The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture
Open accessAbstract
There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
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Nonparametric Tests Against Trend
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Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth
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Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113 · Cited by 3,073
Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8537 · Cited by 2,200 · cited 5×
“This is an essential consideration given concern that, due to climate change, fires are becoming more frequent because of prolonged fire seasons, and drier fuels (Jolly et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationAn Enhanced Contextual Fire Detection Algorithm for MODIS
Giglio, L., Descloitres, J., Justice, C. O., & Kaufman, Y. J. (2003) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00184-6 · Cited by 1,729
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The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product
Giglio, L., Boschetti, L., Roy, D. P., Humber, M. L., & Justice, C. O. (2018) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2018.08.005 · Cited by 1,286
Cited by
Campbell, M. J., Gannon, B. M., Rahman, O., Stratton, R. D., & Dennison, P. E. (2024) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire7080292 · Cited by 5
Metadata
- Authors
- Ellis, T. M., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Jain, P., Flannigan, M. D., & Williamson, G. J.
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021-12-02
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1544-1559
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W3213800655
- Cited by
- 346
- References
- 65
- FWCI
- 16.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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