When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace after Civil Wars
Abstract
We argue that the duration of the peace after civil wars is mainly a function of the extent to which the outcome of the previous civil war preserved a condition of multiple sovereignty and the extent to which the post-civil war environment creates incentives for dissident groups to resort to violence rather than sustain the peace. Hazard models suggest that the outcome of the previous conflict does affect the duration of the peace, and this effect varies across time. The introduction of peacekeeping forces has a substantial positive effect on peace duration. We also find evidence of a curvilinear relationship between ethnic fractionalization and post-civil war peace duration. Based on these results, we conclude with recommendations for how peace can be maintained after a civil war.
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Conflict-induced grievances (CIGs) have an important influence on the resumption of conflict as they contribute to recurrence by facilitating the ability of rebel leaders to mobilize combatants and their potential supporters.
“CIGs have an important influence on the resumption of conflict (Backer and Kulkarni 2012, 12-14;Mason, Gurses, Brandt, and Quinn 2011, 179) as they contribute to recurrence by facilitating the ability of rebel leaders to mobilize combatants and their potential supporters.”
From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Mason, Gurses, Brandt, and Quinn 2011
Cites
Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths
Lacina, B., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2005) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-005-6851-6 · Cited by 784 · see citing works
Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War
Walter, B. F. (2004) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343304043775 · Cited by 690 · see citing works
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Loyle, C. E., & Appel, B. J. (2017) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqx045 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Post-Conflict Economic Recovery and Peace-Building
Bak, D., Lee, H., & Biglaiser, G. (2024) · Foreign Policy Analysis · doi:10.1093/fpa/orae032 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
- Authors
- David Mason, T., Gurses, M., Brandt, P. T., & Michael Quinn, J.
- Affiliations
- Florida Atlantic University (US)
- The University of Texas at Dallas (US)
- Venue
- International Studies Perspectives
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2011-05
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 171-189
- ISSN
- 1528-3577 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2122333765
- Cited by
- 210
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 35.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Studies Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Post-Soviet Geopolitical Dynamics
- Keywords
- civil war, post-conflict peace, peacekeeping forces, ethnic fractionalization, dissident groups, conflict recurrence, durable peace
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