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Cited by 5Facility Location and Emergency ManagementOccupational Health and PerformanceEvacuation and Crowd Dynamics

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 44 of the 45 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 30 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Wildland Firefighter Estimated Ground Evacuation Time Modeling to Support Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Open access
Campbell, Michael J., Gannon, Benjamin M., Rahman, Obaidur, Stratton, Richard D., Dennison, Philip E.·2024·Fire
DOI 10.3390/fire7080292
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Abstract

Wildland firefighters often work in remote settings with multiple hazards that can cause life-threatening injuries. Prompt access to medical care is key to reducing injury consequences. For the last decade, a spatial model of wildland firefighter estimated ground evacuation time (GET) has been used when developing operational response strategies in the contiguous United States (CONUS). This paper describes our updated and improved GET model and the resulting decision support spatial data representing the estimated time to evacuate to a hospital from anywhere within the CONUS using ground transportation only. The new GET model leverages updated input datasets and has improved off-road travel time estimation methods that incorporate the latest science on how terrain slope influences pedestrian travel rates. It also accounts for a novel set of landscape variables not previously considered, including minor roads and trails, streams, woody debris, cliffs, and an improved handling of shrub cover. When compared to a set of recent safety incidents, the reported evacuation times were correlated with the model predictions. The spatial patterns of GET from the new model are similar to the old product; however, we found that, on average, the new version of GET yields slightly faster evacuation times, but with regional variation in this trend.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper introduces GET v2, an updated CONUS-wide, 30 m spatial model of wildland firefighter estimated ground evacuation time to hospitals using ground transportation only. Compared with GET v1 and nine incident reports, GET v2 generally estimates slightly faster evacuation times but remains broadly similar and roughly aligned with reported evacuation times.

Key findings

  • GET v2 is based on 5,136 CONUS hospitals after filtering HIFLD facilities to “OPEN” and either “GENERAL ACUTE CARE” or “CRITICAL ACCESS.”
  • CONUS-wide, GET v2 estimates lower overall evacuation times than GET v1: 70.7% of the study area fell in the lowest time class in GET v2 versus 66.3% in GET v1. Per-pixel, 88.42% of pixels had the same class, 2.47% increased, and 9.09% decreased.
  • Against nine ground evacuation incidents from 2007–2016, median GET v2 evacuation times captured the prevailing trend in reported times (R² = 0.87, %RMSE = 78). The longest reported evacuation was 6.5 h during the 2016 Coyote fire in Texas, where GET v2 underestimated the time.
  • New off-road costs include slope >45° and large water bodies as barriers; tree cover at 4× cost; shrub cover from 1× to 4× depending on cover, with equivalence to GET v1 at about 33% shrub cover; minor roads/trails at 1×; slash/debris at 2× or 5×; and perennial streams at 5×.

Methods

  • GET v2 uses least-cost path modeling in Esri ArcGIS Pro 3.2.1. A 30 m cost surface combines on-road travel from the 2020 HERE roads network and off-road travel costs; travel time is accumulated outward from each hospital up to six hours, then the per-pixel minimum across all 5,136 hospital rasters is taken.
  • Off-road costs use LANDFIRE 2020 Existing Vegetation Type and Existing Vegetation Cover, LANDFIRE slope, LANDFIRE FBFM40 fuel models, USGS NHDPlus HR perennial streams, and USGS National Transportation Dataset minor roads/trails. The slope–travel rate function was made symmetric from Campbell et al. (2022) crowdsourced GPS hiking data, with expert stakeholder input where empirical travel-rate data were lacking.
  • Comparisons with GET v1 used CONUS and Geographic Area time-class histograms, a per-pixel class-change matrix, and 10 km aggregated change maps. Validation used nine spatially explicit ground evacuation incidents from the Wildland Fire Histomap since 2000, with incident-location uncertainty polygons and ordinary least squares regression between median GET v2 times and reported evacuation times.

