, rather than an expression of rapidly changing political preferences among voters in these districts.

“The much higher churning in the former group of districts is likely a consequence of redistricting, rather than an expression of rapidly changing political preferences among voters in these districts.”

The study employs an instrumental-variables strategy to identify the causal effect of rising Chinese import exposure on local-level political outcomes.

“To identify the causal effect of rising Chinese import exposure on local-level political outcomes, we employ an instrumental-variables strategy that accounts for the potential endogeneity of US trade exposure.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.

In Autor, Dorn, and Hanson's (2013a) analysis of the labor market impact of increased import competition from China, instrumental variables regressions consistently indicate more adverse impacts of trade than OLS regressions.

“In the Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013a) analysis of the labor market impact of increased import competition from China, instrumental variables regressions consistently indicate more adverse impacts of trade than OLS regressions.”

• cites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013a)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

OLS estimates of the relationship between changes in imports from China and changes in US manufacturing employment may understate the impact of the pure supply shock component of rising Chinese import competition.

“In this case, OLS estimates of the relationship between changes in imports from China and changes in US manufacturing employment may understate the impact of the pure supply shock component of rising Chinese import competition, as both US employment and imports may rise simultaneously in the face of unobserved positive shocks to US product demand.”

Much of the growth in Chinese imports during the sample period stems from the rising competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers, which is a supply shock from the perspective of US producers.

“We exploit the fact that during our sample period, much of the growth in Chinese imports stems from the rising competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers, which is a supply shock from the perspective of US producers.”

There is clear polarization in political contributions in trade-exposed districts.

“Distinct from the media viewership data, we see clear polarization in political contributions in trade-exposed districts.”

Four-fifths of the long-run trade-shock-induced impact on Fox News was realized by 2008.

“indicating that four-fifths of the long-run trade-shock-induced impact on Fox News was realized by 2008”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The China trade shock had almost entirely unfolded by 2008.

The measured US import-exposure variable is instrumented with a non-US exposure variable constructed using industry-level growth of Chinese exports to other high-income markets.

“Specifically, we instrument the measured import-exposure variable ΔI P jτ cu with a non-US exposure variable ΔI P jτ co that is constructed using data on industry-level growth of Chinese exports to other high-income markets:”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.

Greater trade exposure induces a polarization in campaign contributions in the 2000s that is largely maintained through 2016.

“Overall, these results suggest that greater trade exposure induces a polarization in campaign contributions in the 2000s that is largely maintained through 2016.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The full impact of the 2002-2010 China trade shock was yet to be felt during 2002-2004 and 2002-2006, and China's reform-driven export boom was largely complete from 2002-2008 onward.

Trade exposure moves the ideological needle of media consumption rightward among non-minority households.

“In short, trade exposure moves the ideological needle of media consumption rightward among non-minority households.”

Modest overall vote share gains for the Democratic party mask gains for the Republican party in the electorally consequential subset of districts that were not firmly controlled by one party.

“the coefficient pattern suggests that modest overall vote share gains for the Democratic party masks gains for the Republican party in the electorally consequential subset of districts that were not firmly controlled by one party.”

Rightward shifts appear to be the overriding ideological and political response to trade exposure.

“This is one of several instances where rightward shifts appear to be the overriding ideological and political response to trade exposure.”

All eight comparison countries used for the instrumental variables analysis witnessed import growth from China in at least 343 of the 397 total set of four-digit SIC manufacturing industries.

“As documented by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016), all eight comparison countries used for the instrumental variables analysis witnessed import growth from China in at least 343 of the 397 total set of four-digit SIC manufacturing industries.”

• cites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Greater regional exposure to import competition caused an increase in the relative demand for television news with a conservative political slant.

“We interpret these results to mean that greater regional exposure to import competition caused an increase in the relative demand for television news with a conservative political slant.”

Greater trade exposure heightens polarization by increasing contributions among more-partisan donors on the left and right relative to moderate donors.

“These results provide our first evidence that greater trade exposure heightens polarization, specifically by increasing contributions among more-partisan donors on the left and right relative to contributions by moderate donors.”

