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Cited by 333Middle East and Rwanda ConflictsPolitical Conflict and GovernancePolitical and Social Issues

The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?

Weyland, Kurt·2012·Perspectives on Politics
DOI 10.1017/s1537592712002873
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Abstract

Prominent scholars have highlighted important similarities between the Arab Spring of 2011 and the “revolutions” of 1848: Both waves of contention swept with dramatic speed across whole regions, but ended up yielding rather limited advances toward political liberalism and democracy. I seek to uncover the causal mechanisms that help account for these striking parallels. Drawing on my recent analysis of 1848, I argue that contention spread so quickly because many people in a wide range of countries drew rash inferences from the downfall of Tunisia's dictator. Applying cognitive heuristics that psychologists have documented, they overrated the significance of the Tunisian success, overestimated the similarities with the political situation in their own country, and jumped to the conclusion that they could successfully challenge their own autocrats. This precipitation prompted protests in many settings that actually were much less propitious; therefore problems abounded. Cognitive shortcuts held such sway because Arab societies were weakly organized and repressed and thus lacked leaders from whom common people could take authoritative cues. The decision whether to engage in emulative contention fell to ordinary citizens, who—due to limited information access and scarce experience—were especially susceptible to the simple inferences suggested by cognitive heuristics.

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  • Revolutionaries in states outside the original onset of the crisis often overstate the possibilities of revolutionary success, placing too much weight on dramatic news from elsewhere and drawing firm conclusions from relatively sparse information.

    “revolutionaries in states outside the original onset of the crisis often overstate the possibilities of revolutionary success, placing too much weight on dramatic news from elsewhere and drawing firm conclusions from relatively sparse information (Weyland 2012: 920-4)”

    From Within and Beyond the “Fourth Generation” of Revolutionary Theory (2016) · cites this paper as Weyland 2012

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 13

  1. Nunns, 2011, Tweets from Tahrir
  2. Nordhausen, 2011, Die arabische Revolution
  3. 10.1525/california/9780520266322.001.0001 · DOI
  4. Tsebelis, 1990, Nested Games
  5. Huntington, 1991, The Third Wave
  6. Heibach, 2011, Die arabische Revolution
  7. Ghonim, 2012, Revolution 2.0: A Memoir
  8. Feiler, 2011, Generation Freedom
  9. Brownlee, After the Awakening: Revolt, Reform, and Renewal in the Arab World
  10. Asseburg, 2012, Protest, Revolt, and Regime Change in the Arab World
  11. Albrecht, 2007, Debating Arab Authoritarianism
  12. Schmid, 2011, Die arabische Revolution
  13. Aday, 2012, New Media and Conflict after the Arab Spring

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Authors
Weyland, K.
Affiliations
The University of Texas at Austin (US)
Corresponding author
Weyland, Kurt
ORCID
Weyland, Kurt
Venue
Perspectives on Politics
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2012-12
Volume
10
Issue
4
Pages
917-934
ISSN
  • 1537-5927 (ISSN-L)
  • 1541-0986
DOI
10.1017/s1537592712002873
OpenAlex
W2091445573
Semantic Scholar
024a79f927e3d57f32c3d96f3eae4f5a2eccddb1
Cited by
333
References
97
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 37 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 11
FWCI
43.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 18 d)
Locations
Perspectives on Politics (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Middle East and Rwanda Conflicts
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political and Social Issues
Keywords
Arab Spring, Revolutions of 1848, cognitive heuristics, political contagion, authoritarian regimes, Tunisia, political liberalization, democratic transition, information scarcity, authoritarian repression

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