Limitations

  • The paper states that input datasets have inherent spatial and thematic uncertainty that propagates through the workflow, and that the nine-incident evaluation is too limited to quantify uncertainty across a wider range of environments.
  • The paper states that many off-road impedance factors rely on expert opinion and author experience because empirical studies of landscape effects on walking speed are lacking, and the specific multiplicative cost factors have not been independently validated.
  • The paper states that GET cannot account for land ownership, fences, gates, uncooperative landowners, dynamic traffic or stoplights, patient assessment/care/packaging/transfer, litter carries, off-road vehicle use, or suboptimal paths; it covers only the travel portion of evacuation and assumes typical walking pace. It also notes that the 2010 NAVTEQ roads data behind GET v1 are not publicly available, preventing direct road-dataset comparison.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3390/fire7080292

Cites

44 of 44 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 30 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingreasoning

    Three out of the four variables have simple, one-directional effects on travel cost.

    “Three out of the four variables have simple, one-directional effects on travel cost.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    After filtering for STATUS and TYPE criteria, there were 5136 hospitals in CONUS that served as the basis of GET v2.

    “After filtering for these two criteria, we ended up with 5136 hospitals in CONUS that served as the basis of GET v2 (Figure 2A).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    The spatial patterns of GET from GET v2 are similar to GET v1.

    “The spatial patterns of GET from the new model are similar to the old product”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Minor roads/trails are more highly concentrated in rural areas, especially federal USDA Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management lands.

    “Minor roads/trails are more highly concentrated in rural areas, especially federal USDA Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management lands (Figure 6B).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    At a CONUS-wide level, the spatial distributions of estimated evacuation times from GET v1 and GET v2 are similar.

    “At a CONUS-wide level, the spatial distributions of the estimated evacuation times from GET v1 and GET v2 are similar (Figure 8).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 34
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 22
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingown data

    Nine incidents met the selection criteria for evaluating GET v2.

    “This yielded nine incidents.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Slash and debris classes represent a relatively small proportion of the US, but several regions have a high cover of the selected fuel models that see meaningful impacts on GET v2.

    “All told, these slash and debris classes represent a relatively small proportion of the US, but there are several regions with a high cover of the selected fuel models that see meaningful impacts on GET v2 (Figure 6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Post-fire landscapes with fallen trees, forests affected by insect/disease/windthrow, post-logging slash areas, and forests with high coarse woody debris loads are very challenging and slow to walk through.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    On average, GET v2 estimates lower overall evacuation times, with a greater proportion of the study area falling into the lowest time class (70.7% in GET v2 vs. 66.3% in GET v1).

    “On average, GET v2 estimates lower overall evacuation times, with a greater proportion of the study area falling into the lowest time class (70.7% in GET v2 vs. 66.3% in GET v1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    On average, GET v2 yields slightly faster evacuation times than GET v1, with regional variation in this trend.

    “we found that, on average, the new version of GET yields slightly faster evacuation times, but with regional variation in this trend.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    GET v2 yields a more conservative estimate of maximum walking speeds and produces a more realistic set of values that vary continuously with slope.

    “GET v2 yields a more conservative estimate of maximum walking speeds and produces a more realistic set of values that vary continuously with slope.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Findingown data

    Slash and debris have a strong, regionally specific effect on GET v2, with high concentrations on the West Coast and Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest, and the Northeast.

    “Slash and debris should have a similarly strong, albeit much more regionally specific effect, with high concentrations on the West Coast and Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest, and the Northeast (Figure 6C).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Post-fire landscapes with fallen trees, forests affected by insect/disease/windthrow, post-logging slash areas, and forests with high coarse woody debris loads are very challenging and slow to walk through.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The relative abundance of minor roads/trails and streams is comparably low and more spatially diffuse throughout CONUS.

    “The relative abundance of minor roads/trails (Figure 6B) and streams (Figure 6D) is comparably low, and more spatially diffuse throughout CONUS”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Findingown data

    The incident reports contained varying levels of detail on evacuation start locations.

    “The incident reports contained varying levels of detail on evacuation start (i.e., injury) locations for associating the incident with the GET v2 results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    There are several pockets of high shrub cover where travel rates should decrease, including California's chaparral, the Gambel oak woodlands of the Wasatch Mountains and Colorado's Western Slope, and the mesquite shrublands of South Texas.

    “There are several pockets of high cover, however, where travel rates should decrease, including California's chaparral, the Gambel oak woodlands of the Wasatch Mountains and Colorado's Western Slope, and the mesquite shrublands of South Texas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    The Great Basin features the highest average evacuation times, followed by the Southwest.

    “First, the Great Basin features the highest average evacuation times, followed by the Southwest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    Portions of landscapes with low shrub cover or a high density of minor roads and trails are less challenging for evacuations.

