Can zoning reform reduce housing costs? Evidence from rents in Auckland
Open accessAbstract
Zoning reform is increasingly advocated to redress unaffordable housing, but few real‐world examples demonstrate its efficacy. However, Auckland recently upzoned approximately three‐quarters of its residential land, precipitating a housing construction boom. We investigate whether the reform reduced housing costs, adopting a synthetic control method to estimate rental prices in Auckland under the counterfactual of no zoning change. Eight years after the reform, the synthetic control under our preferred empirical specification implies that rents decreased by 23% due to the reform. These findings are robust across a range of specifications and support the proposition that widespread upzoning can enhance housing affordability.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746 · Cited by 5,513 · see citing works
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2014) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12116 · Cited by 2,375 · see citing works
Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects
Abadie, A. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20191450 · Cited by 1,486 · see citing works
The CMA Evolution Strategy: A TutorialPreprint
Hansen, N. (2016) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1604.00772 · Cited by 1,121 · see citing works
Favilukis, J., Ludvigson, S. C., & Nieuwerburgh, S. V. (2016) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/689606 · Cited by 541 · see citing works
Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach
Billmeier, A., & Nannicini, T. (2012) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00324 · Cited by 508 · see citing works
The global urban housing affordability crisis
Wetzstein, S. (2017) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/0042098017711649 · Cited by 468 · see citing works
The Augmented Synthetic Control Method
Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1929245 · Cited by 462 · see citing works
Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis
Doudchenko, N., & Imbens, G. (2016) · doi:10.3386/w22791 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
A Reconsideration of Hedonic Price Indexes with an Application to PC’s
Pakes, A. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803322655455 · Cited by 409 · see citing works
Gyourko, J., & Molloy, R. S. (2015) · Handbook of regional and urban economics · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-59531-7.00019-3 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
Kaul, A., Klößner, S., Pfeifer, G., & Schieler, M. (2021) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1080/07350015.2021.1930012 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
Rodríguez‐Pose, A., & Storper, M. (2019) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/0042098019859458 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Clapp, J. M., & Giaccotto, C. (1992) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475209 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES FOR RESIDENTIAL HOUSING: A SURVEY, EVALUATION AND TAXONOMY
Hill, R. (2012) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2012.00731.x · Cited by 194 · see citing works
The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez: A synthetic control analysis
GRIER, K. B., & Maynard, N. (2016) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2015.12.011 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents
Sommer, K., Sullivan, P., & Verbrugge, R. J. (2013) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.04.017 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Upzoning chicago: impacts of a zoning reform on property values and housing construction:
Freemark, Y. (2020) · Urban Affairs Review · doi:10.1177/1078087418824672 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Evolution strategies for continuous optimization: A survey of the state-of-the-art
Li, Z., Lin, X., Zhang, Q., & Liu, H. (2020) · Swarm and Evolutionary Computation · doi:10.1016/j.swevo.2020.100694 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Jones, D., & Marinescu, I. (2022) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.20190299 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland
Greenaway-McGrevy, R., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2023) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2023.103555 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Self-citationMarket Shifts in the Sharing Economy: The Impact of Airbnb on Housing Rentals
Li, H., Kim, Y., & Srinivasan, K. (2022) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.4288 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
The effect of upzoning on house prices and redevelopment premiums in Auckland, New Zealand
Greenaway‐McGrevy, R., Pacheco, G. A., & Sorensen, K. (2020) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/0042098020940602 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Self-citationUpzoning and Single-Family Housing Prices
Kuhlmann, D. (2021) · Journal of the American Planning Association · doi:10.1080/01944363.2020.1852101 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
The Difference Between Hedonic Imputation Indexes and Time Dummy Hedonic Indexes
Silver, M. S., & Heravi, S. M. (2006) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1198/073500106000000486 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices
OECD, Eurostat, Fund, I. M., Bank, T. W., & United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2013) · OECD eBooks · doi:10.1787/9789264197183-en · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Stacy, C. P., Davis, C., Freemark, Y. S., Lo, L., MacDonald, G., Zheng, V., & Pendall, R. (2023) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/00420980231159500 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Producing Affordable Housing in Rising Markets: What Works?Preprint
Freeman, L., & Schuetz, J. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2851175 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and StrategiesPreprint
Sáiz, A. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4402329 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Davis, J. (2021) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105347 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Dong, H. (2021) · Journal of Planning Education and Research · doi:10.1177/0739456x21990728 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
