Syria: From authoritarian upgrading to revolution

“Hinnebusch gives a clear explanation of why Bashar al-Assad’s attempt to open the Syrian economy to the world market through a progressive transition from a centrally planned economy to a ‘social market economy’ failed and, ultimately, led to the 2011 uprising.(31) In the agricultural sector, deregulation measures sin…”

“Having adapted to the new realities of the post-Cold War era, numerous authoritarian regimes have undergone ‘upgrading’ (Heydemann 2007; Hinnebusch 2012) and regularly conduct elections, even if not in a free and fair manner (Morse 2011; Schedler 2006).5 Elections function as a double-edged sword:…”

“37 Hinnebusch 2012.”

“All of this, and more, is extensively detailed in the literature on Syria’s post-2000 authoritarian liberalisation (e.g. Dahi and Munif, 2011; Haddad, 2011; Hinnebusch, 2012; Abboud, 2016).”

“We focus on one of these services – namely, the provision of electricity.”

“…in Syria was fueled by mass defections from the army, as conscripts joined the resistance, appalled by the massive repression (Nepstad 2013: 344-345) The funerals of those killed by the regime became focal points for further protest, amplified by coverage in the social media (Hinnebusch 2012: 109).”

“Hinnebusch (2012) somewhat colourfully refers to this tactic as deliberately utilising media technology to ‘produce a multi-headed swarm’ which governments cannot easily ‘decapitate’ (p. 113).”

“…intervention on behalf of the opposition and later to shore up the regime, which funnelled the arms and money to continue the conflict, followed by the arrival of foreign jihadists—all these factors drove Syria’s trajectory of deepening conflict (Hinnebusch 2012; Hinnebusch, Imady, Zintl 2015).”

“Some authors assume these individuals to dislike their regimes but suffer from a “barrier of fear” (Hinnebusch 2012, 104; Weyland 2012, 926; also see Makiya 1998).”

“We assess the potential of decentralisation reforms to develop mechanisms that contribute to authoritarian upgrading (Heydemann 2007; Hinnebusch 2012).”

“Studies on the politics of authoritarianism have focused on the role of military in sustaining the survival of these regimes (Heydmann 2007; Hinnebusch 2012).”

“This memory was a driver of resistance, as well as a warning about the regime’s willingness to resort to annihilation policies to suppress such resistance (Ismail, 2018; Hinnebusch, 2012).”

“…government’s Health Sector Modernisation Programme was at a much earlier stage prior to the current political crisis, the reform programme had extended significantly the role of private provision in health care, as public spending on health had declined (Hinnebusch, 2012; Sen & al Faisal, 2012).”

“Also driving escalation of the conflict were the maximalist demands of the opposition: the “fall of the regime” – a ‘rush to confrontation’ with the regime while the latter still retained significant support (Hinnebusch 2012; Mandour 2013).”

“Similar peaceful protests then spread to Egypt against the Mubarak regime in early 2011 and, from Egypt, more violent revolutions spread to Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria (Anderson 2011).”

“In addition, recent research on authoritarian resilience in the Middle East and beyond has stressed the importance of divide‐and‐rule tactics to the survival of authori‐ tarian regimes (e.g. Thorp 2014; Cavatorta 2012: 6; Hinnebusch 2012; King 2007).”

“Hence, China’s pragmatic diplomacy attempts to keep a balance of Israel, Iran, Turkey and Syria, on the one hand, and among the big external forces, namely the US the EU and Russia, on the other hand.”

“His inaugural speech underlined his intentions of developing Syria in a different direction with a focus on economic liberalization and adapting ‘the country to the age of globalization through measures such as introduction of the internet’ (Hinnebusch, 2012: 98).”

“This is because of the particularity of Lebanon in its confessional power-sharing arrangement, in contrast to Syria (prior to the 2011 conflict), with a single ruling party backed by a powerful military (Haddad, 2005; Hannebusch, 2012), and the Jordanian monarchical system where crucial and decisive decisions are dete…”

“This period saw a swift surge in political activism seeking to end the emergency law and establish a multiparty system with competitive elections, part of what has been dubbed the “Damascus Spring” (Hinnebusch, 2012).”

“In turn, this and especially the 1973 war ‘endowed the regime with a measure of nationalist legitimacy’ (Hinnebusch, 2012: 97) that significantly strengthened Asad's rule.”

“As Raymond Hinnebusch explains, within 11 years of Bashar al-Assad assuming power in Syria his attempt to ‘modernize authoritarianism’ had collapsed into turmoil.(35) Since then, the conflict has become more multifaceted, needing to be understood within the regional context of ‘complex geo-strategic relationships’ whi…”

“Syria embarked on an aggressive liberalisation drive in the 1990s that aimed at cutting domestic spending and mobilising international private capital (Hinnebusch, 2012).”

“…and ‘aimed to survive the incremental transition to a partial market economy and since no significant business venture was possible without regime insiders taking a percentage, regime crony capitalists developed intimate partnerships with wider elements of the bourgeoisie’ (Hinnebusch 2012: 101).”

“…by ‘hard-liners’, who see negotiation or compromise as an unwelcome sign of weakness and a lack of commitment to seeing the job through by any means necessary (Hinnebusch, 2012); in other words, hard-liners are not willing to seek solutions which reflect compromise between polarized positions.”

“67 He claimed the opposition were “led by armed gangs, criminals and sectarian jihadists “and were supported by external forces.”

“It had only little ability to canalise popular demands (Hinnebusch 2012).”

“The wisdom of Przeworsky [19] about the impact on perceptions of the feasibility of democratic revolution in democratizing regions was also utilized in the analyses of the opportunities available for the toppling of autocrats in the Middle East [20].”

“From 2000 onwards, however, under Bashar’s post-populist reform programme the regime’s social basis narrowed, reducing the flow of patronage to Sunni tribesmen (Hinnebusch 2012, 99).”

“While the burden of taxes on the majority of Syrian citizens became heavier (Hinnebusch 2012), public purchasing power fell and local businesses collapsed, while a new capitalist class began to raise fuelling inequalities.”

“While these processes and their attendant webs of bureaucracy were not without slippages and contradictions, under early Ba’thist Syria poverty diminished and human development indicators rose, even in Syria’s poorest regions (Azmeh 2014; Batatu 1999; Hinnebusch 2012; Khatib 2011; Rabo 1986).”

“…‘social market economy’ failed in redistributing wealth and alienated broad sectors of society, since it led to the enrichment of a new bourgeoisie while the majority of the population experienced a reduction in subsidies and a serious employment halt in state-run sector (Hinnebusch, 2012, p. 102).”

“…(formal and informal) is suggested by the fact that only 10% of Syria’s housing stock was rated by UNHABITAT as slum housing, a low figure for the region (Goulden 2011; Hinnebusch 2012a), and that urban poverty was not confined to informal neighbourhoods (El Laithy and Abu-Ismail 2005).”

“At the same time, in order to make up for the loss of external aid, the regime partly opened foreign investment to Western countries, and turned over the monopolies to the private sector and the military budget (Hinnebudch 2012).”

“Despite that, President Bashar al-Assad enjoyed public support (Phillips 2012, 37; Hinnebusch 2012, 103).1 Nevertheless, since 15 March 2011 more than 20,000 people have been killed and between 500,000 and 1 million Syrians have been internally displaced; and tens of thousands of people have fled…”