    “Portions of landscapes with low shrub cover or a high density of minor roads and trails will be perceived as less challenging for evacuations, while areas with high shrub cover, high woody debris loads, or an abundance of perennial streams will appear more difficult for evacuations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    Regions with much higher evacuation times in GET v2 have either lost hospitals, decommissioned roads, or are impacted by one of the new off-road travel factors.

    “Regions with much higher evacuation times in GET v2 (Figure 11) have either lost hospitals, decommissioned roads, or are impacted by one of the new off-road travel factors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Findingown data

    In Central Nevada, the dark green patch contains a hospital that was classified as closed in the HIFLD attributes.

    “One certain example of that is in Central Nevada, where the dark green patch contains a hospital that was classified as closed in the HIFLD attributes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Findingown data

    The nine incidents used to compare reported evacuation times to GET v2 span the time period 2007-2016.

    “They span the time period 2007-2016.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The evaluation results should be interpreted cautiously due to small sample size and uncertainty in extracting spatial information and timelines from unstandardized reports.

    “The evaluation results should be interpreted cautiously, given the small sample size and uncertainty associated with extracting spatial information and timelines from unstandardized reports.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Throughout development of GET v2, input was sought and received from a stakeholder group comprising federal geospatial and wildland fire professionals, and the group played an important role in methodological decision-making where expert opinion was required.

    “Throughout the development of GET v2, we sought and received input from a stakeholder group comprising federal geospatial and wildland fire professionals.The group played a particularly important role in the methodological decision-making, where expert opinion was required.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Where existing travel rate functions were unavailable, expert knowledge from the authors and broader subject matter expert group was relied upon.

    “Where we were unable to leverage existing travel rate functions, we relied on expert knowledge accrued from the many years of experience traversing complex landscapes possessed by the authors, as well as the broader subject matter expert group.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    GET v1 was one of the most frequently used datasets for strategic planning from the decision support layers promoted by the Risk Management Assistance Program.

    “According to a recent survey, GET v1 was one of the most frequently used datasets for strategic planning from the decision support layers promoted by the Risk Management Assistance Program [35].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] Beeton, T.A., Caggiano, M.D., Colavito, M.M., and Ch’aska, H. (2022). Use of Risk Management Assistance during the 2021 Fire Season: A Technical Report, Southwest Ecological Restoration Institute.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    Postfire landscapes where trees have fallen, forests that have experienced major insect, disease, or windthrow events, post-logging areas with high concentration of slash, and forests with high loads of coarse woody debris are all very challenging and slow to walk through.

    “Postfire landscapes where trees have fallen, forests that have experienced major insect, disease, or windthrow events, post-logging areas with a high concentration of slash, and even just forests with high loads of coarse woody debris are all very challenging and slow to walk through.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Least-cost path modeling is a well-established, widely used geospatial modeling technique that identifies the path of least resistance between two or more locations on a landscape, given spatially explicit constraints.

    “Least-cost path modeling is a well-established, widely used geospatial modeling technique that identifies the path of least resistance between two or more locations on a landscape, given a set of spatially explicit constraints [38].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [38] Douglas, 1994, Least-Cost Path in GIS Using an Accumulated Cost Surface and Slopelines, Cartogr. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Geovisualization source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    In GET v1, land cover was treated as an impediment using a 5-class system.

    “In GET v1, land cover was treated as an impediment using a 5-class system (Tables 2 and 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23] (2024, May 16). United States Geological Survey WFDSS Help | Estimated Ground Medevac Time, Available online: https://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss_help/WFDSSHelp_Est_Grd_Medevac_Time.html.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    Traveling on steep slopes is challenging in both directions but is less physically demanding downhill than uphill.

    “This makes intuitive sense-traveling on steep slopes is challenging in both directions but is less physically demanding downhill than uphill.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Shrubs with a higher cover than 33% represent an increase in apparent travel cost and shrubs with a lower cover represent a decrease in cost over GET v1.

    “such that shrubs with a higher cover than that represent an increase in apparent travel cost and shrubs with a lower cover represent a decrease in cost over the previous version.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Minor roads and trails always promote movement (reduce cost).

    “Minor roads and trails should always promote movement (reduce cost) (Figure 6B).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Land cover characteristics influence pedestrian travel; for example, traversing dense, tall vegetation is slower than traversing sparse or no vegetation.

