Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere
Abstract
Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, −1.2 days decade −1 ), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, −1.0 days decade −1 ; last spring day below 5°C, −1.4 days decade −1 ), and last spring freeze date (−1.5 days decade −1 ) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.
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Climate warming is projected to reduce fuel moisture and make fire-conducive weather more common, while climate-linked earlier springs are advancing phenology.
“Additionally, projected climate warming is expected to lower fuel moisture and create more frequent weather conditions conducive to fire ignition and spread (45), and earlier springs attributed to climate change are leading to accelerated phenology (42).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [42]
Climate-driven earlier springs may combine with human ignitions to raise the chance of large fires in the central US.
“This increasing trend suggests that earlier springs as a result of climate change (42, 43) may be interacting with human ignition sources to increase the risk of large fires in the central United States.”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [42]
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- Authors
- SCHWARTZ, M. D., AHAS, R., & AASA, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Corresponding author
- SCHWARTZ, MARK D.
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-01-16
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 343-351
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2131062081
- Cited by
- 1,037
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 66 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 55 · 2015: 61 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 54
- FWCI
- 30.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- American Heart Association
- Eesti Teadusfondi
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant Physiology and Cultivation Studies
- Keywords
- spring onset, growing season, plant phenology, global warming, Northern Hemisphere, temperate ecosystems, climate change impacts on agriculture, North America, Europe, East Asia
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