Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Open accessAbstract
Significance: There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In 2010-2011, it is estimated that approximately one million people migrated to urban centers in western Syria, including the seat of the Assad government in Damascus.
“In 2010–2011, it is estimated that approximately one million people migrated to these urban centers, including the seat of the Assad government in Damascus [3, 77].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [77]
The paper’s Significance section estimates that as many as 1.5 million people were displaced by the 2007–2010 drought and says most migrated to the peripheries of Syrian cities. It does not place approximately one million migrations specifically in 2010–2011 or identify western cities or Damascus as destinations (page not available in our copy). (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA prolonged drought in the east and northeast linked to climate change forced pastoralists and farmers to abandon their land, sell their animals, and trek to the cities in the western region of Syria.
“There, a prolonged drought in the east and northeast linked to climate change forced pastoralists and farmers to abandon their land, sell their animals, and trek to the cities in the western region of Syria.”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [77]
The opening section reports a severe multiyear drought, agricultural failure, livestock mortality, and migration from rural farming areas to urban peripheries. The Significance section places the impacts in northeastern Syria and says most displaced people moved to Syria’s cities, but it does not say they sold their animals or specify that the destination cities were in western Syria. The paper links the drought to human-induced climate change while acknowledging other contributors to vulnerability. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAlthough there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria.
“Although there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria [76–78].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [77]
A severe drought in Syria devastated agricultural production, led to rural distress and mass migration to urban areas, contributed to social tensions, and played a role in the outbreak of the civil war.
“For example, a severe drought devastated agricultural production in Syria, leading to significant rural distress and mass migration to urban areas. This contributed to social tensions and played a role in the outbreak of the civil war (Kelley et al 2015).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Kelley et al 2015
Deteriorating precipitation along the eastern frontier can bring about major economic trouble, accompanied by social unrest and demographic upheaval, with major political consequences of the kind seen in Syria in recent years.
“Deteriorating precipitation along this eastern frontier can bring about major economic trouble, accompanied by social unrest and demographic upheaval, with major political consequences of the kind seen in Syria in recent years (e.g.KELLEY et al. 2015).”
From Egyptian Imperial Economy in Canaan: Reaction to the Climate Crisis at the End of the Late Bronze Age (2017) · cites this paper as KELLEY et al. 2015
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398 · see citing works
Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices
HUETE, A. R., Didan, K., Miura, T., Rodriguez, E. P., Gao, X., & Ferreira, L. G. (2002) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/s0034-4257(02)00096-2 · Cited by 9,954 · see citing works
(2007) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 9,612 · see citing works
Change, I. P. O. C. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511546013 · Cited by 7,742 · see citing works
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Edenhofer, O., & Seyboth, K. (2013) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-375067-9.00128-5 · Cited by 3,681 · see citing works
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., et al. (2011) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.776 · Cited by 3,518 · see citing works
Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict
Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1235367 · Cited by 1,827 · see citing works
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola, J.-M., & Morgan, V. I. (1996) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/95jd03410 · Cited by 1,149 · see citing works
Genetics and geography of wild cereal domestication in the near east
Salamini, F., Özkan, H., Brandolini, A., Schäfer-Pregl, R., & Martin, W. F. (2002) · Nature Reviews Genetics · doi:10.1038/nrg817 · Cited by 835 · see citing works
On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought
Hoerling, M. P., Eischeid, J. K., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., & Pegion, P. J. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00296.1 · Cited by 662 · see citing works
Vose, R. S., USDOE, W., Schmoyer, R. L., Steurer, P. M., Peterson, T., HEIM, R., Karl, T., & Eischeid, J. K. (1992) · doi:10.2172/10178730 · Cited by 491 · see citing works
Changes in North American spring
Schwartz, M. D., & Reiter, B. E. (2000) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/1097-0088(20000630)20:8 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict
Goldstone, J. Α. (2002) · Virtual Defense Library (Ministerio de Defensa) · Cited by 355 · see citing works
De Châtel, F. (2014) · Middle Eastern Studies · doi:10.1080/00263206.2013.850076 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Aizpurua, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., & García‐Herrera, R. (2011) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Joodaki, G., Wahr, J., & Swenson, S. C. (2014) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2013wr014633 · Cited by 283 · see citing works
Syria: From authoritarian upgrading to revolution
HINNEBUSCH, R. (2012) · International Affairs · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01059.x · Cited by 283 · see citing works
One effect to rule them all? a comment on climate and conflict
Buhaug, H., Nordkvelle, J., Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Brzoska, M., Busby, J. W., Ciccone, A., Fjelde, H., Gartzke, E., Gleditsch, N. P., et al. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Bacastow, R. B., et al. (2001) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 237 · see citing works