    “Land cover characteristics also influence pedestrian travel.For example, traversing dense, tall vegetation is slower than traversing sparse or no vegetation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [33] Campbell, 2017, A LiDAR-Based Analysis of the Effects of Slope, Vegetation Density, and Ground Surface Roughness on Travel Rates for Wildland Firefighter Escape Route Mapping, Int. J. Wildland Fire source
    • cites [34] Butler, B.W., and Alexander, M.E. Travel Rates of Alberta Wildland Firefighters Using Escape Routes. Proceedings of the Human Factors—10 Years Later.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [37] Wood, A., Mackaness, W., Simpson, T.I., and Armstrong, J.D. (2023). Improved Prediction of Hiking Speeds Using a Data Driven Approach. PLoS ONE, 18. source
    • cites [41] Richmond, 2015, Terrain Factors for Predicting Walking and Load Carriage Energy Costs: Review and Refinement, J. Sport Hum. Perform.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The relationship between slope and travel rates has been well studied, so a robust slope-travel rate equation was used as the basis for assigning slope-based costs.

    “For example, the relationship between slope and travel rates has been well studied, so we were able to use a robust slope-travel rate equation to serve as the basis for assigning slope-based costs [36].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Campbell, 2022, Predicting the Variability in Pedestrian Travel Rates and Times Using Crowdsourced GPS Data, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    GET v2 adds nuance to the land cover and slope-based travel rate estimates and a suite of new impediments firefighters often face in wildland settings.

    “GET v2 both adds nuance to the land cover and slope-based travel rate estimates and a suite of new impediments firefighters often face in wildland settings.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    The HERE roads data are very extensive and capture the vast majority of the drivable roads in the US.

    “The HERE roads data are very extensive and capture the vast majority of the drivable roads in the US (Figure 2B).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Premisecitation

    GET v1 utilized a hospital dataset from HSIP filtered to identify definitive care facilities within CONUS.

    “GET v1 utilized a hospital dataset from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's Homeland Security Infrastructure Program (HSIP) filtered to identify”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23] (2024, May 16). United States Geological Survey WFDSS Help | Estimated Ground Medevac Time, Available online: https://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss_help/WFDSSHelp_Est_Grd_Medevac_Time.html.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    High tree canopy cover does not necessarily correlate to (and may in fact be inversely related to) low-lying vegetation density.

    “High tree canopy cover does not necessarily correlate to (and may in fact be inversely related to) low-lying vegetation density.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    In the remote areas where firefighters often work, there are many miles of minor roads and trails that are not captured in the HERE data.

    “However, in the remote areas where firefighters often work, there are many miles of minor roads and trails that are not captured in the HERE data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    GET v1 relied on a road network dataset from NAVTEQ, version 2010.2, generated in September 2010.

    “GET v1 relied on a road network dataset from NAVTEQ, version 2010.2, generated in September 2010 [23].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23] (2024, May 16). United States Geological Survey WFDSS Help | Estimated Ground Medevac Time, Available online: https://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss_help/WFDSSHelp_Est_Grd_Medevac_Time.html.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Traveling through very dense (e.g., 90% cover) shrubs would be comparable to (and in some cases potentially even slower than) traveling through a forest.

    “On the opposite extreme, traveling through very dense (e.g., 90% cover) shrubs would be comparable to (and in some cases potentially even slower than) traveling through a forest.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: No CONUS-wide representation of low-lying vegetation density exists at present.
    • Rests on an assumption: Areas mapped as shrub-dominated in EVT data feature vegetation similar in height to humans.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    The relationship with shrub cover is bidirectional: areas with shrub cover less than 33% promote movement relative to GET v1's 2× impedance factor, whereas areas with shrub cover greater than 33% hinder movement.

    “The relationship with shrub cover, however, is bidirectional, such that areas with a shrub cover less than 33% should promote movement relative to GET v1's 2× impedance factor, whereas areas with a shrub cover greater than 33% should hinder movement (Figures 6A and 7).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Slash/debris and streams always hinder movement (increase cost).

    “Conversely, slash/debris and streams should always hinder movement (increase cost) (Figure 6C,D).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Post-fire landscapes with fallen trees, forests affected by insect/disease/windthrow, post-logging slash areas, and forests with high coarse woody debris loads are very challenging and slow to walk through.
    • Rests on an assumption: Small streams are considerably easier to traverse than large water bodies.
    • Rests on an assumption: Ignoring small streams entirely fails to capture the decrease in walking speeds through water and over loose, slippery, and/or uneven bed material.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The combination of hospitals, road network, and off-road travel provides a suitable approximation of the travel portion of a medical evacuation timeline.

