The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species
Abstract
A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.
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Cites
Phylogenies and the Comparative Method
Felsenstein, J. (1985) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/284325 · Cited by 9,793
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Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
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Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals
Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E., & Dulvy, N. K. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1539 · Cited by 1,585
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Cited by
Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records
Kidwell, S. M. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1403660112 · Cited by 169
Model adequacy and the macroevolution of angiosperm functional traits
Pennell, M. W., FitzJohn, R. G., Cornwell, W. K., & Harmon, L. J. (2015) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/682022 · Cited by 165
Pulsed evolution shaped modern vertebrate body sizes
Landis, M. J., & Schraiber, J. G. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1710920114 · Cited by 118
McCormack, C. G., Born, W., Irvine, P. J., Achterberg, E. P., Amano, T., Ardron, J., Foster, P. N., Gattuso, J.-P., Hawkins, S. J., Hendy, E., et al. (2016) · Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences · doi:10.1080/1943815x.2016.1159578 · Cited by 62
Integrative taxonomy clarifies the evolution of a cryptic primate clade
van Elst, T., Sgarlata, G. M., Schüßler, D., Tiley, G. P., Poelstra, J. W., Scheumann, M., Blanco, M. B., Aleixo-Pais, I. G., Rina Evasoa, M., Ganzhorn, J. U., et al. (2024) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-024-02547-w · Cited by 37
Metadata
- Authors
- Quintero, I., & Wiens, J. J.
- Venue
- Ecology Letters
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-06-26
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1095-1103
- ISSN
- 1461-023X (ISSN-L)
- 1461-0248
- OpenAlex
- W2150634102
- Cited by
- 342
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 17.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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