Seager, R., Liu, H., Henderson, N., Simpson, I. R., Kelley, C. P., Shaw, T. A., Kushnir, Y., & Ting, M. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00446.1 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Self-citationVose, R. S., DOE, USDOE, W., et al. (1992) · doi:10.2172/7129456 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Trigo, R. M., Gouveia, C. M., & Barriopedro, D. (2010) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.05.006 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5
Kelley, C. P., Ting, M., Seager, R., et al. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl053416 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Self-citationKitoh, A., Yatagai, A., & Alpert, P. (2008) · Hydrological Research Letters · doi:10.3178/hrl.2.1 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Kelley, C. P., Ting, M., Seager, R., et al. (2011) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationReconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa
Hsiang, S., & Meng, K. C. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1316006111 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Managing the Waters of Baՙth Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria
Barnes, J. (2009) · Geopolitics · doi:10.1080/14650040802694117 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
A call for peace on climate and conflict
Solow, A. R. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/497179a · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Beyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food SecurityPreprint
Breisinger, C., Ecker, O., Al-Riffai, P., et al. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Fuller, M. G. (1990) · Outlook on Agriculture · doi:10.1177/003072709001900418 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Euphrates-Tigris Rivers System: Political Rapprochement and Transboundary Water Cooperation
Kibaroğlu, A., & Scheumann, W. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19636-2_16 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Cane, M., Miguel, E., Burke, M., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D., Meng, K. C., & Satyanath, S. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2171 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationSolh, M. B. (2010) · Nature Middle East · doi:10.1038/nmiddleeast.2010.206 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Water demand management in Syria: centralized and decentralized views
Salman, M., & Mualla, W. (2008) · Water Policy · doi:10.2166/wp.2008.065 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Migration Patterns in Duhok Governorate, Iraq, 2000-2010
Eklund, L. (2012) · The Open Geography Journal · doi:10.2174/1874923201205010048 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Mutai, C. (2000) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- de Chatel F (2014) The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: Untangling the triggers of the revolution. Middle East Stud 50(4):521-535.
- Cullen HM, deMenocal PB (2000) North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates stream- flow. Int J Climatol 20(8):853-863.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Whitmee, S., Haines, A., Beyrer, C., Boltz, F., Capon, A. G., de Souza Dias, B. F., Ezeh, A., Frumkin, H., Gong, P., Head, P., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60901-1 · Cited by 2,998 · see citing works
Watts, N., Amann, M., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., et al. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32464-9 · Cited by 1,236 · see citing works
Future of the human climate niche
Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C., & Scheffer, M. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1910114117 · Cited by 862 · see citing works
Climate, conflict and forced migration
Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Muttarak, R. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 · Cited by 564 · see citing works
Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited
Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M. (2017) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007 · Cited by 499 · see citing works
Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E., & Schraven, B. (2019) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/rez008 · Cited by 482 · see citing works
Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., & Buhaug, H. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607542113 · Cited by 458 · see citing works
Social vulnerability to climate change: A review of concepts and evidence
Otto, I. M., Reckien, D., Reyer, C. P. O., Marcus, R., Le Masson, V., Jones, L., Norton, A., & Serdeczny, O. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1105-9 · Cited by 400 · see citing works
A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration
Hoffmann, R., Dimitrova, A., Muttarak, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Peisker, J. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6 · Cited by 362 · see citing works
Martin-Shields, C. P., & Stojetz, W. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.011 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies
Brzoska, M., & Fröhlich, C. (2016) · Migration and Development · doi:10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973 · Cited by 281 · see citing works
The health impacts of climate-related migration
Schwerdtle, P., Bowen, K., & McMichael, C. (2018) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-017-0981-7 · Cited by 260 · see citing works
Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J., & Lloyd, E. (2018) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Climate Change and Collective Violence
Levy, B. S., Sidel, V. W., & Patz, J. A. (2017) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044232 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health
Torres, J. M., & Casey, J. A. (2017) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4508-0 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Jones, B. T., Mattiacci, E., & Braumoeller, B. F. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316684662 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.