    “The combination of these three components provides a suitable approximation of the travel portion of a medical evacuation timeline.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Travel time between a hospital and a location is reciprocal; the time to travel between a hospital and a location is the same irrespective of travel direction.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Given the option to walk through a forest or on an even poorly maintained minor forest road or trail, firefighters would likely opt to walk along the road/trail.

    “Given the option to walk through a forest or on an even poorly maintained minor forest road or trail, firefighters would likely opt to walk along the road/trail.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Minor roads may not be reliably accessible to vehicles due to lack of improvement or maintenance.

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The input datasets upon which GET v2 is based possess inherent spatial and thematic uncertainty.

    “First and foremost, the input datasets upon which GET v2 is based (hospitals, roads, fuel, topography, etc.) possess inherent spatial and thematic uncertainty.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    GET shares characteristics with global health care access maps from Weiss et al. and AccessMod 5 in that they all consider medical facilities, transportation networks, and landscape conditions in a least-cost path-driven spatial modeling context.

    “It shares some characteristics with efforts such as the global health care access maps from Weiss et al. [30] and the software platform AccessMod 5 [32], in that they all consider medical facilities, transportation networks, and landscape conditions in a least-cost path-driven spatial modeling context.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [30] Weiss, 2020, Global Maps of Travel Time to Healthcare Facilities, Nat. Med. source
    • cites [32] Ray, 2008, AccessMod 3.0: Computing Geographic Coverage and Accessibility to Health Care Services Using Anisotropic Movement of Patients, Int. J. Health Geogr. source

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Expert opinion plays an important role in wide-ranging environmental modeling applications, particularly when empirical evidence is absent.

    “Expert opinion plays an important role in wide-ranging environmental modeling applications, particularly when empirical evidence is absent [54].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [54] Krueger, 2012, The Role of Expert Opinion in Environmental Modelling, Environ. Model. Softw. source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductown data

    We cannot provide a precise accuracy assessment of GET v2 due to uncertainty in the true incident point locations.

    “Given the uncertainty in the true incident point locations, we cannot provide a precise accuracy assessment of GET v2.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The sharp decrease in mean evacuation time in Northern California is most likely attributable to the inclusion of one or more new hospitals in GET v2.

    “Without direct access to the input datasets used in the creation of GET v1, we cannot definitively state why this change occurred, but given the magnitude of the change, it is most likely attributable to the inclusion of one or more new hospitals in GET v2 in Northern California.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationnone given

    The dark brown spots in Figure 10 likely represent new or additional hospitals included in GET v2 but not GET v1.

    “The dark brown spots likely represent new, or otherwise additional, hospitals that were included in GET v2 but not in GET v1.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    We relied on expert opinion to drive a conservative representation of pedestrian travel times, erring on the side of caution for safety-focused fire response planning.

    “To fill gaps in the empirical research, we relied on expert opinion to drive what we intended to be a conservative representation of pedestrian travel times, erring on the side of caution for safety-focused fire response planning.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: There are not enough studies that examine experimental or crowdsourced data representing the effects that landscape conditions have on walking speed.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Including stream and woody debris costs in GET v2 adds a useful degree of caution for risk assessment and mitigation planning, even if the specific multiplicative cost factors have not been independently validated.

    “Thus, including them in GET v2, even if the specific multiplicative cost factors have not been independently validated, adds a useful degree of caution for risk assessment and mitigation planning.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Crossing a stream adds time to an evacuation, as does traversing dense woody debris.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationown data

    High slash/debris concentrations may have driven increased travel times in the Upper Midwest.

    “High slash/debris concentrations may have driven increased travel times in the Upper Midwest (Figure 6C).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Post-fire landscapes with fallen trees, forests affected by insect/disease/windthrow, post-logging slash areas, and forests with high coarse woody debris loads are very challenging and slow to walk through.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationown data

    Dark green spots in Figure 10 may represent hospital closures.

    “Conversely, dark green spots may represent hospital closures.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Great Basin and Southwest possess a combination of factors that lead to higher overall evacuation times, including fewer hospitals and major road networks and many remote areas with fuel and topographic conditions that hinder efficient movement.