Rising trade exposure increases the intensity of electoral campaigns, as seen in elevated campaign contributions and voter participation.

“These results accord with the findings of Table 3 suggesting that rising trade exposure increases the intensity of electoral campaigns, as seen in elevated campaign contributions and voter participation.”

To the extent that import shocks affect political beliefs via deteriorating labor market conditions, one would expect the greater impact of imports on ideology when moving from OLS to 2SLS.

“To the extent that import shocks affect political beliefs via deteriorating labor market conditions, one would expect the greater impact of imports on ideology when moving from OLS in column 1 to 2SLS in column 2.”

The transitional growth associated with China's post-Mao market-oriented reforms, on which the paper bases its identification strategy, was largely exhausted by the end of the 2010s.

“Although China's manufacturing exports continued to grow after 2010, the transitional growth associated with China's post-Mao market-oriented reforms, on which we base our identification strategy, was largely exhausted by the end of that decade (Naughton 2018; Lardy 2019).”

• cites Naughton 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Lardy 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The results are robust to the choice of ideology measure: similar impacts of import competition on the electoral success of moderate and non-moderate Democrats and Republicans over 2002-2010 are found whether classified using CF or DW-Nominate scores.

“In Appendix Table A2, we show similar impacts of import competition on the electoral success of moderate and non-moderate Democrats and Republicans over the 2002-2010 period, whether classified using CF or DW-Nominate scores.”

The combination of these features enhances the salience of the labor-market impacts of trade and therefore their political resonance.

“The combination of these features enhances the salience of the labor-market impacts of trade and therefore their political resonance (Margalit 2011).”

• cites Margalit 2011 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The paper's instrument, by construction, has less predictive power for US exports to China.

“This focus is dictated by the fact that our instrument, by construction, has less predictive power for US exports to China.”

Rising import penetration from low-wage countries disproportionately bears on local labor markets that historically specialized in labor-intensive manufacturing.

“rising import penetration from low-wage countries disproportionately bears on local labor markets that historically specialized in labor-intensive manufacturing (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013b).”

• cites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013bNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The imputations for winners with no contributions do not materially affect the results.

“These imputations do not materially affect our results.”

The net electoral gains of the GOP realized in trade-impacted districts, often with narrow margins of victory, are likely built on socially divisive rather than centrist campaign platforms.

“This set of results suggests, though does not prove, that the net electoral gains of the GOP realized in trade-impacted districts, often with narrow margins of victory, are likely built on socially divisive rather than centrist campaign platforms.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Wedge issues in the United States divide voters along racial and ethnic lines.

What may distinguish trade in terms of its impact on political outcomes is that its disruptive effects are so concentrated demographically and geographically.

“What may distinguish trade in terms of its impact on political outcomes is that its disruptive effects are so concentrated demographically and geographically.”

The rightward shifts detected are concentrated among non-Hispanic Whites.

“As with earlier results on news viewership and partisan political contributions, the rightward shifts we detect are concentrated among non-Hispanic Whites.”

Trade shocks do not cause a monotone shift toward the political right.

“The pattern of results indicates that trade shocks do not cause a monotone shift toward the political right.”

Because each congressional district chooses among a disparate set of candidates, votes cast for a candidate from the same political party in different districts are not necessarily votes cast in favor of a legislator with the same ideological position relative to local alternatives.

“Because each congressional district chooses among a disparate set of candidates, votes cast for a candidate from the same political party in different districts are not necessarily votes cast in favor of a legislator with the same ideological position relative to local alternatives.”

The Republican party may have improved its electoral results in competitive districts where a few additional percentage points of vote share can prove decisive for victory.

“Column 4 of Table 4 offers suggestive evidence that the Republican party may have improved its electoral results in the competitive districts where a few additional percentage points of the vote share can prove decisive for victory.”

Moderate Democrats account for the bulk of the losses from conservative GOP gains from 2010 onward.

“Both of these developments leave moderate Democrats as the group that accounts for the bulk of the losses from conservative GOP gains from 2010 onward.”