Anagol, S., Ferreira, F. V., & Rexer, J. M. (2021) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.20230542 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Making housing affordable? The local effects of relaxing land-use regulation
Büchler, S., & Lutz, E. C. (2024) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2024.103689 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Evaluating the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development
Greenaway‐McGrevy, R. (2024) · Regional Science and Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104062 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationThe heterogeneous impacts of widespread upzoning: Lessons from Auckland, New Zealand
Cheung, K. S., Monkkonen, P., & Yiu, C. Y. (2024) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/00420980231190281 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Price effects of the special housing areas in Auckland
Fernández, M. A., Sánchez, G. E., & Bucaram, S. J. (2019) · New Zealand Economic Papers · doi:10.1080/00779954.2019.1588916 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
House prices and affordability
Greenaway-McGrevy, R., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2021) · New Zealand Economic Papers · doi:10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationRehm, M. (2009) · International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis · doi:10.1108/17538270910939565 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Upzoning and gentrification: Heterogeneous impacts of neighbourhood-level upzoning in New York City
Kim, M., & Lee, H. (2024) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/00420980241298199 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Can zoning reform change urban development patterns? Evidence from Auckland
Greenaway-McGrevy, R., & Jones, J. A. (2025) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/00420980241311521 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationGoing it alone: The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Lower Hutt
Maltman, M., & Greenaway‐McGrevy, R. (2024) · Journal of Housing Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102032 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationUsing Council Valuation Records to Estimate Auckland’s housing stock
Jones, J. A., Greenaway‐McGrevy, R., & Crow, C. (2025) · Policy Quarterly · doi:10.26686/pq.v21i1.9727 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationZoning reform and state-developed housing in Auckland
Greenaway-McGrevy, R. (2025) · New Zealand Economic Papers · doi:10.1080/00779954.2025.2468710 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationUpzoning and redevelopment: The details matter
von Bergmann, J., Davidoff, T., Lauster, N. T., & Somerville, T. (2025) · Journal of Housing Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102078 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
In the zone: the effects of 2002–2010 upzoning on urban life in New York City
Lian, J. A., Khare, A., & Vernooy, K. (2023) · Frontiers in Sustainable Cities · doi:10.3389/frsc.2023.1149753 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Rentals for Housing: A Property Fixed-Effects Estimator of Inflation from Administrative Data
Bentley, A. (2022) · Journal of Official Statistics · doi:10.2478/jos-2022-0009 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Measuring the cost of land inputs to housing construction
Cooper, G., Greenaway‐McGrevy, R., & Jones, J. A. (2025) · New Zealand Economic Papers · doi:10.1080/00779954.2025.2536257 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationCan zoning reform increase housing construction? Evidence from Auckland
Greenaway‐McGrevy, R. (2026) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107592 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Augmented Synthetic Control Method
Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J. (2021) · doi:10.3386/w28885
Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
Anagol, S., Ferreira, F., & Rexer, J. (2021) · doi:10.3386/w29440
Gray, M. N., & Millsap, A. (2020) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3659870
The Effects of Minimum-Lot-Size Reform on Houston Land Values
Hamilton, E. (2024) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4705340
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Been V., 2018, City NIMBYs, Journal of Land Use & Environmental Law, 33, 217
- Glaeser E. L., 2003, The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability, Economic Policy Review, 9, 21
- Greenaway‐McGrevy R., 2026, ECIN replication package for “Can zoning reform reduce housing costs? Evidence from rents in Auckland”
- Hamilton E., 2021, Inclusionary zoning and housing market outcomes, Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 23, 161
- Hamilton E., 2021, Regulation and economic opportunity, 186
- Huennekens J. W., 2023, Learning from land use reforms: the case of Ramapo, New York, Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 25, 225
- Johnson A., 2018, A stocktake of New Zealand’s housing
- Krimmel J., 2023, Upzoning with strings attached evidence from Seattle’s affordable housing mandate, Cityscape, 25, 257
- Maré D. C., 2012, Residential sorting across Auckland neighbourhoods, New Zealand Population Review, 38, 23
- Paton D., 2013, Preparing for disaster: building household and community capacity
- Schill M. H., 2005, Regulations and housing development: what we know, Cityscape, 8, 5
- Wegmann J., 2023, Here come the tall skinny houses: assessing single‐family Houston, 2007 – 2020, Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 25, 171
Cited by
Still being checked.
- Authors
- Greenaway‐McGrevy, R., & So, Y.
- Affiliations
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Venue
- Economic Inquiry
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2026-07-11
- Volume
- 64
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1393-1433
- ISSN
- 0043-3640 (ISSN-L)
- 0095-2583
- 1465-7295
- OpenAlex
- W7168104775
- Semantic Scholar
- e6bf3a4ff9b5ad06a356e08667f27af855e518af
- Cited by
- 0
- References
- 44
- FWCI
- 0.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Economic Inquiry (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Royal Society Te Apārangi (UOA2013)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Housing Market and Economics
- Social Sciences › Urban Studies › Urban and Rural Development Challenges
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
- Keywords
- zoning reform, upzoning, housing affordability, rental prices, housing costs, Auckland, residential land use, housing construction, counterfactual analysis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