    “Both of these regions possess a combination of factors that lead to higher overall evacuation times, including fewer hospitals and major road networks (Figure 2) and many remote areas with fuel and topographic conditions that hinder efficient movement.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    GET is better suited for wildland fire management than comparable spatial medical accessibility efforts for several reasons, including its comparably high spatial resolution (30 m), the use of an improved slope-travel rate function, the use of current vegetation and fuels data, and the focus on incorporating more nuanced off-road landscape travel costs likely to be encountered by wildland firefir

    “However, GET is better suited for wildland fire management for several reasons, including its comparably high spatial resolution (30 m), the use of an improved slope-travel rate function, the use of current vegetation and fuels data, and the focus on incorporating more nuanced off-road landscape travel costs likely to be encountered by wildland firefighters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The ability to apply the latest mobility research in GET is sometimes limited by the availability of appropriate spatial data (especially vegetation structure) needed for predictions at regional or national scales.

    “As mentioned in the land cover methods section, our ability to apply the latest mobility research is sometimes limited by the availability of the appropriate spatial data (especially vegetation structure) needed to make predictions at regional or national scales.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationown data

    Other increased travel times in Southern Louisiana and Southern Florida may be associated with the added restriction against traversing large, LANDFIRE-mapped waterbodies.

    “Other increased travel times in Southern Louisiana and Southern Florida may be associated with our added restriction against traversing large, LANDFIRE-mapped waterbodies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Expert opinion is widely used in the development of comparable wildland fire spatial decision support datasets, such as GET v1 and the Suppression Difficulty Index.

    “It is widely used in the development of comparable wildland fire spatial decision support datasets, such as GET v1 and the Suppression Difficulty Index [22,23].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [22] Silva, 2020, Modelling Suppression Difficulty: Current and Future Applications, Int. J. Wildland Fire source
    • cites [23] (2024, May 16). United States Geological Survey WFDSS Help | Estimated Ground Medevac Time, Available online: https://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss_help/WFDSSHelp_Est_Grd_Medevac_Time.html.
52 of 52

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Long evacuation times increase the risk to firefighters.

    “Long evacuation times increase the risk to firefighters”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Prompt access to medical care is key to reducing injury consequences.

    “prompt access to medical care is key to reducing injury consequences.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Fires in more remote areas (distant from hospitals, farther along minor road networks, and/or deeper into off-road settings) have longer medical evacuation times.

    “Fires in more remote areas (distant from hospitals, farther along minor road networks, and/or deeper into off-road settings) have longer medical evacuation times.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the absence of air support for evacuations, long ground travel times may prevent injured firefighters from receiving proper care within a medically critical time frame.

    “In the absence of air support for evacuations, long ground travel times may prevent injured firefighters from receiving proper care within a medically critical time frame.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Travel time between a hospital and a location is reciprocal; the time to travel between a hospital and a location is the same irrespective of travel direction.

    “The travel time was assumed to be reciprocal for this analysis, such that the time it takes to travel between a hospital and a particular location on the landscape should be the same irrespective of travel direction.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No CONUS-wide representation of low-lying vegetation density exists at present.

    “No such dataset exists at present, limiting our ability to directly map density-based impedance.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Areas mapped as shrub-dominated in EVT data feature vegetation similar in height to humans.

    “However, by definition, areas mapped as being shrubdominated in the EVT data feature vegetation similar in height to humans.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Some tree-dominated environments are easier and faster to traverse than some dense shrub-dominated environments.

    “We know, in practice, that some tree-dominated environments are easier and faster to traverse than some dense shrub-dominated environments, but we could not use tree cover in the same way that we used shrub cover to obtain a more nuanced indicator of low-lying vegetation density.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Minor roads may not be reliably accessible to vehicles due to lack of improvement or maintenance.

    “On one hand, this exclusion may be useful for erring on the side of caution; minor roads may not be reliably accessible to vehicles due to lack of improvement or maintenance.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Post-fire landscapes with fallen trees, forests affected by insect/disease/windthrow, post-logging slash areas, and forests with high coarse woody debris loads are very challenging and slow to walk through.

    “Post-fire landscapes where trees have fallen, forests that have experienced major insect, disease, or windthrow events, post-logging areas with a high concentration of slash, and even just forests with high loads of coarse woody debris are all very challenging and slow to walk through.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Small streams are considerably easier to traverse than large water bodies.