Balsari, S., Dresser, C., & Leaning, J. (2020) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
International migration and climate adaptation in an era of hardening borders
McLeman, R. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0634-2 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0258-7 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset
Ash, K., & Obradovich, N. (2020) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002719864140 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry
Semenza, J. C., & Ebi, K. L. (2019) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taz026 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Drought and Distress in Southeastern Australia
Hanigan, I. C., Schirmer, J., & Niyonsenga, T. (2018) · EcoHealth · doi:10.1007/s10393-018-1339-0 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Natural hazards, internal migration and protests in Bangladesh
Petrova, K. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320973741 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria
Linke, A. M., & Ruether, B. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320973070 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Environmental migrants and social-movement participation
Koubi, V., Nguyen, Q., Spilker, G., & Böhmelt, T. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320972153 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Parker, E. R., Mo, J., & Goodman, R. S. (2022) · The Journal of Climate Change and Health · doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2022.100162 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Finkelstein, I., Langgut, D., Meiri, M., & Sapir-Hen, L. (2017) · Ägypten und Levante · doi:10.1553/aeundl27s249 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Increased Occurrence of Record‐Wet and Record‐Dry Months Reflect Changes in Mean Rainfall
Lehmann, J., Mempel, F., & Coumou, D. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079439 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts
Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., D'haen, S., Hare, W., Lissner, T., Ly, M., Nauels, A., Noblet, M., Pfleiderer, P., Pringle, P., et al. (2018) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Thalheimer, L., Schwarz, M. P., & Pretis, F. (2023) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102641 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa
Regan, P. M., & Kim, H. (2020) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01713-7 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways
Xie, X., Hao, M., Ding, F., Scheffran, J., Ide, T., Maystadt, J.-F., Qian, Y., Wang, Q., Chen, S., Wu, J., et al. (2024) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ad8a21 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea
Jun, T., & Sethi, R. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2021976118 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
COP26: what is the message for public health?
Masuda, J., McLaren, L., & Poland, B. (2022) · Canadian Journal of Public Health · doi:10.17269/s41997-022-00608-w · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Gupta, T. D., Carneiro, B., Schapendonk, F., Pacillo, G., Suza, M., & Läderach, P. (2023) · International Development Planning Review · doi:10.3828/idpr.2023.5 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Water Stress and Migration in Asia
Wrathall, D. J., & Van Den Hoek, J. (2022) · International Handbooks of Population · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-76433-3_9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., & Kushnir, Y.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2015-03-02
- Volume
- 112
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 3241-3246
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4371967
- OpenAlex
- W2155657253
- Cited by
- 1,379
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 72 · 2025: 75 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 137 · 2022: 108 · 2021: 156 · 2020: 202 · 2019: 128 · 2018: 134 · 2017: 113 · 2016: 108 · 2015: 33
- FWCI
- 106.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
- Funders
- DOE (DE-SC0005107)
- MURI (UCLA 2090 G QA272)
- GloDecH (NA10OAR4310137)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Fertile Crescent, climate change, precipitation trends, soil moisture, greenhouse gas forcing, drought attribution, Syrian civil war, natural variation
- MeSH terms
- Geography, Rain, Seasons, Syria, Time Factors, Droughts, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