    “Small streams are considerably easier to traverse than large water bodies.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Ignoring small streams entirely fails to capture the decrease in walking speeds through water and over loose, slippery, and/or uneven bed material.

    “However, to ignore them entirely fails to capture the decrease in walking speeds through water and over loose, slippery, and/or uneven bed material.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Current landscape conditions (hospitals, roads, vegetation, etc.) are similar enough to conditions at the time of the nine evaluation fires for comparison.

    “The GET v2 estimates are also based on current landscape conditions (hospitals, roads, vegetation, etc.), which may differ from the landscape conditions at the time of our nine evaluation fires.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Every pixel in CONUS is theoretically accessible, unless defined as a slope- or water-driven barrier.

    “For one, this product assumes that every pixel in CONUS is theoretically accessible, unless defined as a slope-or water-driven barrier.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Land ownership or management type does not influence travel.

    “Given the focus on emergency response, we did not consider that land ownership or management type would influence travel, but there are situations in which fences, gates, or uncooperative landowners could slow or divert an evacuation.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Off-road travel will be taking place on foot at a typical walking pace.

    “Fourth, GET v2 only accounts for the travel portion of an evacuation and assumes that off-road travel will be taking place on foot at a typical walking pace.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Firefighters would likely take suboptimal paths when traveling from the injury site to the nearest vehicular access.

    “In reality, firefighters would likely take suboptimal paths when traveling from the injury site to the nearest vehicular access.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Crossing a stream adds time to an evacuation, as does traversing dense woody debris.

    “For example, experience and intuition tells us that crossing a stream adds time to an evacuation, as does traversing dense woody debris-both factors previously omitted from GET v1.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There are not enough studies that examine experimental or crowdsourced data representing the effects that landscape conditions have on walking speed.

    “Although our slope-travel rate relationship was based on a scientifically robust study of pedestrian travel rates [36], there simply are not enough studies that examine experimental or crowdsourced data representing the effects that landscape conditions have on walking speed.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The eight ground evacuation incidents used to evaluate GET v2 are representative of typical wildland firefighter ground evacuations.

    “The eight ground evacuation incidents used as a base of comparison to GET v2.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The ground evacuation times gleaned from incident reports are accurate enough to serve as a valid comparison for GET v2.

    “Comparison between ground evacuation times gleaned from incident reports (x-axis) and GET v2 raw, unclassified pixel values within polygons associated with each incident.”
21 of 21

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Slash-blowdown cost is stated as 4× but tabulated as 5×

    Major

    The methods assign the four slash-blowdown fuel types a 4× cost multiplier, while Table 4 assigns every one of those types 5×. This changes a model input used to estimate evacuation times.

  • Table 6 says eight incidents, while the analysis says nine

    Minor

    The methods and results both state that nine incidents were used, but the Table 6 caption calls the comparison set eight incidents.

  • Highest speed-category selection falls outside its stated range

    Minor

    The paper says selected road speeds fall within their category ranges, but Table 1 selects 80 mi/h for a category defined as greater than 80 mi/h.

3 of 3

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 45 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Butler, B.W., and Alexander, M.E. Travel Rates of Alberta Wildland Firefighters Using Escape Routes. Proceedings of the Human Factors—10 Years Later.
  2. Naismith, 1892, Cruach Adran, Stobinian, and Ben More, Scott. Mt. Club J., 2, 136

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Metadata

Authors
Campbell, M. J., Gannon, B. M., Rahman, O., Stratton, R. D., & Dennison, P. E.
Affiliations
  • University of Utah (US)
  • USDA Forest Service, National Office, Fire and Aviation Management, Washington, DC 20250, USA
  • School of Environment, Society & Sustainability, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
Corresponding author
Campbell, Michael J.
ORCID
Venue
Fire
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2024-08-20
Volume
7
Issue
8
Pages
292
ISSN
2571-6255 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/fire7080292
OpenAlex
W4401981676
Cited by
5
References
45
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 3
FWCI
1.13
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Fire (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
USDA Forest Service (23-CA-11132543-064)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Facility Location and Emergency Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Occupational Health and Performance
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics
Keywords
wildland firefighters, firefighter safety, risk-based decision making, terrain slope, landscape variables, shrub cover, woody debris, streams, cliffs, hospital accessibility

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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